Sofia Quijada
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Ecuador host Costa Rica in a November friendly at the Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito, where the altitude traditionally makes life hard for visiting sides. Marcelo Gallardo takes charge of the home team, while Bryan Ruiz leads Costa Rica. Bookmakers back Ecuador heavily, with an average implied probability of 76% for the home win. Ecuador have struggled to convert their chances this year, so the price looks shorter than the recent form suggests.
The most eye-catching number belongs to Ecuador. They have scored only three goals in their last five matches, and they have kept a clean sheet in just one of them. Their attack has lacked a cutting edge, and that makes the home side less reliable than their favourite status implies.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Olimpico Atahualpa, Quito |
| 🗓️ Date: | 14.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Ecuador vs Costa Rica prediction
Ecuador are the side to back on the moneyline, but the price of 1.17 offers little return. We recommend the draw as the best value option. Ecuador have drawn both of their most recent matches, a 0-0 with Japan and a 1-1 with Panama, and they have managed only three goals in five games. Costa Rica have won their last two, yet their overall record this year is modest with two wins from seven. A cagey contest at altitude suits a draw, and the bookmakers price it around 16%, which underrates how often Ecuador have settled for a share of the points.
Both sides have shown they can keep matches tight. Ecuador rely on fewer chances, so their attacking output stays low even at home. Costa Rica have the more open record, conceding three in their 3-4 defeat to Curacao, yet they also kept two clean sheets in their recent wins. We expect a low-scoring game with little space in midfield, which points to one side scoring at most, and to be honest, Ecuador are more likely to be the side that holds on for a point.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
Team Analysis
Ecuador enter this fixture after a 1-1 draw with Panama, their most recent result. Before that, they drew 0-0 with Japan, which underlined a lack of clinical finishing. The earlier games were harder, with a 0-3 defeat to South Korea and a 0-2 loss to Mexico, although they did beat Germany 2-1. Across their last 15 results, Ecuador have won four, drawn eight and lost three, so the trend points to a team that rarely loses but struggles to win.
Costa Rica come into this game off a 2-0 win over Haiti, following a 3-0 victory against Nicaragua. Those two results gave them a strong short-term run, although they also suffered a 0-2 defeat to Haiti earlier and a 3-4 loss to Curacao. Over their last 15 matches, Costa Rica have recorded three wins, seven draws and five defeats. Their recent wins came with solid defensive shape, and that discipline should test an Ecuador attack that has not been prolific.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The teams have no recent competitive meetings in the available data, so no head-to-head statistics are shown for this fixture.
Check out our dedicated Ecuador vs Costa Rica stats page for more info.
Costa Rica. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ecuador the favourite
- Moneyline Ecuador 1.17 | Costa Rica 9.50
- Draw 5.50
The odds shown reflect bet365, which offers the shortest home price across the market, with other bookmakers ranging from 1.17 to 1.25 for Ecuador. The draw sits between 5.33 and 6.70, and Costa Rica range from 9.50 to 15.00. Ecuador deserve to be favourites on home advantage, yet a price near 1.17 implies a near-certain win that their recent form does not support. The draw at 5.50 carries better value, and we see it as the more realistic bet.
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Ecuador. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a cautious Ecuador performance, with the home side struggling to create clear chances and Costa Rica prepared to defend deep. Ecuador have scored only three goals in five matches, and their last two games ended level. Costa Rica have the better recent scoring form, yet their defensive record remains uneven. Our selection is the draw, with Under 2.5 goals as the secondary option. Both teams scoring is unlikely to land, since the home attack lacks the regular threat needed to beat a compact opponent.
