Liam Duckstein
Derry City host CSKA Sofia at Brandywell Stadium on 16 July 2026 in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round. The Irish side come into this match trailing 2-3 from the first leg, meaning they must win to advance. Tiernan Lynch’s men are in a difficult spot: they need a result at home, yet the bookmakers rate their chances at just 28%. CSKA Sofia, coached by Hristo Yanev, arrive having won four of their last five matches across all competitions and carrying genuine momentum.
Liam Boyce is the player to watch for Derry City. He has scored three goals across the last five matches and leads the line with real purpose. For CSKA Sofia, midfielder Bruno Jordão stands out with two goals in his last two appearances and has been central to the Bulgarian side’s build-up play.
Hot stat: CSKA Sofia have scored in every one of their last five matches, netting 11 goals in total across that run, including three in the first leg against Derry City.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, First Qualifying Round |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Prediction
CSKA Sofia are the stronger side on paper and in recent form. They hold a one-goal lead from the first leg and have won 61% of their matches this year compared to Derry City’s 27%. The Bulgarians also carry a significantly better world club ranking. Derry City must chase the game, which opens up space for CSKA on the counter.
The first leg already produced five goals between these two sides, and we expect goals again here. Derry City will be forced to push forward, and CSKA Sofia have the quality to exploit the gaps. We predict CSKA Sofia to win and both teams to score, given Derry’s need to attack and Sofia’s clinical finishing.
Derry City have committed 11 fouls across their last five matches and picked up seven yellow cards, suggesting they play with some aggression and intensity. CSKA Sofia, by contrast, have recorded zero yellow cards across the same period, which points to a disciplined, composed style that tends to frustrate opponents and win set pieces. Derry’s tendency to foul could hand Sofia free kick opportunities in dangerous areas, adding another avenue for the away side to threaten.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | CSKA Sofia to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Derry City’s recent form has been inconsistent. Over the last 30 days they have managed just one draw and one loss in two matches, with a win rate of zero percent. Across the full year they have won only seven of 26 games. Their form sequence shows a pattern of draws and defeats, with wins coming in isolated bursts rather than sustained runs. They did beat Bohemians 4-1 in late June, but that result looks like an outlier given the quality of opposition. Losses to Dundalk and CSKA Sofia followed, and they have scored just five goals across their last five matches.
CSKA Sofia arrive in much better shape. In the last 30 days they have won four of five matches with an 80% win rate, and across the year they have won 19 of 31 games. Their only recent blip was a 0-4 defeat to Polissya, but they responded immediately by beating Brinje Grosuplje 2-1 and Odra Opole 3-2, then Marek 3-0, and Derry City 3-2. Their attacking output is strong, and the squad includes players with European and international pedigree. Ioannis Pittas has scored four goals in just two appearances, making him a genuine threat every time he touches the ball in the final third.
🚨Check out our dedicated Derry City vs CSKA Sofia stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: CSKA Sofia the Favourite
- Moneyline Derry City 3.40–3.85 | CSKA Sofia 1.75–2.02
- Draw 3.30–3.76
The odds reflect the form gap clearly. CSKA Sofia are priced between 1.75 and 2.02 across the main bookmakers, making them solid favourites. Derry City range from 3.20 to 3.85, which is fair given their poor recent win rate and the first-leg deficit. The draw odds sit around 3.50, which seems generous considering the elimination pressure on Derry to win outright. We see value in backing CSKA Sofia at the higher end of the available range, particularly at 2.02 with Vave.
Possible Starting Lineups
Derry City Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Brian Maher
- DF: Patrick McClean, Barry Cotter, Cameron Dummigan, Brandon Fleming
- MF: James McClean, Carl Winchester, James Olayinka
- FW: Michael Duffy, Liam Boyce, Kévin Santos
Tiernan Lynch is likely to set up in a 4-3-3 formation, matching the shape used in recent matches. Brian Maher starts in goal. The back four picks itself, with Patrick McClean and Barry Cotter both logging 270 minutes across the last five games. James Olayinka offers a goal threat from midfield, having scored twice in three appearances. Liam Boyce leads the attack and will be relied upon heavily to produce the goals Derry need to overturn the deficit.
CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Fedor Lapoukhov
- DF: Facundo Rodriguez, Ángelo Martino, David Samuel Custódio Lima
- MF: Bruno Jordão, Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Isaac Solet Bomawoko, James Eto’o
- FW: Ioannis Pittas, Santiago Godoy, Mohamed Brahimi
Hristo Yanev is expected to deploy a 4-4-2 shape, consistent with recent outings. Fedor Lapoukhov gets the nod in goal based on playing time. The defensive unit, anchored by Facundo Rodriguez and David Samuel Custódio Lima, has been reliable. Bruno Jordão is the key figure in midfield and has contributed two goals recently. Ioannis Pittas is the standout name in attack, four goals in two games is a record that speaks for itself, and he is the primary danger for Derry’s backline.
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CSKA Sofia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
The numbers point strongly toward CSKA Sofia. They are the better-ranked side, the in-form team, and they already hold a first-leg lead. Derry City will need to attack from the first whistle, and that creates the open game Sofia will want to exploit. The first leg produced five goals and ten corners per team, which supports an expectation of an open, high-energy contest again.
We predict CSKA Sofia to win this match and progress. Derry will likely score given their need to push forward, but Sofia have the firepower to punish them on the break. Our main selection is a CSKA Sofia win with both teams scoring. The hot tip of CSKA Sofia scoring in both halves also holds genuine value, given their consistent goal output across recent matches and the pressure Derry will face to leave space at the back.
