Liam Duckstein
Degerfors host Malmo at Stora Valla on July 4 in what looks like a tricky mid-table Allsvenskan encounter. Malmo sit 9th with 13 points from 10 games, while Degerfors are just below them in 12th with 10 points. Both sides share an identical record over the last 30 days: one win, one draw, zero losses. The last time these two met at Stora Valla in 2025, it ended 1-1, but Malmo ran out 4-1 winners in the reverse fixture that same season. That contrast tells a story about how unpredictable this fixture can be.
Malmo forward and attacking midfielder options will be the ones to watch. Under coach Guillermo Molins, their front line has shown real bite, scoring 20 goals in 10 league games this season. For Degerfors, coach Henok Goitom will lean on his midfield creators to disrupt Malmo’s rhythm. The home side has scored 12 times in 10 league games, so they are not toothless, but their defensive record of 16 conceded is a concern.
Hot stat: Malmo have conceded in four of their last five Allsvenskan matches, including a 4-1 defeat to Hammarby and a 3-2 loss to Mjallby. Their defensive stability is questionable heading into this away trip.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Allsvenskan 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stora Valla, Degerfors |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Degerfors vs Malmo Prediction
Malmo are the bookmakers’ favourites at around 2.17-2.24, and we agree with that assessment. They have the higher world club ranking by a significant margin and a better season win rate of 41% compared to Degerfors’ 33%. Their head-to-head record also favours Malmo, who won 4-1 at this venue in 2025.
That said, Degerfors are not without threat at home. They drew 1-1 against Malmo at Stora Valla last season, and their recent form shows resilience with a win against Lillestrom and draws against GAIS and others. Malmo’s away record this season has been inconsistent, losing to both Mjallby and Hacken in recent weeks.
We predict Malmo to win, but both teams to score is a genuine possibility given the defensive frailties on both sides. Malmo’s attack has scored in every recent match, and Degerfors have managed to find the net even against stronger opposition. The total goals market looks promising for the over, and corners could be a solid side market given how open these matches tend to be.
- We predict: Malmo Win
- Both Teams to Score: Yes
- Total Goals: Over 2.5
- Total Corners: Over 8.5
Degerfors commit fouls at a moderate rate and tend to give away set pieces in dangerous areas. Malmo, with their direct style under Molins, will look to exploit those situations. If Malmo can control possession and press high, they should create enough to secure the three points, but Degerfors will make it uncomfortable.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Malmo to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Degerfors have shown signs of life in recent fixtures. Their most recent match was a 3-2 win over Lillestrom, a result that will have given the squad confidence. Before that, they drew 1-1 with GAIS and suffered a 4-1 loss to Mjallby. That defeat to Mjallby exposed a defensive vulnerability that Malmo will be keen to exploit. The 1-1 draws against Hacken and Orgryte earlier in the run show Degerfors can hold their own against mid-table sides, but they struggle to keep clean sheets consistently. Their overall form string shows a lot of fluctuation, alternating between wins and losses without any real settled run.
Malmo’s recent form is similarly mixed but carries more attacking punch. Their last recorded match was a 2-2 draw with Midtjylland, which came after a heavy 4-1 loss to Hammarby. That Hammarby defeat was a serious blow, but Malmo did beat AIK 1-0 before it, showing they can grind out results. Losses to both Hacken (3-2) and Mjallby (3-2) in the same recent stretch suggest Molins’ side concede too easily against direct opposition. With 20 goals scored in 10 league games, they attack well. The question is whether their defence can hold together against a Degerfors side that just put three past Lillestrom.
🚨Check out our dedicated Degerfors vs Malmo stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Malmo the Favourite
- Moneyline Degerfors 3.20 | Malmo 2.20
- Draw 3.35
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds on Malmo at around 2.17-2.24 across bookmakers reflect their status as the stronger side, but they are not as short as you might expect for a team ranked so much higher. That suggests bookmakers respect Degerfors’ home record, particularly after their recent 3-2 win. The draw odds at 3.30-3.40 are fair given the head-to-head history showing a 1-1 at this venue last season. Degerfors at 3.10-3.35 offers some value if you believe in an upset, but we lean toward Malmo to get the job done.
Possible Starting Lineups
Degerfors Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Oscar Jansson
- DF: Anton Lundin, Marcus Johannesson, Andreas Hägglund, Mattias Johansson
- MF: Linus Hallenius, Noel Täng, Filip Dagerstal, Anton Lans
- FW: Erik Björdal, Jesper Florén
Degerfors are likely to line up in a 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 shape under Goitom, prioritising defensive solidity while looking to hit on the counter. Their recent 3-2 win over Lillestrom showed they can be dangerous going forward, so expect the wide forwards to press high and look for quick transitions. The midfield trio will need to work hard to limit Malmo’s creative players and win second balls.
Malmo Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Johan Dahlin
- DF: Eric Larsson, Franz Brorsson, Anel Ahmedhodzic, Lasse Nielsen
- MF: Erdal Rakip, Anders Christiansen, Sergio Peña
- FW: Isaac Kiese Thelin, Veljko Birmancevic, Ola Toivonen
Molins typically sets Malmo up in a 4-3-3, using wide attackers to stretch defences and central midfielders to control tempo. Anders Christiansen is the player to watch, offering creativity and set-piece delivery. Isaac Kiese Thelin leads the line with physicality and movement. The back four has been shaky recently, so any Degerfors pressure on the flanks could create openings. Malmo’s quality in the final third should be enough to make the difference at Stora Valla.
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Malmo. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Malmo are the pick here. Their attacking output of 20 goals in 10 league games is among the better returns in Allsvenskan this season, and Degerfors’ defence has conceded 16 times in the same number of games. The head-to-head record backs Malmo too, with a convincing 4-1 win at this ground in 2025.
To be honest, the both teams to score market is where the real value sits. Degerfors just scored three against Lillestrom, and Malmo have been leaking goals in recent weeks. A 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline feels realistic. We predict Malmo win and both teams to score as the core selections, with over 2.5 goals as a solid accompaniment. The corners market over 8.5 also deserves attention given how open both sides tend to play when chasing or protecting leads.
