Liam Duckstein
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Empoli welcome Arezzo to Carlo Castellani in a fixture that looks straightforward on paper but carries a few wrinkles underneath. Empoli sit 8th after three rounds, level on points with several clubs above them but held back by a flat goal difference of zero. Arezzo, meanwhile, occupy 15th place with a -5 goal difference, the joint-worst mark in the entire division so far. That gap tells a story before a ball is even kicked, and it shapes how we approach this preview.
What makes this one interesting is the contrast in styles rather than the table position alone. Empoli have been solid without being spectacular, grinding out 1-0 and 1-1 results. Arezzo have been the opposite: capable of scoring goals but leaking them at an alarming rate on the road, including a heavy 5-0 defeat away at Verona in their last outing.
Two players stand out heading into this match. Edoardo Saporiti has been Empoli’s most productive midfielder in the last five games, scoring twice and racking up nine shots, and he tends to drift into pockets between the lines that Arezzo’s back four has struggled to close down this season. For the visitors, Camillo Tavernelli has been their most dangerous forward, contributing a goal and an assist while leading his side in shots with nine of his own. If Arezzo are going to trouble Empoli’s goal, it will likely run through him.
Hot stat: Arezzo have shipped five goals in a single match this season already (the 0-5 loss at Verona), yet they’ve only scored four goals total across their last five games combined. That defensive fragility away from home is the clearest red flag in this preview.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie B 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Carlo Castellani, Empoli |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Empoli vs Arezzo prediction
We predict Empoli to win this one, and the numbers back that view up rather comfortably. Empoli have lost only one of their last five matches, drawing twice and winning twice, while defending their home patch with more discipline than Arezzo have shown on their travels. Backing Empoli on the moneyline at home looks like the best value angle here, especially with the away side conceding heavily in recent weeks.
Empoli have committed more fouls than Arezzo across their last five matches (64 to 48) yet picked up double the yellow cards (12 to 6), which suggests referees have been stricter with their challenges even if the fouls themselves are less reckless. Arezzo, by contrast, have racked up 52 shots to Empoli’s 40 in the same span, showing they can be threatening in bursts, but their defensive interceptions figure (40) versus Empoli’s (19) hints at a side constantly forced into recovery mode rather than controlling matches. That defensive strain, perhaps more than anything else, is why we lean toward a low-scoring, controlled Empoli win rather than an open shootout.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Empoli win & Both Teams To Score No |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Empoli’s last five results read 1-0, 1-3, 1-0, 1-1, 1-1, a pattern that shows a team scoring just once per game but generally keeping things tight defensively, barring the 1-3 loss to Mantova. Their most recent match against Carrarese ended 1-0, a narrow but efficient win that fits the profile of a side comfortable grinding results out rather than chasing goals. That kind of composure at home, against a side as leaky as Arezzo, is exactly the type of matchup Empoli tend to handle well.
Arezzo’s recent form tells a rougher story. Their last five matches went 0-5, 2-3, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0, giving them two wins and three losses, and the goal difference across that stretch is firmly negative. The 0-5 collapse against Verona is the standout concern, a match where their defense simply had no answer once the game opened up. Arezzo can still score, evidenced by wins against Union Brescia and Avellino, but the concession rate away from home makes them vulnerable against a patient side like Empoli.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Empoli and Arezzo have no recent competitive meetings on record ahead of this fixture, so there isn’t a played head-to-head match to draw stats from this time around.
🚨Check out our dedicated Empoli vs Arezzo stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Empoli the favourite
- Moneyline Empoli 2.05 | Arezzo 3.80
- Draw 3.10
The market leans clearly toward Empoli, and the bookmakers’ average of 46% for a home win against just 25% for Arezzo lines up with what the underlying stats suggest. The draw at 29% feels a touch generous given how often Empoli have found a way to win low-scoring home games this season, but it’s not an unreasonable hedge considering neither side has been scoring freely of late.
Possible Starting Lineups
Empoli possible starting eleven
- GK: Jacopo Seghetti
- DF: Marco Curto, Cristian Cauz, Gabriele Indragoli, Joseph Ceesay
- MF: Luca Magnino, Gerard Yepes, Edoardo Saporiti, Luca Belardinelli, Lapo Deli
- FW: Filippo Di Stefano
Guido Pagliuca has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 shape across the last five matches, and the personnel above reflects the players with the most consistent minutes in that system. Seghetti has played every minute in goal, while Curto and Cauz anchor the defense with the highest playing time among the back line. Saporiti is the man to watch in the final third, given his two goals from midfield in the recent stretch, with Di Stefano leading the line as the most-used striker.
Arezzo possible starting eleven
- GK: Alessandro Nunziante
- DF: matteo gilli, Julian Illanes, Mauro Coppolaro, Andrea Cagnano
- MF: Alessandro Renzi, Artur Ioniță, mattia sala
- FW: Emiliano Pattarello, Camillo Tavernelli, Alessandro Arena
Cristian Bucchi has favored a 4-3-3 setup, and Nunziante has been the clear number one, playing every minute with 12 saves to his name. Renzi and Ioniță have logged full minutes in the middle, giving structure behind a front three where Tavernelli stands out as the creative spark. Arena adds width and shooting volume, though the whole unit will need a much tighter defensive performance than the one shown against Verona.
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Arezzo. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict a narrow but controlled Empoli win, most likely by a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline. Empoli’s home form has been built on discipline rather than firepower, and that profile matches up well against an Arezzo side that has struggled defensively on the road, shipping five goals in their last away trip. To be honest, Arezzo’s attack has enough quality through Tavernelli and Arena to worry Empoli in patches, but their inability to keep games tight makes the double result of Empoli win combined with under 2.5 goals our preferred angle. Our punters team leans firmly toward the home side here, with the goalless BTTS outcome as the value add-on.
