Dinamo Tbilisi vs Zalgiris Prediction: 23 July 2026 UEFA Conference League

Dinamo Tbilisi welcome Zalgiris to the Mikheil Meskhi Stadium on 23 July in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League Second Qualifying Round. Temur Ketsbaia’s side will be eager to make home advantage count, but they arrive into this tie in noticeably worse form than their Lithuanian opponents. Zalgiris have won four of their last five matches, dropping only a single draw, while Dinamo Tbilisi managed just two wins in five, with two defeats included. The contrast in momentum is stark.

For Dinamo Tbilisi, forward Algassime Bah has been one of the few bright spots, scoring in the recent Conference League qualifier against Mondorf and staying on the pitch for the full 90 minutes in both legs. On the Zalgiris side, Stanislav Bilenkyi is the attacker to watch, netting in the most recent league outing and putting in consistent minutes across both games tracked.

The hot stat from this fixture context: Zalgiris produced 31 total shots across their last five matches, compared to just 22 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The Lithuanian side’s attacking output has been meaningfully higher, and that difference in shot volume could prove decisive over 90 minutes.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Zalgiris Prediction

Zalgiris arrive as the in-form side, and the numbers back that up. An 80% win rate over the last 30 days, four wins from five, and a goal tally of five in their last five matches all point to a team operating with real confidence. Dinamo Tbilisi, by contrast, have struggled for consistency in Georgian league play, drawing several matches and falling to defeats against sides ranked well below the European level.

Playing at home gives Dinamo Tbilisi a lift, and the bookmakers reflect that with a slight edge in their favour. The Mikheil Meskhi Stadium crowd can be a factor. To be honest, though, the form gap is too wide to ignore, and Zalgiris have shown they can grind out results as well as win convincingly. We predict Zalgiris to take something from this first leg, with the match potentially finishing level or with a narrow Zalgiris win.

In terms of style, Dinamo Tbilisi’s discipline has been a concern. Their three yellow cards across recent matches and a tendency toward foul-heavy play could invite set-piece danger for Zalgiris. Zalgiris, by comparison, collected only two yellow cards in the same period and appear better organised. Both sides favour a 4-2-3-1 shape, so the midfield battle will be central to how the game opens up. Dinamo Tbilisi’s 17 corner kicks in five matches suggests they push forward with width, but Zalgiris’ defensive solidity has not been tested severely in recent weeks. The corner count for Zalgiris sits at just 5, suggesting they are efficient rather than reliant on wide delivery.

Team Analysis

Dinamo Tbilisi have had a mixed run heading into this qualifier. Their two-legged tie against Mondorf ended with a 2-1 win at home followed by a 0-1 defeat away, which shows they are capable of performing at the Mikheil Meskhi but struggle to replicate that on the road. Before Mondorf, they drew 0-0 with Dila Gori, lost 0-1 to Iberia, and beat Dinamo Batumi 2-1. That sequence, three draws and two losses from five across domestic play before the European leg, paints the picture of a side that has been inconsistent all season. Their year-long win rate sits at 27%, which is low for a team expected to compete in European qualifying. Ketsbaia’s men will need to be sharper in the final third if they want to take a lead into the second leg.

Zalgiris have been in excellent shape. Their most recent result was a 3-1 league win over Transinvest, following a 2-1 victory over OFK Petrovac in the Conference League qualifier first leg and a 3-1 win in the second. Before that, a 3-0 win over Siauliai showed their attacking confidence. The only blemish in the run was a 0-0 draw with Dziugas Telsiai, which came against a side rated significantly higher than most of their recent opponents. Andrius Skerla’s team have won 16 of 29 matches this year at a 55% win rate, and their current form across the last 30 days is the best of the two sides by a considerable margin.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Dinamo Tbilisi vs Zalgiris stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Dinamo Tbilisi the Favourite

• Moneyline Dinamo Tbilisi 2.05 | Zalgiris 3.40
• Draw 3.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The market makes Dinamo Tbilisi slight favourites, largely due to home advantage. Zalgiris at 3.40 represents real value given their recent form. A draw at around 3.10 is also worth considering, as first-leg European qualifiers often finish tight. We lean toward the Zalgiris Double Chance as the safest way to back the form team without fully dismissing a home side playing in front of their own supporters.

Possible Starting Lineups

Dinamo Tbilisi Possible Starting Eleven

Ketsbaia has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 shape in recent weeks. Giorgi Loria is expected between the posts, with Kalandadze and Kurdic providing the defensive spine. Barnes Osei picked up a yellow card recently and will need to be careful in the midfield press. Algassime Bah is the most direct goal threat up front, having scored in the Mondorf tie, and Mate Vatsadze offers another attacking option. The squad depth is limited, so the starting eleven should look close to this selection.

Zalgiris Possible Starting Eleven

Skerla’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors what Dinamo Tbilisi will line up with, making the midfield contest particularly interesting. Vincentas Sarkauskas takes the goalkeeper spot, having logged 180 minutes in the recent qualifying run. Paulius Golubickas contributed an assist and has been steady in the engine room, while Deividas Šešplaukis also chipped in with a creative contribution from a wide role. Stanislav Bilenkyi leads the line and is the most dangerous attacker in this squad based on recent output. Bryan Silva Teixeira provides pace and movement off the bench or from a wide position.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This first leg has the hallmarks of a tight, low-scoring affair. Dinamo Tbilisi will push hard at home, but their domestic form in 2026 has been poor, and they were knocked out of the Mondorf tie on aggregate despite winning the first leg. Zalgiris are a more settled and confident side right now. Their attacking numbers are superior, their discipline is better, and they have already shown they can win on the road in European competition.

We predict a narrow Zalgiris win or a draw. The Zalgiris Double Chance is our primary recommendation. For goals, we lean toward Under 2.5, as European qualifier first legs tend to be cautious, and neither side has been free-scoring in recent weeks. Dinamo Tbilisi’s corner count suggests they will create width, but Zalgiris have conceded very little in their recent run, and we do not expect that to change drastically here.

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