Denmark (W) vs Sweden (W) Prediction: 5 June 2026 Women's World Cup Qualification UEFA

This Group A clash carries serious qualification weight. Denmark sit top with 8 points, one ahead of Sweden, meaning a Danish win would all but seal their path to the World Cup, while a Sweden victory draws them level and puts the pressure squarely back on the hosts. What makes this fixture particularly sharp is the recent head-to-head: these two met just weeks ago in the same group, with Denmark winning 2-1 as the heavy favourite at 60% according to bookmakers. Sweden will be motivated to reverse that result, and the odds now heavily favour them to do exactly that.

Striker Pernille Harder remains Denmark’s most creative force in the final third, capable of unlocking any defensive structure with her movement and passing range. For Sweden, Fridolina Rolfö is the standout attacking threat, a direct and physical winger who punishes defensive errors and consistently creates chances in big games.

Hot stat: Sweden’s last meeting with Denmark in the UEFA Women’s Nations League ended in a 6-1 demolition, a result that shows just how wide the quality gap can stretch on a good day for the Swedes.

Denmark (W) vs Sweden (W) Prediction

Sweden enter this match as clear favourites at 51% probability according to bookmakers, and the underlying data supports that reading. Their ranking is considerably stronger than Denmark’s, and the 6-1 Nations League result earlier this year demonstrated what Sweden can do when fully switched on against this opponent. Denmark’s recent win in the reverse fixture shows they can compete, but that result came when bookmakers rated them as significant favourites, a very different dynamic to tonight.

We predict a Sweden win. Peter Gerhardsson’s side have the quality to control possession and create volume, and with qualification stakes this high, Sweden will not sit back. Denmark’s form across the longer term is inconsistent, with multiple losing streaks visible in their form string. Sweden’s recent dip (a loss in their last 30 days) is a minor concern, but their motivation to avoid falling behind in the group should sharpen their performance here.

Both teams have shown they can score against each other across recent meetings, and given the attacking quality on both sides, goals are likely. Denmark’s defensive solidity has been reasonable in this campaign, conceding just 3 in 4 games, but Sweden have the forward options to test that. We lean toward a moderate-scoring match with Sweden taking the points.

Team Analysis

Denmark have been solid throughout this qualification campaign, collecting 8 points from 4 matches without a single defeat. Their last match was a 0-0 draw with Italy, a result that preserved their lead at the top of the group. Before that, they claimed the key 2-1 win over Sweden in this same competition. Coach Andrée Alexander Jeglertz has built a compact, hard-to-beat side, but Denmark’s attack has scored just 6 goals in 4 games, and their form string over a longer stretch shows multiple losing runs, suggesting fragility when facing genuine top-level opposition.

Sweden’s campaign has been slightly uneven. Their 1-0 win over Serbia in their most recent match gets the job done, but it follows a 2-1 loss to Denmark and a 0-0 draw with Serbia earlier in the campaign. The bright spot is their 1-0 win over Italy, which showed they can handle the group’s other contenders. Going back slightly further, Sweden’s 2-1 win over France (w) earlier in the year showed their ability to perform in high-profile fixtures. Peter Gerhardsson’s side average just under a goal per game in this group, which is modest, but their defensive record of just 2 goals conceded in 4 matches shows structural discipline.

🚨Check out our dedicated Denmark (W) vs Sweden (W) stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sweden (W) the Favourite

• Moneyline Denmark (W) 3.75 | Sweden (W) 1.77
• Draw 3.50

Sweden at 1.77 is fair value given the head-to-head history and ranking differential. Denmark at 3.75 reflects the genuine upset potential they showed in the reverse fixture, but that price is high for a team that has not convincingly dominated this group. The draw at 3.50 is intriguing given how many tight results have appeared in this campaign, including two 0-0 draws for Denmark alone. To be honest, we would not back the draw here given the qualification stakes pushing both sides to attack for a result. Sweden’s price is the most sensible entry point for a straightforward wager.

Possible Starting Lineups

Denmark (W) Possible Starting Eleven

Denmark are likely to set up in a 4-3-3 shape, prioritising defensive compactness while using Pernille Harder’s ability to link play between the lines. Harder is the player to watch, capable of both scoring and creating in tight spaces. Kathrine Møller Kühl provides energy and pressing in midfield. Given the high stakes, Jeglertz may set up slightly more cautiously than in the reverse fixture, looking to absorb Sweden’s pressure and counter.

Sweden (W) Possible Starting Eleven

Sweden are expected to deploy a 4-3-3 as well, built around the experience of Caroline Seger in the holding role and the attacking threat of Fridolina Rolfö and Stina Blackstenius up front. Magdalena Eriksson’s composure at the back is a key ingredient to Sweden’s defensive shape. Zecira Musovic in goal is among the best in the women’s game at this level. Gerhardsson will push for an assertive start, looking to establish control early and avoid a repeat of the recent loss to Denmark.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Denmark have done well to lead this group, but Sweden have the squad depth and individual quality to take this match. The 6-1 Nations League result earlier in the year remains a reference point for what Sweden can produce, and while Denmark showed real resilience in winning the reverse fixture, doing it twice in a row against this opposition is a tall order. Sweden’s defensive record in the group is strong, their attacking options are varied, and they have a clear motivation to win and level on points.

We predict a Sweden win, with both teams scoring in a match that finishes something like 2-1 to the visitors. Denmark will push for a result given their table position, which opens space for Sweden to exploit on the counter. The over 2.5 goals market and BTTS both look solid given the attacking talent available and the open nature this fixture has historically produced.

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