Cuiaba vs Fortaleza Prediction: 10.08.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

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Cuiaba and Fortaleza meet at Arena Pantanal in a Série B clash with very different trajectories. Fortaleza sit 6th with 23 points from just 12 games played, meaning they have matches in hand over most of the top half. Cuiaba are 12th with 21 points from 17 games, grinding out draws but rarely converting them into wins. The gap in world club ranking between these two sides is significant, and the recent form gap is even harder to ignore. Keep an eye on Fortaleza’s Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza, who contributed both a goal and an assist across his last four appearances, and Cuiaba’s defender Marlon, the only outfield player on the home side to find the net in their last five matches.

Hot stat: Fortaleza scored 6 goals across their last five matches while Cuiaba managed just 3, but Fortaleza attempted 75 total shots to Cuiaba’s 48, reflecting a far more aggressive attacking output.

Cuiaba vs Fortaleza Prediction

Fortaleza are the pick here. They arrive on the back of a 3-2 win over Palmeiras (one of Brazil’s elite clubs), carry a 59% win rate across 37 matches this year, and have games in hand that could push them toward the top three. Cuiaba have not won in their last four outings, picking up just two draws against lower-ranked opposition. Eduardo Barros’ side has scored only 3 goals in five games, and their attack has been toothless against any defensively organized team.

Cuiaba average nearly 12 fouls per game across their last five matches, which is relatively high, and their 8 yellow cards suggest a physical, reactive style. Fortaleza commit slightly more fouls in total (63 vs 59) but do so with more ball possession and passing volume, meaning they dictate tempo rather than chase it. Cuiaba’s pass accuracy sits at 938 out of 1179 passes, while Fortaleza recorded 1466 accurate passes from 1804, showing a clear difference in control. That possession dominance from Fortaleza tends to suppress Cuiaba’s attacking output further. We predict Fortaleza to win, with both teams potentially scoring given Cuiaba’s home ground advantage and their tendency to stay competitive at Arena Pantanal.

Team Analysis

Cuiaba have been inconsistent and uninspiring across their recent run. They drew 1-1 with Sport Recife in their latest fixture, a result that continued a four-match winless streak. Prior to that, they lost 0-1 to Atletico Goianiense and 0-2 to Juventude, with their only bright result being a 2-2 draw against Sao Bernardo. Their solitary win in this sample came against bottom-side America MG. The team’s attacking output is minimal, and their 4 goals conceded in five games suggest defensive fragility against quality opponents.

Fortaleza’s form tells a contrasting story. Their most recent match was an impressive 3-2 victory over Palmeiras, one of the strongest clubs in South America. Before that they suffered a 0-3 loss to the same Palmeiras side in what was likely a cup context, but bounced back with a 1-0 win over Botafogo SP. They did lose 1-2 to Vila Nova, which shows they are not immune to upsets, but Paulo Autuori’s side has won 22 of 37 matches this year and their ability to recover quickly from defeats is a consistent pattern.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Cuiaba vs Fortaleza stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Cuiaba the favourite

• Moneyline Cuiaba 2.36 | Fortaleza 3.22
• Draw 2.88
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The bookmakers price Cuiaba as marginal home favourites at around 2.36, but the average market probability gives them just 40% to win. Fortaleza at 3.22 represent genuine value given their superior form, depth of squad, and goals-per-game output. The draw at 2.88 is reasonable but Fortaleza’s all-or-nothing recent results (no draws in their last six matches) suggest a decisive outcome is more likely. We lean toward Fortaleza at the available price.

Possible Starting Lineups

Cuiaba Possible Starting Eleven

Eduardo Barros has consistently deployed a 4-2-3-1 shape. Marcelo Carne starts in goal based on playing time data, with João Basso and Alan Empereur anchoring a back four alongside Railan Ferreira and Marlon. Raul Lô Gonçalves is a key presence in midfield with 360 minutes logged and 8 interceptions. Marlon is the most direct attacking threat from defence, having scored once in this sample. Jean Dias da Costa works hard across 263 minutes and provides the most free kick attempts of any outfield player.

Fortaleza Possible Starting Eleven

Paulo Autuori favours a 3-4-2-1 but the data points to a four-defender setup being used in recent games. João Ricardo is the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper with 19 saves and 450 minutes. Gabriel Fuentes Gómez leads the backline with 8 interceptions across four games. In attack, Vitor Ferreira leads with 10 total shots, while Pedro Henrique carries a threat with 1 goal and 7 shots from 251 minutes. Rodrigo Henrique Santos De Souza is perhaps the most complete forward option available, combining goals, assists, and pressing work rate.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Fortaleza are the stronger side by every measurable metric in this fixture. Their 59% win rate this year against Cuiaba’s 21%, their 75 shots to Cuiaba’s 48 across the last five games, and their 51 interceptions to Cuiaba’s 36 all point toward a visiting team capable of controlling this match. Cuiaba’s home record offers some comfort, and their 0-0 draw with Fortaleza earlier this season shows they can be organized. To be honest, though, that earlier stalemate came when Fortaleza had played fewer games and were still settling into the division. Fortaleza win, with both teams scoring, is our primary recommendation. Over 2.5 goals is a secondary play worth considering given Fortaleza’s recent 3-2 result and Cuiaba’s occasional ability to nick a goal at home.

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