Cusco vs Tarma Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Liga 1 2025 Match - 23.09.2025

A riveting fixture awaits at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega as Cusco, current leaders of the Liga 1 2025 Clausura, host Tarma on 23 September 2025, with kick-off set for 03:15 CEST. This encounter is pivotal for both sides: Cusco, unbeaten with a formidable home record under manager Miguel Rondelli, seek to extend their dominance, while Horacio Melgarejo’s Tarma, sitting lower in the table, are desperate for points to reverse inconsistent form.
Among the standout players, watch out for Cusco’s creative midfielder Ivan Colman—an engine in transition and set-piece situations—and Tarma’s versatile forward Nazareno Bazán, whose recent scoring spree gives the visitors a crucial attacking outlet.
Cusco’s defensive discipline provides a structural advantage, while Tarma’s physical midfielders will attempt to disrupt Cusco’s fluent passing game.
Hot stat: Cusco are undefeated in their last eight Liga 1 Clausura matches, conceding just three goals—testament to the league’s tightest defence as of the latest round.

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Cusco vs Tarma predictions

My best bet: Cusco to win.
Cusco’s remarkable run of 7 wins and 1 draw in the Clausura—accompanied by a goal difference of +10 and just three goals conceded—positions them as clear favourites. Their structured 4-2-3-1 ensures midfield control, and the creative presence of Colman and Colitto should unlock Tarma’s vulnerable back line. By contrast, Tarma have struggled to string together results and conceded 12 goals in 8 matches, with a high disciplinary count hinting at underlying defensive instability.
Cusco register high ball possession and low foul counts (11 across the last five matches), facilitating a flowing attacking game and minimizing dangerous set-piece concessions. Tarma, by contrast, accumulate more fouls (37 in their last five), eight yellow cards, and a red card—suggesting a physical, reactive approach that could cost them against Cusco’s technical midfield. Tarma’s 4-1-4-1 looks to crowd the centre but risks vulnerability to wide overloads.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Cusco vs Tarma Most recent H2Hs

Past meetings between Cusco and Tarma have been fiercely contested: each side split their last two head-to-heads—Tarma edged a 2-1 win in the 2025 Apertura, while Cusco prevailed 2-1 in the 2024 Clausura. In those matches, margins were slim, and set-piece efficiency played a deciding role. Notably, neither side managed to win by more than a single goal, demonstrating a well-matched rivalry where home advantage often tips the scale.

🚨Read our full Cusco vs Tarma stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Cusco are unbeaten at home this Clausura campaign (7W, 1D, 0L).
• Cusco have the lowest goals conceded per match in the league (0.375 per game).
• Tarma are averaging 1.5 yellow cards and 0.12 red cards per game—highest disciplinary rates among mid-table teams.
• Tarma have scored in just 3 of their last 6 league outings.
• Cusco’s Ivan Colman has contributed to 3 goals in his last 5 league matches (2 assists, 1 goal).
• Nazareno Bazán scored twice in his last three matches for Tarma.

Cusco vs Tarma score prediction: 2-0

Expect Cusco’s tactical cohesion and stalwart defence to define this contest. Helmed by Pedro Diaz in goal, with Aldair Fuentes shielding the back four, Cusco should suffocate Tarma’s searching attacks. Ivan Colman and Lucas Colitto’s creative impulses in midfield and attack will likely yield multiple shooting opportunities, while Tarma’s Bazán may find space limited against such a tight bloc. The matchup projects a methodical, controlled 2-0 victory for Cusco, who boast both momentum and home-field advantage.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Cusco the favourite

Analyzing these odds, bookmakers make Cusco firm favourites, closely aligning with their league-leading form and dominant defensive stats. The wider spread on Tarma highlights their status as clear underdogs. The pricing on Under 2.5 goals and “No” to both teams scoring reflects expectations of Cusco’s defensive mastery and Tarma’s struggles to pose a sustained attacking threat against top opposition.

Cusco vs Tarma Over/Under Analysis

• Cusco’s last 5 games have seen under 2.5 goals on 4 occasions.
• Tarma have recorded under 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 outings.
• Both teams combined for only one goal in their last head-to-head at Cusco’s home ground.
• Tarma have not won away at Cusco in their last four trips.
• Penalty or set-piece opportunities could be key, considering Tarma’s high foul count.

Cusco Preview

Cusco enter this game at the summit of Clausura and in imperious form. Their latest fixtures—a 1-0 win over Ayacucho and a crucial 3-2 triumph against title-rival Sporting Cristal—showcase tactical maturity, featuring clinical finishing and resilience under late pressure. Returning to their famed 4-2-3-1, with Pedro Diaz marshalling from behind, Cusco have combined defensive solidity with nimble attacking transitions orchestrated by Ivan Colman and Lucas Colitto.
Their recent unbeaten run is built upon structure: just 4 yellow cards and 11 fouls in the last 5 matches underline excellent discipline, which minimizes opposition set-piece threats and keeps their tactical plan intact.

Cusco possible starting eleven

Tarma Preview

Tarma arrive in Cusco with mixed recent results: a 3-1 victory over Cajamarca was tempered by a 2-2 draw against Melgar and a tough 0-2 loss away to Atletico Grau. Coach Horacio Melgarejo will demand greater defensive discipline after conceding five yellow cards and a red across these fixtures.
Tarma’s 4-1-4-1 formation relies on quick transitions and set pieces, often channelling play through the creative duo Joao Rojas and Mauro Da Luz up to Nazareno Bazán. However, maintaining defensive shape and resisting fouls—particularly against Cusco’s dynamic midfield—pose ongoing concerns.

Tarma possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As the TipsGG team, our analysis strongly points to a Cusco victory, backed by home advantage, tighter defensive metrics, and superior collective form. Tarma’s lack of sustained away performances and high disciplinary counts fortify this projection.
Our dedicated AI prediction engine estimates Cusco’s win probability at 71 percent, with a 19 percent chance of a draw and only 10 percent likelihood of Tarma forcing an upset.
Expect Cusco’s dominance in both territory and possession to translate into another three points.

How to watch Cusco vs Tarma

When?
23 September 2025
Kick-off time: 03:15 CEST
Where?
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
How to watch: Local broadcaster (Peru), streaming options pending confirmation.
Favorite: Cusco

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