Alex MacQuoid
Relegation nerves on the line. The Pro League pressure reaches a boiling point as Dender welcome Lommel SK to Stade Van Roy on 23 May. Both teams feel the weight—Dender grasping at survival, Lommel SK surging with form and belief. Yannick Ferrera and Lee Johnson must conjure something special, but which approach bites harder in a match that shapes their seasons? A standout: Mohamed Berte’s drive for Dender, while Zalán Vancsa’s finishing has been ruthless for Lommel. Fans could see these two influence the outcome directly, whether it’s Berte’s direct running or Vancsa’s coolness in front of goal.
Hot stat? Lommel SK have smashed home 17 goals in their last 5 matches, nearly double Dender’s tally. This attacking avalanche should worry the hosts, whose back line hasn’t exactly looked unbreakable.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Pro League 2025/26, Relegation Phase, Belgium |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stade Van Roy, Denderleeuw |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:15 CEST |
Dender vs Lommel SK prediction
Our punters see value in the away win for Lommel SK. Dender’s recent results—one win in five, only 20% winrate last month—paint a grim picture. Lommel SK, in contrast, are red-hot: five wins in their last six, a ruthless 83% winrate. The momentum and firepower on Johnson’s side dwarf Dender’s current form. Backing Lommel SK is the pick, especially given their 3-2 away win at Dender just days ago.
On the tactical side, expect Dender to stick to a 4-4-2, likely compact and cautious given their struggles conceding 14 in 7 relegation matches. But this caution brings fouls: 79 in their last five. They see yellow often—14 cards. Lommel SK play with energy and control in a 3-4-2-1, far fewer cards (just 6 yellows recently), fewer fouls, and dominant passing (over 2000 completed). Dender’s physicality could disrupt but risks suspensions, while Lommel’s movement and discipline might exploit tired legs.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Lommel SK win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Dender’s recent games have been a struggle. Last time out? They lost 2-3 to Lommel SK at home—fragile at the back, chasing the game, never quite comfortable. Mohamed Berte tried to spark something, scoring and assisting, but the defensive errors proved too much. Before that: another defeat, 1-2 to Zulte Waregem, and before that, a single win against a weak RAAL La Louviere side. The pattern? Dender’s defense concedes heavily, and their midfield gets overrun.
Lommel SK, by contrast, are in a groove. They toppled Dender 3-2 away, followed by consecutive 3-1 wins against Beerschot VA. Zalán Vancsa is lethal—5 goals in his last 6—and Ralf Seuntjens is a creative spark. Their style is direct yet controlled; they press high, create chances in bunches, and rarely lose composure even when conceding. The only blip? A 2-1 win over RFC Liege where they looked a bit shaky early but recovered quickly, showing composure and resilience.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Dender | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| Total shots | 12 | 15 |
| Free kicks | 11 | 8 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 5 |
| Total fouls | 18 | 11 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 73 | 81 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 13 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Dender vs Lommel SK stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Dender the favourite
- Moneyline Dender 2.10 | Lommel SK 3.05
- Draw 3.45
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.90 | Under 2.5 1.80
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.10
Bookies slightly lean toward Dender, possibly due to home advantage, but the odds on Lommel SK feel generous given their streak. The Over 2.5 is well priced, with both teams often involved in high-scoring contests. Both teams to score looks likely; Dender can snatch a goal, but keeping Lommel at bay looks tough. We think the value sits with Lommel SK and goals.
Possible Starting Lineups
Dender possible starting eleven
- GK: Guillaume Dietsch
- DF: Bryan Goncalves, Luc Marijnissen, Nail Moutha-Sebtaoui, Junior Sambu Mansoni
- MF: Desmond Acquah, Nathan Rodes, Malcolm Viltard, Krzysztof Koton
- FW: Mohamed Berte, Bruny Nsimba
This selection leans on recent appearances and the need for resilience. Dietsch starts in goal—his saves often keep Dender in matches. Berte up top is the main threat, with Nsimba offering support. Marijnissen and Goncalves shore up the defense, though cracks remain. Acquah and Viltard bring energy to midfield, but the key is Berte’s ability to conjure moments from nothing. 4-4-2 again, but this lineup will need discipline to withstand Lommel’s pressing.
Lommel SK possible starting eleven
- GK: Nikola Ivezić
- DF: Dries Wouters, Jhon Andersson Banguera Riascos, Sam De Grand
- MF: Lucas Schoofs, Joey Pelupessy, Lautaro Lopez, Jesper Tolinsson
- FW: Zalán Vancsa, Ralf Seuntjens, Jason Van Duiven
No surprises. Ivezić between the sticks. The back three—Wouters, Banguera, De Grand—have all been ever-present, providing stability. Schoofs (midfield dynamo) and Vancsa (lethal finisher) drive this side. 3-4-2-1 setup, giving Vancsa and Seuntjens space to exploit. Johnson won’t tweak much given the current chemistry, and honestly, it works.
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Lommel SK. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our team’s verdict? Lommel SK to win, with goals expected. The visitors carry form, belief, and attacking clarity. Dender’s defense is fragile, their midfield often outrun, and recent home results—grim. Berte might spark something, but Vancsa and Seuntjens tilt the balance. Over 2.5 goals is strongly backed. Both teams to score? Very likely. Back the away win.
