Alex MacQuoid
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Both sides arrive at this Group 4 fixture off the back of opening-round defeats, which turns what looked like a straightforward assignment for Denmark into something with a bit more edge. Brian Riemer’s men fell to Norway last time out, while Wales couldn’t find a way past Portugal despite a decent defensive shift. What’s interesting here is that neither team has scored more than two goals in their last two outings combined against top-half opposition, so this one might not be the goal fest the bookmakers’ odds suggest.
Watch Rasmus Hojlund up top for Denmark, he’s carried the goal threat in recent matches and Wales’ back four will need to track his movement closely. On the other side, Ethan Ampadu remains the heartbeat of the Welsh midfield, breaking up play and dictating tempo from deep, a role that becomes even more important given how much possession Denmark tend to dominate.
Hot stat: Denmark have racked up 13 shots and 8 corner kicks in their most recent matches compared to just 5 shots and 2 corners from Wales, a gap that says a lot about which side is doing the pressing and which side is sitting back.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 4 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Denmark vs Wales prediction
Our lean here is Denmark to win, and honestly, the value isn’t in the moneyline alone but in backing Denmark with a slight goal cushion. Wales have gone five matches without a win, drawing three and losing two, and their attacking output has dried up almost completely. Denmark, even in defeat to Norway, still found the net twice, and that scoring habit against a Welsh side missing consistent firepower should be enough to settle this.
Denmark’s passing numbers dwarf Wales’ across the board, over 500 passes attempted compared to under 400 for Wales in their latest matches, and that possession edge usually translates into more clear-cut chances. Fouls and cards are fairly even between the sides, both picking up around 10 fouls per match recently, so this shouldn’t turn into a stop-start, cynical affair. Wales tend to sit compact and rely on set pieces, which is where their free-kick numbers (11 attempts, no goals) come from, but that lack of a cutting edge from dead-ball situations makes it harder for them to break Denmark down.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Denmark to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Denmark’s last outing ended in a 2-3 loss to Norway, a game where they actually scored twice but were undone defensively. Before that they beat Ukraine 2-1, drew 0-0 with DR Congo, lost 3-5 to a rampant Czech Republic, and thrashed North Macedonia 4-0. That’s a run of five matches with goals in four of them, so the attacking side of Riemer’s setup keeps functioning even when results don’t go their way. In our preview of Norway vs Denmark we called Norway to win with goals at both ends, and the 3-2 result delivered exactly that.
Wales meanwhile lost 0-1 to Portugal in their last match, extending a run that now stretches to five games without a win, three draws and two defeats. Before Portugal they lost 1-2 to Romania, drew 1-1 with Ghana, drew 1-1 with Northern Ireland, and drew 1-1 with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Craig Bellamy’s side clearly know how to stay in games defensively, but they haven’t scored more than once in any of those five matches. In our preview of Portugal vs Wales we backed Portugal for a comfortable win with a clean sheet, and while the 1-0 scoreline landed on the result, the margin came in tighter than we expected.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Denmark and Wales haven’t crossed paths in a competitive fixture recently, so there’s no meaningful head-to-head data to draw from for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Denmark vs Wales stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Denmark the favourite
- Moneyline Denmark 1.42 | Wales 6.50
- Draw 4.50
The market is heavily backing Denmark here, and with good reason given the gulf in recent shot volume and passing output. We wouldn’t chase the short Denmark price alone, though, perhaps a goal-line or double-chance angle offers a bit more return without sacrificing much confidence in the outcome.
Wales. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Denmark possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Jørgensen
- DF: Joakim Maehle, Joachim Andersen, Oliver Provstgaard, Rasmus Kristensen
- MF: Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Morten Hjulmand, Mikkel Damsgaard
- FW: Rasmus Hojlund, Patrick Dorgu, Gustav Isaksen
Riemer looks set to stick with his usual 4-3-3, built around Højbjerg and Hjulmand controlling the middle third. Hojlund’s movement up top gives Denmark a focal point, and Damsgaard’s ability to drift wide and combine with Dorgu should stretch a Welsh defense that struggled to deal with Portugal’s rotations.
Wales possible starting eleven
- GK: Danny Ward
- DF: Neco Williams, Ben Davies, Ben Cabango, Jay Dasilva
- MF: Ethan Ampadu, Josh Sheehan
- FW: Brennan Johnson, Jordan James, David Brooks, Lewis Koumas
Bellamy’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Ampadu and Sheehan shielding the back four, freeing Johnson and Brooks to work the channels either side of Koumas. It’s a setup built for containment first, with quick transitions the main hope of catching Denmark out on the counter.
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Denmark. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Denmark to win this one, likely by a two-goal margin given how toothless Wales have looked in front of goal across their last five matches. Denmark’s own defensive wobble against Norway is a concern, but Wales simply haven’t shown the attacking quality to punish it consistently. To be honest, a clean sheet for Denmark wouldn’t shock us either, though we lean toward a 2-0 or 3-1 finish that keeps both the win and the goals markets in play.
Read also: Denmark vs Wales Head-to-Head: Record, Stats and Form as of 25 Sep 2026
Read also: Denmark vs Wales Predicted Lineups, Team News & Expected XIs
