Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction: 10.05.2026 Primera A 2026 Apertura Quarterfinals

Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Pasto meet in the Apertura Quarterfinals at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibague. Two Colombian sides familiar with each other, both under new managers this season, will lock horns for a spot in the semifinals. Tolima’s squad depth and Pasto’s recent surge set up a compelling clash. Adrián Parra’s work rate and Andrey Estupiñan’s recent finishing could prove decisive. Notably, Deportes Tolima have racked up nine goals in their last five matches, showcasing offensive momentum. Pasto’s defensive discipline remains a factor, but their away form faces a stiff test against Tolima’s home record. The “hot stat”: Tolima averaged 15.8 total shots per game over their last five outings, triple Pasto’s output in the same span.

Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto prediction

We predict Deportes Tolima to secure a home win. The squad’s offensive numbers are overwhelming: 9 goals, 79 total shots, and 27 corners in the last five matches. Tolima’s pressing midfield—anchored by Brayan Rovira and supported by Sebastian Guzman—creates turnovers and transitions quickly. Deportivo Pasto, despite a higher win rate in 2026, averaged only 27 shots in five games and struggled in away fixtures against high-pressing teams. Their attack relies on quick counters, but Tolima’s organized backline, coupled with goalkeeper Luis Marquines’ reliability, restricts easy chances. Fouls remain moderate for both, though Tolima’s 14 yellows point to aggressive play. Expect a physical battle, with Tolima dominating possession (2720 passes vs. Pasto’s 1053 in the last five). Our team sees value in Tolima’s high shot volume and set piece threat translating into goals, while Pasto’s conservative approach may limit their scoring.

Team Analysis

Deportes Tolima’s recent results show a team capable of both dominating and stumbling. A 3-0 win over Club Nacional confirmed their attacking prowess, with Luis Sandoval and Jersson González combining for decisive moments. Tolima’s previous home matches indicate strong starts, sharp transitions, and a tendency to press after losing possession. Their defensive lapses surface mainly against technically skilled opponents, but Pasto’s current squad composition does not mirror those threats. Consistency from midfielders like Rovira and Guzman keeps Tolima’s tempo high.

Deportivo Pasto’s form—two wins from three—shows resilience, but their narrow margins and reliance on Andrey Estupiñan’s individual moments remain concerns. Their last outing, a 1-2 home loss to Santa Fe, exposed gaps in defensive transitions. Pasto prefers a 4-2-3-1, emphasizing midfield compactness but often retreating under sustained pressure. Their away stats drop sharply in shots and corners, reflecting a reactive rather than proactive style. Wilson Morelo and Estupiñan carry the attacking burden, but the midfield’s lack of creative passing limits their threat in open play.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Deportes Tolima the favourite

• Moneyline Deportes Tolima 2.10 | Deportivo Pasto 3.30
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.25 | Under 2.5 1.60
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.75

Deportes Tolima come in as clear favourites—odds around 2.10 for the home win, Pasto at 3.30. The market expects a low-scoring match, with Under 2.5 at 1.60. BTTS ‘No’ is preferred at 1.75. The odds align with Tolima’s superior shot and goal stats at home, and Pasto’s struggles in attack away. We predict a disciplined Tolima performance suffocating Pasto’s offense, with the most likely scenario being a 1-0 or 2-0 home win. The draw remains plausible given Pasto’s defensive tactics, but Tolima’s recent attacking output gives them the edge.

Possible Starting Lineups

Deportes Tolima possible starting eleven

This lineup blends Tolima’s experience and attacking threat. Marquines provides stability in goal. The back four offers a mix of physicality and technical ability, with Hernandez and Torres pushing forward when needed. Rovira and Guzman dictate play in the middle, while Parra and González create and convert chances. Expect a 4-4-1-1 formation, with Parra leading the line and González in support. Parra’s off-ball movement and González’s ability to unlock defenses make them players to watch.

Deportivo Pasto possible starting eleven

Banguera starts in goal, with a defensive line anchored by Gil and Velasco. The midfield quartet offers work rate but limited creativity, while Estupiñan and Morelo remain the primary threats up front. Pasto will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Estupiñan’s recent form and Morelo’s finishing are Pasto’s best hopes for an upset, but the side lacks the depth Tolima boasts.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Deportes Tolima to win at home, keeping a clean sheet. Tolima’s attacking metrics dwarf Pasto’s, and their home record indicates they rarely concede early. Pasto’s away attack lacks punch, and their defensive structure will be stretched by Tolima’s high pressing and set pieces. Tolima’s superior volume of shots, corners, and midfield interceptions should translate to control and eventual victory, with a likely scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0. Expect a physical, tactical battle, but Tolima’s firepower and depth give them the advantage.

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