Derby vs Leeds Prediction: 11.01.2026 FA Cup 2025/26

The FA Cup never fails to throw up ties charged with history, emotion, and intrigue, and this Round of 64 clash at Pride Park Stadium is no exception. Derby County, a club that’s no stranger to the pitch’s dramatic turns, hosts Leeds United in a match that pits Championship resolve against proven Premier League ambition. Derby, under the guidance of John Eustace, have been patchy yet occasionally inspired in recent outings, while Daniel Farke’s Leeds side have struggled for consistent results but remain stacked with technical quality and attacking firepower. Both sides have shown flashes in attack but have also demonstrated a propensity to concede under pressure, making this a fascinating encounter to assess for neutrals and punters alike.

Among the many storylines, two players demand attention: Derby’s Rhian Brewster, whose drive and knack for being in the right place has paid dividends even in tough games, and Leeds’ Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is enjoying a prolific run in the cup and carries Leeds’ attacking hopes on his broad shoulders. These two could well be the difference-makers in what promises to be a high-octane affair.

The “hot stat”? Leeds have netted nine goals over their last five matches—a considerable attacking uptick that outpaces Derby’s five. The difference in firepower could tip the balance in this cup showdown.

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Derby vs Leeds prediction

Given current form, squad strengths, and recent match statistics, Leeds are the clear frontrunners. Their nine goals in the last five games and a pass accuracy rate hovering around 77% highlight both cutting edge and composure in possession. Derby, while resilient and known for digging deep at home, have struggled in attack and have leaked goals against high-calibre opposition.

Expect Leeds to press high, force errors, and drive play through the likes of Brenden Aaronson and Calvert-Lewin. Farke’s 3-4-2-1 system is tailored for quick recoveries and dynamic transitions, while Derby’s recent 4-2-3-1 provides them with defensive width but often isolates their forward line.

Discipline could play a decisive role. Derby’s seven yellow cards and a slightly higher foul count versus Leeds’ five yellows in the last five matches suggest that Eustace’s men may be forced to defend deeper and risk more set pieces. Both sides are familiar with competitive football’s rough-and-tumble, but Leeds’ superior corner and set-piece conversion numbers might just be the edge.

Team Analysis

Derby’s recent run: The Rams come into this after a tough 1-2 loss to Wrexham, despite showing sparks of creativity in midfield. Their last five have produced a win (against Middlesbrough), but also a trio of draws and some hard-luck losses to Leicester and Birmingham. Defensive frailty, particularly late in games, has cost them dearly. Standout performances have come from Rhian Brewster—who grabbed a goal and an assist—and Bobby Clark’s energetic midfield bursts. However, goal-scoring remains a concern, with just five goals from 46 shots in recent matches.

Leeds’ recent run: Leeds suffered a narrow 3-4 loss in a thriller against Newcastle but previously held Manchester United to a 1-1 draw and kept Liverpool at bay in a credible 0-0. Daniel Farke’s side have found the net nine times in five matches but continue to give up chances, especially against flair attacks. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the form man, consistently troubling defences and adding four goals to his name, while Brenden Aaronson’s creativity and work rate have elevated the Whites’ attacking threat. Ball progression is seamless in midfield, but gaps at the back remain a question mark.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Derby vs Leeds stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Leeds the favourite

• Moneyline Derby 4.60 | Leeds 1.80
• Draw 3.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.87
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.89 | No 1.92

Bookmakers heavily favour Leeds, and there’s wisdom in that stance. Their superior recent scoring form (and attacking xG) against Derby’s leaky defence paints a picture of likely away dominance. However, FA Cup drama is no myth—underdogs have thrived in these rounds before!

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Possible Starting Lineups

Derby possible starting eleven

John Eustace looks set to maintain his preferred 4-2-3-1 formation, providing Derby with decent defensive structure and midfield balance. Jacob Widell Zetterström keeps goal after playing every match in the recent run. Defensively, Clarke and Elder have been consistent, while Bobby Clark’s tenacity in midfield could be key to stifling Leeds’ quick attacks. Up front, Brewster gets the nod as the main striker, supported by Agyemang and Brereton—both diligent in the press and always game for a counter-attack.

Leeds possible starting eleven

Daniel Farke will almost certainly stick with his 3-4-2-1 system that has yielded a flurry of attacking chances in recent weeks. Lucas Perri remains the reliable last line, with Struijk and Bijol vital to playing from the back. Watch for Calvert-Lewin, whose clinical finishing and movement around the six-yard box will trouble Derby all afternoon. Aaronson, buzzing between the lines, and Stach’s box-to-box dynamism are likely to be central to Leeds’ efforts to control the midfield and create overloads in wide areas.

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My take on the Match

This is a classic FA Cup fixture brimming with storyline and individual flair! While Derby will look to grind out a result in front of their home faithful, it’s hard to ignore the superior match sharpness and attacking cohesion Leeds bring to the table. Expect Derby to battle, perhaps even draw first blood, but over the 90 minutes, Leeds’ power through Aaronson and Calvert-Lewin should make the difference. My main pick: Leeds to win, with both teams finding the net in a fiercely competitive cup tie.

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