Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Deportes Tolima welcome Cucuta to Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro in a Clausura clash where the hosts carry clear table and ranking advantages, but arrive off a rocky run of form. The interesting angle here: Cucuta already beat Tolima 3-2 in the Apertura earlier this year, meaning the visitors will feel they can repeat that upset on the road.
Two players to watch: Homer Martinez (Tolima) has been a persistent midfield presence across all five recent matches, generating 10 shots and drawing fouls regularly, making him central to Tolima’s attacking buildup. For Cucuta, Leider Berdugo leads in shot volume with 12 attempts over five games and contributes in the final third with one assist, giving Cucuta their most consistent creative threat.
Hot stat: Cucuta have accumulated 18 yellow cards across their last five matches, the highest in this fixture, pointing to a physical and combative approach that is likely to shape the tempo of this game.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026, Clausura |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:05 CEST |
Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Prediction
Tolima sit 7th in the Clausura table with 10 points from five games and hold a clear structural edge at home. Their year-long win rate of 46% across 41 matches dwarfs Cucuta’s 20% from 30 games. The bookmakers agree, pricing Tolima at 68% win probability. We predict a Deportes Tolima win, backed by their home record, superior squad depth, and Cucuta’s negative goal difference of -4 in the Clausura.
Tolima’s style leans on controlled passing, averaging 2,643 passes over five matches with a 2,245 pass accuracy figure, compared to Cucuta’s 1,627 and 1,272 respectively. Tolima are the more possession-oriented side. Cucuta commit more fouls (66 vs 57) and have picked up two red cards recently, meaning their discipline under pressure is a genuine weakness. That physical edge may help them disrupt Tolima early, but sustaining it for 90 minutes against a more technical side at home is a different matter. Tolima’s 30 corner kicks across five games also suggests they generate consistent wide pressure, making corners a market worth noting.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Deportes Tolima to win & over 1.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Deportes Tolima’s last 30 days have been inconsistent, collecting just two wins from seven matches. Their most recent outing ended in a 1-3 defeat to Independiente del Valle, a side in excellent form, having won 14 of their last 15 matches. Before that, Tolima drew 0-0 with Bucaramanga and lost 0-1 to Independiente del Valle in a Copa fixture. Their two wins in this period came against Internacional de Bogota (2-1) and before that Independiente Medellin (2-3 loss). To be honest, the recent form is patchy, but Tolima’s defeats have come against high-quality opponents, which provides context. In the Clausura specifically, they have three wins, one draw, and one loss from five games.
Cucuta arrive in better short-term form, winning two of their last five with two draws and one loss. Their most recent result was a 1-0 win over Alianza Petrolera, followed by a 1-0 win over Independiente Medellin and a 1-1 draw with Internacional de Bogota. Both wins were narrow, and Cucuta conceded nine goals in six Clausura matches, reflecting defensive fragility. Their lone loss in the last five came against Fortaleza (0-2). The pattern is clear: Cucuta can grind out low-scoring wins but concede freely when under sustained pressure.
🚨Check out our dedicated Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Deportes Tolima the favourite
- Moneyline Deportes Tolima 1.36 | Cucuta 7.50
- Draw 4.40
The Bovada moneyline at 1.36 for Tolima is short but reflects reality given the gap in squad quality and Cucuta’s poor defensive record. Cucuta at 7.50 offers some interest given they beat Tolima in the Apertura, but that price implies roughly 13% probability, which aligns with the bookmaker consensus. The draw at 4.40 is not attractive given Tolima’s home dominance. We prefer the Tolima win at 1.36 as the anchor of any combination bet rather than a standalone play.
Possible Starting Lineups
Deportes Tolima Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Miguel Ortega
- DF: Junior Hernandez, Cristian Arrieta, Jherson Mosquera, Anderson Angulo
- MF: Sebastian Guzman, Homer Martinez, Luis Sanchez, Jorge Hurtado
- FW: Adrián Parra, Ever Valencia
Tolima’s most-used players across the last five matches form the spine of this 4-2-3-1 setup. Miguel Ortega gets the nod in goal after five appearances. Junior Hernandez is notable in defense with two goals from set pieces, adding an aerial threat. Homer Martinez anchors the midfield press and draws fouls, while Sebastian Guzman provides passing range with 352 passes logged. Adrián Parra leads the forward line with one goal and one assist, and Ever Valencia provides movement off the shoulder.
Cucuta Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Federico Abadia
- DF: Brayan Montano, Diego Calcaterra, Yair Abonia, Kevin Zapata
- MF: Leider Berdugo, Victor Mejia, Sebastián Tamara, Gustavo Torres
- FW: Marlon Carabalí, Jhonatan Agudelo
Federico Abadia has started all five recent matches and recorded 28 saves, which reflects how much work Cucuta’s goalkeeper has been doing. Brayan Montano is the most reliable defensive presence with 390 minutes played and no yellow cards. Leider Berdugo is the engine in midfield, with 12 shots and 154 passes. Marlon Carabalí provides the creative link from wide, contributing one assist. Cucuta will likely sit in a compact 4-2-3-1 and look to hit on the counter, with Jhonatan Agudelo making runs in behind.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Cucuta. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Tolima’s home advantage, superior pass accuracy, and stronger Clausura standing make them the clear pick. Cucuta’s win in the Apertura shows they are capable of an upset, and their recent form is genuinely better over the last 30 days (40% win rate vs Tolima’s 29%), so the match will not be a walkover. Cucuta’s goalkeeper Abadia has been one of the busiest in the division with 28 saves in five games, suggesting their defense leaks chances regularly. We predict Deportes Tolima to win with both teams scoring, given Cucuta’s ability to grab a goal but their overall inability to keep clean sheets. The over 2.5 goals market fits the profile of both teams’ recent head-to-head (2-3 in the Apertura) and Cucuta’s defensive numbers. Our primary tip is Deportes Tolima win, with BTTS Yes as the secondary angle.
