Liam Duckstein
Borussia Dortmund arrive at this July friendly in strong shape under new head coach Niko Kovac, carrying a perfect record in the last 30 days. Dusseldorf, managed by Alexander Ende, have been solid enough in pre-season with three wins from four recent outings, but the quality gap between these two German clubs is hard to ignore. What makes this fixture interesting is that Dortmund’s only previous friendly this month ended in a narrow 3-1 win, suggesting they are still finding their footing in attack despite the scoreline. One player to watch is Sehrou Guirassy, who already has a goal to his name in limited minutes and will be a constant threat in behind. For Dusseldorf, their attacking depth in the lower half of the friendly standings means any individual moment of quality could be the difference.
Jobe Bellingham is another name to keep an eye on for Dortmund. The younger Bellingham showed composure in midfield during the Oberhausen win, completing 37 of 42 passes and contributing to the press that unsettled their opponent throughout.
A hot stat worth noting: Dortmund scored four goals against Freiburg in their last competitive pre-season outing, showing they can cut loose against organised opposition when the pressing game clicks into gear.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026, July Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 13:00 CEST |
Dusseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
The bookmakers have this one heavily in Dortmund’s favour at 1.48, and the underlying data supports that view. Dortmund are ranked 10th in the world club rankings, while Dusseldorf sit at 233rd. That is not a gap that disappears in a friendly. Kovac’s side have won all four recent matches, while their attacking unit produced 17 shots and 8 corners in the Oberhausen game alone. Dusseldorf have shown promise against weaker opposition, putting five past DJK Teutonia and six past FC Monheim, but their only recent meeting with a side of comparable quality to Dortmund ended in a 0-2 loss to LASK.
We predict a Borussia Dortmund win to nil. Dusseldorf failed to score against LASK and their team stat block for the last five matches shows zero goals registered in that tracked period. Dortmund’s defensive structure, which allowed just one goal against Oberhausen, looks organised under Kovac’s 3-4-2-1 setup. The value here is on Dortmund winning and keeping a clean sheet rather than just a straight win.
Dortmund’s pass accuracy of 560 completed passes out of 643 attempts reflects a team that wants to control possession and move through the lines. Their seven fouls in the most recent tracked game suggest a disciplined approach rather than a physical one, which suits the friendly context. Dusseldorf, without available detailed stats, are harder to pin down stylistically, but their 3-4-1-2 shape suggests they will try to stay compact and hit on the counter. Against Dortmund’s quality, that strategy is unlikely to yield goals.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Borussia Dortmund to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Dusseldorf head into this fixture off the back of a 0-2 defeat to LASK, which was their most recent outing. That result followed back-to-back wins over Ruzomberok (2-0), DJK Teutonia (5-0), and FC Monheim (6-0), all against considerably weaker sides. The LASK loss was a reality check, and it came against a team ranked significantly below Dortmund’s level. Their 2026 season win rate sits at 45%, which is acceptable but not dominant. In the friendly standings, they are positioned 123rd with 9 points from four games, which tells a story of comfortable wins against limited opposition rather than genuine progress against top-level resistance.
Borussia Dortmund’s last match was a 3-1 win over Oberhausen, a comfortable result that came with 17 shots, 10 interceptions, and 8 corners. The match stats show a team in control of territory and tempo. Their previous outings in pre-season included a 2-0 win over Werder Bremen, a 3-2 win over Eintracht Frankfurt, and a 4-0 demolition of Freiburg. The only blip was a 0-1 loss to Borussia Monchengladbach, which appears to have been a one-off. Dortmund’s 2026 win rate of 63% from 24 matches is the stronger of the two, and their form over the past 30 days is perfect: one match, one win. Kovac has clearly made an immediate impact on the squad’s organisation and attacking intent.
🚨Check out our dedicated Dusseldorf vs Borussia Dortmund stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite
- Moneyline Dusseldorf 4.90 | Borussia Dortmund 1.48
- Draw 4.80
The 1.48 on Dortmund reflects a bookmaker consensus that aligns tightly with the 62% win probability implied by the average bookmaker data. To be honest, that price still carries value given Dortmund’s recent form, the quality gap between the squads, and Dusseldorf’s inability to score against LASK. The draw at 4.80 is not worth chasing. Dusseldorf at 4.90 is a pure upset play with very little statistical backing. We see Dortmund winning comfortably, and the clean sheet angle is the sharper bet at these prices.
Possible Starting Lineups
Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Meyer
- DF: Yan Couto, Almugera Kabar, Filippo Mane, Luca Reggiani, Kouakou Joane Gadou
- MF: Jobe Bellingham, Justin Lerma
- FW: Sehrou Guirassy, Samuele Inacio, Fábio Silva
Dortmund are lining up in their preferred 3-4-2-1 shape, with Kovac deploying a back three of Kabar, Mane, and Reggiani. Patrick Drewes featured in the second half against Oberhausen, so Meyer and Drewes are likely to split minutes again here. Guirassy leads the line and is the primary goal threat, already on the scoresheet in limited pre-season action. Jobe Bellingham pulls the strings in central midfield and is the player most capable of unlocking Dusseldorf’s compact defensive block. Mathis Albert and Fábio Silva provide options off the front, with Albert’s pressing work particularly useful in the early phases of a match. Lerma adds energy and defensive cover in the midfield two.
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Borussia Dortmund. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Borussia Dortmund are the clear pick here. The world ranking gap is enormous, Dortmund’s recent form is near-perfect, and Dusseldorf’s inability to score against LASK is a genuine red flag heading into a match against far superior opposition. Kovac’s side produced 17 shots, 8 corners, and 10 interceptions in their last outing, pointing to a team that dominates territory and wins the physical battle. We predict a Dortmund win to nil, with over 2.5 goals the secondary play given Dortmund’s attacking output across their pre-season fixtures. Both teams to score lands as a firm no, and the corners market over 7.5 is attractive given Dortmund’s tendency to pin opponents back and work the wide areas repeatedly in their 3-4-2-1 system.
