Sofia Quijada
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Primera A Clausura action closes in Iwag, where Deportes Tolima host Millonarios at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro. Four points separate these sides, yet their profiles could hardly differ more. Millonarios have lost twice in 17 league rounds and drawn nine, a tally matched only by Fortaleza, while Tolima sit 11th and just stopped a three-match slide with a 3-1 home win over Deportivo Pereira. History leans blue: Millonarios won three of the last four meetings, including a 2-0 victory at this ground in April.
Two names shape this fixture. Adrián Parra has three goals and an assist in his last four Tolima appearances, the sharpest tool Luis Fernando Suárez can point at a defence conceding 0.82 league goals per game. Juan Cuadrado drives Millonarios: twelve shots, eleven free kicks taken and an assist across his last three matches, and his delivery decides most of the visitors’ set-piece threat.
The hot stat belongs to the visitors. Millonarios are unbeaten in eight matches, five of them draws, and their 14 goals conceded rank third-fewest in the Clausura. Tolima, by contrast, kept a single clean sheet in their last five.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026, Clausura (Colombia) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:10 CEST |
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios prediction
We predict a 1-1 draw, and we back it without hesitation. Tolima’s 2.14 looks short for a team with one win in five whose only recent success came against 16th-placed Pereira. The three matches before it produced three defeats and seven goals conceded. Millonarios’ structure travels well: two defeats all season, a 0-0 with second-placed America de Cali last time out, and a 2-0 win here in April. With the visitors drawing five of their last six, the tie at 3.10 is where the value sits.
Expect a bumpy, low-tempo contest. Tolima commit 9.6 fouls per game and collect three yellow cards per match, so interruptions and set pieces will pile up. Suárez’s side also attempts more passes (1,809 across five games) and wins more corners (23 to 15), signs of territorial control with little end product. Millonarios foul less, sit in a mid-block and strike in transition, completing 86% of their passes to Tolima’s 83%. Neither team converted a direct free kick in the last five, so Cuadrado’s corners and Ruiz’s movement in the box carry the creative weight.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Millonarios double chance (X2) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Tolima’s November started with a response. The 3-1 home win over Deportivo Pereira ended a run of three straight defeats: 0-1 to Deportivo Pasto, 1-2 to Aguilas Doradas and 2-3 to Jaguares de Cordoba. A 0-0 with leaders Atletico Nacional preceded that slump and shows the ceiling this squad reaches when compact. Parra’s three goals in four matches give the attack direction, Ever Valencia adds a goal and an assist from the supporting line, and Homer Martinez’s 184 completed passes mark him as the build-up hub. The problem is defensive: one clean sheet in five and 15 yellow cards that invite suspensions down the stretch.
Alberto Gamero’s men keep collecting points without fireworks. Four draws in five, the latest a goalless share with second-placed America de Cali on 4 November, plus a 4-1 win over Jaguares de Cordoba as the only high-scoring outlier. Matches against Once Caldas, Fortaleza and Barranquilla FC all finished 1-1, a pattern of controlled, low-event football. Daniel Ruiz scored twice in three games, Leonardo Castro supplied two assists, and Javier Burrai’s five saves anchor a defence conceding 0.82 per league match. The attack averages 1.41 goals, enough to edge tight games, rarely enough to blow them open.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Millonarios own this fixture lately: 2-0 in the 2026 Apertura, 2-0 in the 2025 Apertura and 1-0 in the 2024 Clausura. Tolima’s lone success came in the 2025 Clausura, 3-1, and they failed to score in three of the four meetings. The table below compares both squads’ numbers across their last five matches.
| Statistic | Deportes Tolima | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 5 |
| Total shots | 57 | 61 |
| Free kicks | 42 | 40 |
| Corner kicks | 23 | 15 |
| Total fouls | 48 | 35 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 83 | 86 |
| Interceptions | 23 | 17 |
| Offsides | 6 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Deportes Tolima the favourite
- Moneyline Deportes Tolima 2.14 | Millonarios 3.25
- Draw 3.10
The consensus model hands Tolima 43%, the draw 29% and Millonarios 28%, and the average prices mirror that split almost exactly. Our read puts more weight on Millonarios’ two defeats in 17 rounds and their three wins from four in this fixture. A 43% home win probability for a side with one victory in five feels generous, so the draw at 3.10 stands out as the price to take, with X2 covering the angles if Tolima nick it late.
Possible Starting Lineups
Deportes Tolima possible starting eleven
- GK: Alvino Volpi Neto
- DF: Junior Hernandez, Jherson Mosquera, Juan Jose Mera Gonzalez, Shean Barbosa
- MF: Brayan Rovira, Homer Martinez, Luis Sanchez, Jorge Hurtado, Ever Valencia
- FW: Adrián Parra
The 4-2-3-1 picks itself from recent usage. Volpi Neto has held the shirt for three straight full games ahead of Miguel Ortega. Rovira and Homer Martinez shield the back four, with Junior Hernandez and Mosquera the most-used men in the defensive line and Barbosa keeping his place over Jan Angulo. Luis Sanchez’s two goals from two starts earn him a wide role, Hurtado offers an assist threat from the middle, and Parra leads the line after three goals in four. Edwar López and Sergio Aguayo provide fresh legs from the bench.
Millonarios possible starting eleven
- GK: Javier Burrai
- DF: Danovis Banguero, Sergio Mosquera, Jaine Barreiro, Samuel Martín Díaz
- MF: Juan Cuadrado, Stiven Vega, David Silva, Rodrigo Ureña
- FW: Leonardo Castro, Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera
Gamero stays loyal to his 4-4-2. Burrai starts after three consecutive full matches, and the back four of Banguero, Sergio Mosquera, Barreiro and Díaz has kept the league’s third-fewest goals conceded. Cuadrado and Ureña flank Vega and David Silva, with Cuadrado on corner and free-kick duty. Castro and Ruiz partner up front after combining for three goal involvements in the last three games. Andrey Estupinan, two goals in three, and Rodrigo Contreras push hard for starts if Gamero wants more punch in the final third.
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Millonarios. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Everything points to a tight, scrappy affair. Tolima control territory without converting it, Millonarios defend superbly and draw relentlessly, and three of the last four meetings stayed under 2.5 goals. We predict a 1-1 final score, with the draw at 3.10 as the value play, the X2 double chance as insurance, under 2.5 goals and under 9.5 corners completing the card. Parra against a defence conceding 0.82 per game is the duel that breaks the pattern, and perhaps Cuadrado’s delivery settles it the other way. To be honest, we see no case for backing Tolima at 2.14 against an opponent beaten twice all season, so the away side’s resilience plus the draw is our strongest angle.
