Liam Duckstein
The UEFA Conference League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round gets underway on July 9, and this tie pits Montenegrin side Decic against Latvian club Liepaja at Daugava Stadium. Decic travel as the away side in a statistical sense but arrive in notably better form, having won two of their last three matches. Liepaja, playing on home soil, have gone winless across five outings in the same period, collecting four draws and one defeat. The interesting angle here is that Liepaja’s goalkeeper Davis Oss has been their busiest outfield contributor, racking up 19 saves across five matches, which tells its own story about how much pressure the Latvian backline has been absorbing.
Djibril Gueye stands out as the most productive attacking presence in this fixture. The Liepaja forward has registered two goals from nine shots across five recent matches and will be Liepaja’s primary threat if they are to cause an upset. For Decic, coach Nebojsa Jandric’s side has been organized enough to beat AF Elbasani 3-0 and Arsenal Tivat 4-1 in their two most recent wins, suggesting real attacking capability when they click.
Hot stat: Liepaja conceded four goals in a single home match against Riga FC, a side ranked 291st in the world, making their defensive fragility a genuine concern heading into this European tie.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, First Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Daugava Stadium, Liepaja |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Decic vs Liepaja Prediction
Decic are the better-ranked side by a considerable margin and have demonstrated they can score goals in bunches when the opposition allows them space. Liepaja’s recent form, four draws and a defeat in five matches, reflects a team that lacks a cutting edge and struggles to convert pressure into wins. Their 0-4 loss to Riga FC at home is a red flag that cannot be dismissed.
The best value in this match sits with Decic to win. The odds around 4.00 to 5.00 on the Montenegrin side represent genuine value given the bookmakers’ own probability model gives them a 53% chance of winning. We predict Decic to take this first leg, likely by a narrow but controlled margin.
Liepaja’s style in recent games has leaned heavily on defensive structure, accumulating 63 fouls and 8 yellow cards across five matches. That physicality suggests they will attempt to disrupt Decic’s rhythm through set pieces and pressing rather than open play. Decic, operating in a 4-2-3-1, tend to build through the midfield third, and Liepaja’s tendency to foul in dangerous areas could hand them set-piece opportunities. Corners are also worth watching, as Liepaja have conceded 33 corner kicks in five matches, averaging over six per game against them.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Decic to Win & Under 3.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Decic arrive at this first leg on the back of two convincing victories. Their 3-0 win over AF Elbasani and a 4-1 demolition of Arsenal Tivat show a team capable of clinical finishing. The 1-1 draw with Vllaznia before that was a minor blip, and the two defeats to Mornar and Bokelj came earlier and appear to be outliers given the quality of the opposition at those points. Under Nebojsa Jandric, Decic favour a structured 4-2-3-1 shape that provides defensive cover while giving their attacking players freedom to combine in the final third.
Liepaja’s recent run of results paints a concerning picture ahead of their European debut this season. They did beat Ogre United 4-0 and Super Nova 2-1, but sandwiched around those results were a 0-4 loss to Riga FC and a 0-1 defeat to Grobina. Most recently, they lost 1-3 to Daugavpils, conceding three goals at home. Coach Vladimir Vassiljev has his team set up in a 4-2-3-1 as well, but the execution has been inconsistent. Davis Oss in goal has been the standout performer, making 19 saves across five games, which underlines how exposed the defense has been.
🚨Check out our dedicated Decic vs Liepaja stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Liepaja the Favourite
- Moneyline Decic 4.58 | Liepaja 1.74
- Draw 3.58
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds are interesting here. Liepaja are priced as favourites at around 1.74 purely by virtue of home advantage, but the bookmakers’ own probability model gives Decic a 53% chance of winning. That discrepancy is where the value lies. Decic at 4.58 with 888starz or Spinbetter, or even at 5.00 with Bet365, represent a genuine overlay given their superior form and ranking. We would not dismiss the draw at 3.58 either, as first-leg European ties tend to be cautious affairs, but Decic’s recent attacking output makes them worth backing.
Possible Starting Lineups
Liepaja Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Davis Oss
- DF: Vladislavs Sorokins, Amilcar Silva, Ilja Korotkovs, Bart Straalman
- MF: Chovanie Amatkarijo, Ivans Patrikejevs
- FW: Kyvon Leidsman, Djibril Gueye, Abiodun Ogunniyi, Ingars Pulis
Vassiljev is expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape. Davis Oss is a certainty between the sticks after five consecutive appearances and 19 saves. Amilcar Silva has been one of the more composed defenders with 229 passes and 10 fouls over five games, suggesting he anchors the back four. Djibril Gueye leads the attack with two goals from nine shots and is the player Decic will need to watch most carefully. Chovanie Amatkarijo provides creative support from midfield, having registered one assist and seven shots in recent outings.
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Liepaja. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Decic come into this first-leg tie in far better shape than their hosts. Their 67% win rate over the last 30 days, combined with back-to-back victories against European competition and domestic opponents, puts them in a strong position despite playing away from home. Liepaja have not won in five matches, conceded four goals to Riga FC at home, and lost 1-3 to Daugavpils just days before this tie.
We predict a Decic win in a tight, low-scoring match. Their defensive organization should limit Liepaja to minimal clear chances, while their attacking unit, which has scored seven goals across two recent wins, has the tools to find the net. The corner market is worth attention given Liepaja’s average of over six corners conceded per game. We back Decic to win and under 2.5 total goals as the primary tips for this fixture.
