Den Bosch vs Almere City Prediction: 29.04.2026 Eerste Divisie Promotion

The Eerste Divisie Promotion Round 1 brings a compelling contest between Den Bosch and Almere City at Stadion de Vliert. With both teams aiming for a crucial edge in their bid for promotion, the matchup is evenly poised as reflected by near-identical win probabilities from bookmakers. While Den Bosch took the win in their last head-to-head, Almere City have displayed better form over the last month and throughout the season, making this encounter particularly intriguing for bettors and fans alike.

Two key players to focus on are Den Bosch’s Ilias Boumassaoudi, who has been a lively attacking presence with two goals in his last five games, and Almere City’s Julian Rijkhoff, a consistent scorer and the focal point of their front line. Both players are likely to have a significant impact on the scoreline in this high-stakes clash.

Hot stat: Almere City have attempted 116 total shots in their last five matches over 50% more than Den Bosch highlighting their attacking intent and potential to create numerous chances.

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Den Bosch vs Almere City prediction

Given the data, the best value prediction is for Both Teams To Score (BTTS: Yes). Almere City’s attacking output has been impressive with 11 goals and 116 shots in their last five games, while Den Bosch have scored in each of their last five, including twice in their previous meeting. Both defenses have shown vulnerabilities, with Den Bosch conceding 10 in five matches and Almere City 9 in the same span.

In terms of style, Almere City play an aggressive, forward-thinking brand of football, as shown by their high shot and corner counts (42 corners in five games), but their defensive line can be drawn out and exposed. Den Bosch, typically in a 5-3-2, rely on compactness and quick transitions but have struggled with discipline (62 fouls, 5 yellow cards in five matches) and defending set-pieces. Ball possession is generally even, but Almere City’s higher pass completion (average 83.6% vs Den Bosch’s 77.2%) suggests more effective build-up play. Expect an open game with chances for both.

Team Analysis

Den Bosch’s latest fixture saw them lose 1-3 to Den Haag, conceding early and struggling to control midfield. They managed just 1 win in their last five matches (1-3-1), with defensive frailties evident in the 2-4 home loss to Oss. Despite the backline’s five-man structure, the team has leaked goals, often due to turnovers and set-piece vulnerability. Their only recent win was a 2-1 result against Almere City, where efficiency in front of goal made the difference.

Almere City, in contrast, lost 1-3 to VVV-Venlo in their last outing but dominated Dordrecht 4-1 before that and have two wins from their last five. The team’s 4-3-3 formation promotes wide attacking play, with wingers and fullbacks pushing high. They can be caught on the counter, as seen in the 1-2 loss to Willem II, but their high shot volume and corner count suggest persistent pressure. The side is led by Julian Rijkhoff and supported by Milan de Haan, both regular contributors to the scoreline.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Den Bosch vs Almere City stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Den Bosch the slight favourite

• Moneyline Den Bosch 2.40 | Almere City 2.60
• Draw 3.60
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.05

Bookmakers see this as a close contest with Den Bosch given a marginal edge due to home advantage and their recent head-to-head success. The odds for both teams to score are short, reflecting both teams’ attacking strengths and defensive frailties. Over 2.5 goals is also favored, consistent with recent high-scoring games. The draw remains a viable option given both teams’ inconsistencies.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Den Bosch possible starting eleven

Den Bosch are likely to stick with their familiar 5-3-2, focusing on defensive compactness and quick counters. Van de Merbel remains first-choice in goal, with Maas and Barglan as key defenders. Midfield balance is provided by Laros and Fortes, while the main attacking responsibility falls to Boumassaoudi and de Vries. Boumassaoudi, in particular, is a player to watch for his movement and finishing.

Almere City possible starting eleven

Almere City will probably field their usual 4-3-3, emphasizing width and attacking rotations. Wendlinger is set to start in goal, with Reith and Lawrence forming the defensive spine. El Dahri and De Haan are pivotal in midfield transition, while Poku and Dors support Rijkhoff, who is Almere’s primary goal threat. The formation’s attacking intent is clear and could test Den Bosch’s back five.

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The Verdict

This is a genuinely close tie. Den Bosch’s home advantage and recent win over Almere City are significant, but Almere’s superior attacking metrics and higher season win rate cannot be ignored. Expect a competitive match with goals at both ends BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are the standout bets. If picking a winner, Almere’s attacking edge may just tip the balance, but the safest call is a high-scoring draw or a narrow away win.

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