Thomas Tuchel insists he’s going nowhere, but bookmakers are already pricing up his potential successor
England’s World Cup dream died in the cruellest way possible, and now the market is doing what it always does after a gutting tournament exit — asking who comes next. Pep Guardiola sits at the top of the odds to become England’s next permanent manager, with bookmakers reacting fast to his departure from Manchester City. But the man he’d be replacing, Thomas Tuchel, says he isn’t planning on leaving Wembley any time soon.
How England’s World Cup Collapsed in Atlanta
Anthony Gordon put England ahead against Argentina in the semi-final and, for a while, a first World Cup final appearance since 1966 looked within reach. Instead, England sat deeper and deeper, inviting the pressure that eventually broke them.
Enzo Fernandez levelled with a strike from distance in the 85th minute, and the killer blow arrived in injury time — Lionel Messi picking out Lautaro Martinez, who rose to head home the winner and send Argentina through to the final. For England, it was another tournament ending in the same familiar, agonising fashion: a lead surrendered, a golden chance wasted.
Source: https://x.com/HKane
The Substitutions That Sparked the Backlash
Tuchel’s changes in Atlanta have become the story almost as much as the result itself. As England tried to protect their 1-0 lead, the German manager threw on a string of defenders, shifting the shape to a back five — and, for a spell, six defenders on the pitch with 25 minutes still to play.
Wayne Rooney didn’t hold back on his assessment: he argued the switch left England without any outlet once possession was won, adding that the side looked physically and mentally spent the moment Argentina equalised.
Alan Shearer was similarly scathing, pointing out that England had gone from being praised for a defensive setup in earlier rounds to being punished for the same approach here. On social media, he summed it up bluntly: six defenders on with 25 minutes left, and no way to relieve the pressure.
Tuchel defended the calls, explaining that Argentina’s aerial threat and relentless crossing forced his hand. He said the switch to a back five was meant to close the gaps inside and stay strong in the air, while admitting the team became increasingly passive as the game wore on.
Why Tuchel Isn’t Actually Expected to Leave
Despite the storm, there’s no indication Tuchel’s job is genuinely at risk in the short term. He signed a contract extension five months ago that runs through to the end of Euro 2028, when England will co-host the tournament, and he confirmed after the final whistle that he intends to see it through.
That hasn’t stopped growing calls in some corners for an immediate change, nor has it stopped bookmakers from pricing up the market anyway. Tournament exits — especially ones this dramatic — tend to keep the succession conversation alive whether or not a change is imminent.
England Next Permanent Manager Odds
According to Stake odds, betting markets have moved quickly to reflect Guardiola’s availability following his Manchester City exit, with the Spaniard installed as clear favourite ahead of a long list of Premier League names, international bosses, and outsiders.
| Selection | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pep Guardiola | 3.75 |
| Eddie Howe | 4.50 |
| Lee Carsley | 7.00 |
| Mauricio Pochettino | 9.00 |
| Graham Potter | 13.00 |
| Frank Lampard | 15.00 |
| Carlo Ancelotti | 17.00 |
| Steven Gerrard | 21.00 |
| Kieran McKenna | 21.00 |
| Gareth Southgate | 26.00 |
| Unai Emery | 26.00 |
| Diego Simeone | 34.00 |
| Liam Rosenior | 34.00 |
| Julian Nagelsmann | 34.00 |
| Patrick Vieira | 34.00 |
| Brendan Rodgers | 34.00 |
| Luis Enrique | 34.00 |
| Sean Dyche | 34.00 |
| Michael Carrick | 34.00 |
| Vincent Kompany | 34.00 |
| Arne Slot | 34.00 |
| Mikel Arteta | 34.00 |
| Anthony Barry | 34.00 |
| Roberto Martinez | 34.00 |
| Cesc Fabregas | 34.00 |
| Fabian Hurzeler | 34.00 |
| Ralf Rangnick | 34.00 |
| Kasper Hjulmand | 34.00 |
| Robert De Zerbi | 34.00 |
Source: https://x.com/lnstantFoot
The Frontrunners Worth Watching
Pep Guardiola — The Name That Moves Markets
At 55, Guardiola is available for the first time in over a decade after walking away from the Etihad. His trophy haul at City speaks for itself, and simply being out of work is enough to make him the standout price at 3.75. Whether he’d actually want an international post after a career built on daily training-ground control is a separate question — but the market clearly isn’t ruling it out.
Eddie Howe — The Home-Grown Alternative
Currently at Newcastle, Howe’s odds of 4.50 reflect his standing as arguably the leading English candidate in club football right now. His work rebuilding Newcastle into a Champions League-calibre side has kept his name firmly in the conversation for any major vacancy, domestic or international.
Lee Carsley — The Man Who’s Already Done the Job
Carsley knows this environment better than anyone else on the list. He took interim charge after Gareth Southgate’s resignation in 2024, and his 7.00 price reflects a manager the FA has already trusted once, even if only on a temporary basis.
Mauricio Pochettino — The Wildcard From Across the Pond
Now in charge of the United States, Pochettino’s Premier League pedigree from his Tottenham days keeps him relevant to English audiences, priced at 9.00. A move from the USMNT job to England would be a significant swap, but not an implausible one given his history in the league.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Thomas Tuchel actually going to leave the England job?
There’s no confirmation of that. Tuchel signed a contract extension through Euro 2028 and stated after the Argentina defeat that he intends to fulfil it, despite heavy criticism of his tactics.
Why is Pep Guardiola the favourite if he’s never managed a national team?
Availability is doing most of the work here. Guardiola left Manchester City with no club job lined up, and bookmakers are pricing in the possibility that a manager of his calibre being free naturally raises the odds — regardless of whether an international role fits his career pattern.
Who are the outsiders worth a flutter?
Names like Nagelsmann, Kompany, and Slot sit deep in the field at 34.00, representing high-risk, high-reward punts rather than realistic frontrunners at this stage.
For readers looking to track how these odds shift as the situation develops, Tips.gg offers ongoing analysis and comparisons across the England managerial market and beyond.
What Comes Next for England
Nothing about Tuchel’s position changes overnight, whatever the tabloids and betting markets suggest. But World Cup semi-final exits have a habit of lingering, and with Euro 2028 on home soil now the next major target, every result between now and then will be viewed through the lens of whether this England side — and this manager — can finally get over the line. The market will keep moving. Whether the FA does is an entirely different matter.