Liam Duckstein
Dinamo Zagreb host Thun at Stadion Maksimir in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Second Qualifying Round tie. The first leg ended 1-1 in Zagreb last week, meaning neither side holds an advantage heading into this decider. The aggregate score is level, and Dinamo need a win to advance, while Thun only need to avoid defeat to cause a genuine upset. Mario Kovacevic’s side have been one of the most consistent teams in the region this year, and their home record gives them a clear edge on paper.
Miha Zajc is the man to watch for Dinamo Zagreb. The midfielder has scored both of the club’s goals across the last two matches and carries the most direct attacking threat from deep. For Thun, Brighton Labeau leads the line with two goals in three recent appearances, and his movement in behind the defensive line could be the difference if Thun look to hit on the counter.
A hot stat worth flagging: Thun have registered 52 total shots across their last five matches compared to Dinamo’s 40, which is a notable edge in volume for a side widely considered the underdog in this tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun Prediction
Dinamo Zagreb are the clear favourites here, and the context of the tie makes them even more likely to push forward aggressively from the first whistle. They are playing at home, they know a draw eliminates them on away goals if that rule applies, or forces extra time, and their overall season form is considerably stronger than Thun’s. With 22 wins from 31 matches this year and a 60% win rate in the last 30 days, Dinamo have the quality and motivation to get the job done.
Thun arrive with their own confidence after a 3-1 win over Luzern in their most recent league outing, but their form across the broader stretch has been inconsistent, with several defeats mixed in. Jeff Strasser’s team set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape and tend to sit deeper when facing stronger opponents. That defensive posture, combined with Dinamo’s home pressure, points toward a low-to-moderate scoring game with the hosts finding the net.
Dinamo commit relatively few fouls (26 across five matches) and maintain decent ball circulation with 820 passes recorded. Thun foul far more aggressively, racking up 48 fouls in the same window, which suggests they apply pressure through disruption rather than possession. With 7 yellow cards in five matches, Thun’s disciplinary record could become a factor if the game gets tense in the second half. Their 47 interceptions also reflect a team that defends by volume rather than structure, which Dinamo’s technical midfield should be able to exploit.
We predict Dinamo Zagreb to win this match. The home advantage, superior season record, and the pressure of needing a result all point in the same direction.
- Dinamo Zagreb to Win
- Over 1.5 Goals
- Dinamo Zagreb to Score in Both Halves
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Dinamo Zagreb to Score in Both Halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Dinamo Zagreb have been steady without being spectacular in their recent run. Three wins and two draws from their last five matches, with no losses, speaks to a team that knows how to manage games. Their biggest result in that stretch was a 9-0 dismantling of Brinje Grosuplje, though that opponent’s ranking makes it a limited reference point. More relevant is the 4-2 win over Koper and the 3-0 defeat of Radomlje, both of which showed Dinamo can be clinical when the opposition offers space. The 0-0 draw with LNZ and the 1-1 with Thun in the first leg show they can also be contained when opponents sit deep and stay organized.
Thun’s recent form has been more mixed. Their 3-1 win over Luzern was an encouraging result ahead of this second leg, with the team looking sharp going forward. Before that, their preparations included a 1-2 loss to Mannheim and a 1-1 draw with Elversberg, both in friendlies or warm-up fixtures against lower-ranked opposition. The 6-2 win over Xamax showed Thun can score freely when given room, and Brighton Labeau and Nicolas Bürgy have both contributed goals in recent weeks. The concern is consistency. Thun’s form over a longer stretch includes multiple losses, and they will need a near-perfect defensive performance to take anything from Zagreb.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Dinamo Zagreb | Thun |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 40 | 52 |
| Free kicks | 38 | 37 |
| Corner kicks | 10 | 24 |
| Total fouls | 26 | 48 |
| Interceptions | 18 | 47 |
| Offsides | 6 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Dinamo Zagreb the Favourite
- Moneyline Dinamo Zagreb 1.36 | Thun 7.75
- Draw 4.99
The odds reflect the bookmakers’ confidence in Dinamo Zagreb, with the hosts priced around 1.36 across most books. That aligns with the 69% win probability the market assigns them. Thun at 7.75 is a long price, but their ability to grind out the first leg draw means they cannot be entirely dismissed. The draw at around 5.00 looks too generous given how competitive the first leg was, but we still lean toward Dinamo getting the job done at home.
Possible Starting Lineups
Dinamo Zagreb Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ivan Filipović
- DF: Sergi Dominguez, Scott Mckenna, Bruno Goda, Moris Valincic
- MF: Josip Mišić, Miha Zajc, Gabriel Vidović, Mislav Oršić
- FW: Dion Drena Beljo, Fran Topic
Dinamo are expected to line up in their familiar 4-4-2. Ivan Filipović gets the nod in goal based on playing time data. Scott Mckenna anchors the back four alongside Bruno Goda, with Sergi Dominguez and Moris Valincic as the wide defenders. Miha Zajc is the standout pick in midfield after scoring twice in the last two matches, and his partnership with Josip Mišić in the centre should give Dinamo control. Mislav Oršić provides creativity from wide areas, while Dion Drena Beljo leads the line with Fran Topic offering support and movement. Topic’s two assists in recent appearances make him a genuine creative force despite limited minutes.
Thun Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Niklas Steffen
- DF: Marco Burki, Jan Bamert, Michael Heule, Fabio Fehr
- MF: Justin Roth, Valmir Matoshi, Nico Maier, Nassim Zoukit
- FW: Brighton Labeau, Marc Gutbub
Thun should set up in their 4-2-3-1 shape, with Niklas Steffen in goal after making 9 saves across three matches. The back four of Burki, Bamert, Heule, and Fehr offers experience, with Fabio Fehr particularly active in the build-up phase. Justin Roth and Valmir Matoshi screen the defence, while Nico Maier and Nassim Zoukit add creativity higher up. Brighton Labeau is the key attacking threat, with two goals in three games and the pace to cause problems on the break. Marc Gutbub operates in support, providing the link between midfield and attack.
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Dinamo Zagreb. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This second leg has the shape of a tense, low-scoring affair that Dinamo Zagreb eventually control. The first leg proved Thun are capable of competing, but playing at Stadion Maksimir with a must-win mandate shifts the dynamic firmly toward the hosts. Dinamo’s season record of 22 wins from 31 matches is not a fluke, and their home crowd adds another layer of pressure that Thun’s inconsistent form will struggle to absorb.
Miha Zajc is in form and central to everything Dinamo do going forward. Thun’s high foul count and heavy reliance on interceptions suggest they will try to disrupt rather than outplay, but Dinamo’s passing structure and disciplined shape should wear them down. We predict a 2-0 Dinamo Zagreb win. To be honest, the clean sheet looks attainable given Thun’s limited attacking output in tight matches, and Dinamo scoring in both halves is perhaps the most logical way this game unfolds.
