Liam Duckstein
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England and Croatia meet again at Wembley on Thursday, five weeks after this exact fixture produced a 7-0 demolition in League A Group 3. Thomas Tuchel’s side sit second with nine points from four games, their only stumble a 2-3 defeat to leaders Spain. Croatia arrive with three points, a goal difference of minus ten and Slaven Bilic now in the dugout, tasked with repairing a defence that has leaked 14 goals in the group. There is a twist in the recent history too: before October’s 7-0, bookmakers made the draw the most likely outcome at 54%, and England answered with seven goals.
Two players shape this contest more than most. Harry Kane remains the focal point of England’s attack and the natural beneficiary of the space behind a retreating defence. Josko Gvardiol carries Croatia’s defensive burden, and his duel with England’s front line decides whether this stays competitive.
Hot stat: England have scored 14 goals across four group games and kept clean sheets in three of them, with the 7-0 over this very opponent on 3 October the standout line of the entire group stage.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 3 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Wembley Stadium, London |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
England vs Croatia prediction
Our main call is England to win with a -1.5 handicap. The straight home win trades around 1.24, a price with no margin for error, so the value sits one step deeper. England scored three or more goals in three of their four group matches, they have beaten Croatia twice in 2026 by a combined 11-2, and Croatia conceded 14 while scoring four across the same stretch. Even a rotated England eleven carries enough depth to clear a two-goal margin at Wembley. Winning here also sets up a straight fight with Spain for top spot in the final round, so expect Tuchel to select strong regardless of October’s scoreline.
On style of play: Tuchel’s England press high, transition quickly and punish any defence that drops deep, which is exactly the posture Croatia must adopt here. Bilic’s side will try to slow the game through midfield possession, an approach that collapsed twice against Spain and once against England already. Expect the visitors to commit fouls as England’s movement forces panicked clearances, and expect bookings to cluster on Croatian midfielders once the game stretches. England’s set-piece delivery then becomes the secondary weapon against a defence short of confidence.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | England to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
England’s last outing was a 3-0 win over Czech Republic on 6 October, a controlled display that made it three straight group wins and three clean sheets in four matches. Before it came the 7-0 against Croatia and a 2-0 over the same Czech side, 12 goals scored and none conceded across that run. The lone blemish of the window remains the 2-3 loss to Spain on 26 September. Ten wins from fifteen matches in 2026, including a 6-4 win over France in July, underline how relentless this team is in the final third.
Croatia’s most recent match ended 1-2 against Spain on 6 October, a competitive effort that still made it four defeats in five games. The surrounding results are grim: 0-7 against England, 1-4 against Spain, and a 1-2 World Cup defeat to Portugal in July. The only bright spot was a 2-1 win over Czech Republic on matchday one. Five wins from twelve matches in 2026 points to a generation in transition, and Bilic’s first job is structural, stopping the flow of goals at one end without losing what little threat remains at the other.
🚨Check out our dedicated England vs Croatia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: England the favourite
- Moneyline England 1.24 | Croatia 10.50
- Draw 6.20
The average bookmaker probability reads 76% England, 15% the draw and 9% Croatia, and the quoted prices mirror that almost exactly. England at 1.24 implies roughly 80%, a fair number for a side that just beat this opponent by seven. Croatia’s line stretches from 8.50 to 12.50 across books, which tells you how little faith anyone has in an away result. The draw at 6.20 is the trap; Croatia have barely led at any stage in the group and their defensive record makes a low-scoring stalemate far-fetched. Skip the moneyline and take England on the handicap instead.
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Croatia. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict England to win 4-0, perhaps by more if the visitors’ morale stays broken. The reverse fixture finished 7-0, England have scored 12 without reply across their last three group games, and this Croatia defence has no answer for the tempo. Back England -1.5 with confidence, add over 2.5 goals and leave both teams to score out of the slip. Kane to score at any time is the player angle we like most. To be honest, the only real question at Wembley is the size of the margin, not the winner.
