Sofia Quijada
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Two of the Clausura’s bottom-half sides meet in a match where neither team can afford to keep dropping points. Cucuta sit 14th with five points from five games, while Alianza Petrolera are 17th with just two points from four outings. The head-to-head from the Apertura phase this year ended 1-1, and both sides arrive here in poor scoring form, making the dynamic of who blinks first genuinely interesting. Leider Berdugo leads Cucuta’s attacking movement with 13 shots across the last five matches, a number that stands out for a side struggling to convert, and Edgar Pardo is Alianza Petrolera’s sole scorer in recent games, netting once from seven attempts in four appearances.
A hot stat worth flagging: Cucuta conceded five goals in a single game against Once Caldas earlier in the run, a result that heavily distorts their -5 goal difference and hints at defensive fragility that Alianza Petrolera’s attackers should target.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026, Clausura |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:00 CEST |
Cucuta vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction
The bookmakers price this as a slight Cucuta advantage at around 40% implied probability, but the numbers suggest caution. Cucuta have won just one of their last five Clausura matches, and that came against Independiente Medellin, a top-four side, which is an outlier rather than a trend. Their overall 2026 winrate sits at 17%, barely behind Alianza Petrolera’s 19%. Both teams have drawn two of their last four or five games, and neither side has shown any consistent attacking output.
We predict a draw as the best value play here. The 1X2 draw price around 3.00-3.17 reflects the genuine probability better than the bookmakers’ 30% estimate suggests. Alianza Petrolera have drawn both of their away Clausura matches so far, and Cucuta’s home record is not convincing enough to justify backing them at odds below 2.30 with most books.
Cucuta average 14 yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Alianza Petrolera’s nine, suggesting Nicolás Chiesa’s side plays a more aggressive, pressuring style. With 51 fouls against 57, the difference is narrow, but Cucuta’s 65 free kicks conceded versus Alianza Petrolera’s 60 indicates a slightly more foul-prone approach. Neither team generates high corner volumes (17 vs 14 across five games), and pass accuracy figures are close, 1363 accurate passes for Cucuta against 1303 for Alianza Petrolera, pointing to a tight, low-tempo match. Two red cards for Cucuta in five games is a concern and could affect the match’s shape if discipline issues resurface.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw at Half Time |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Cucuta’s most recent result was a 1-0 win over Independiente Medellin, which was their only league win across the last five Clausura games. Before that, they drew with Internacional de Bogota (1-1), lost to Fortaleza (0-2), drew with Bucaramanga (1-1), and suffered that heavy 1-5 defeat against Once Caldas. The win over Medellin offers a glimmer of confidence, but the pattern across the 15-game form sequence shows far more draws and losses than wins. Cucuta have scored just four goals in their last five games while conceding nine, which tells the full story of their defensive vulnerability.
Alianza Petrolera come in without a win in their last four matches, drawing 0-0 with Deportivo Pereira most recently. Before that, they lost 2-3 to Bucaramanga, lost 1-2 to Deportes Tolima, and drew 1-1 with Fortaleza. Their only win in the extended run came against Bucaramanga in an earlier fixture. Camilo Ayala’s side has mustered just four goals in five matches while conceding six, and their winrate of 0% across the last 30 days is the most alarming figure in this matchup. With zero points from the last four matches, Alianza Petrolera are in a genuine relegation fight.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Cucuta | Alianza Petrolera |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Cucuta vs Alianza Petrolera stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Cucuta the Favourite
- Moneyline Cucuta 2.35 | Alianza Petrolera 3.05
- Draw 3.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
Pinnacle’s 2.40 on Cucuta is the sharpest line available and implies roughly 41.7% probability. The draw at 3.17 from Pinnacle translates to about 31.5%, which we consider underpriced given both teams’ recent output. Alianza Petrolera at 3.05 looks long considering their away Clausura record includes two draws from two games, but their winless run of four matches makes backing them outright hard to justify. The draw market at 3.00-3.17 offers the clearest value in this fixture.
Possible Starting Lineups
Cucuta Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Federico Abadia
- DF: Diego Calcaterra, Brayan Montano, Yair Abonia, Hernán Lópes
- MF: Sebastián Tamara, Victor Mejia, Leider Berdugo, Gustavo Torres, Samir Mayo
- FW: Marlon Carabalí
Cucuta line up most often in a 4-1-4-1 shape, with Federico Abadia behind a back four that has been rotated but generally features Calcaterra and Montano as the most consistent starters. Leider Berdugo is the standout name in midfield, leading the squad in shots (13) and passes (193) across the last five games. Marlon Carabalí operates as the lone forward and, despite having no goals, has one assist and represents the main outlet. Nicolás Chiesa may be tempted to keep this compact structure given the team’s recent defensive issues.
Alianza Petrolera Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Johan Wallens
- DF: Pedro Franco, Jesus Figueroa, Yilson Rosales, Juan Viveros
- MF: Jair Castillo, Carlos Esparragoza, Fabián Cantillo, Wiston Fernández
- FW: Edgar Pardo, Deinner Quiñones
Alianza Petrolera operate in a 4-2-3-1 that, in practice, looks more like a 4-4-2 with their current personnel. Pedro Franco is the most active defender with 214 passes and seven interceptions across four matches. Jair Castillo anchors the midfield with nine interceptions, the highest in the squad, giving Camilo Ayala’s side a defensive base to work from. Edgar Pardo is the only player to have scored in recent matches and carries the attacking responsibility alongside Deinner Quiñones, who has one assist and decent passing output from a wider position. Johan Wallens starts in goal with 10 saves across four appearances.
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Cucuta. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Both sides are firmly in the lower half of the Clausura table and arrive here without momentum. Cucuta’s only win came against a top-four side in an outlier performance, and Alianza Petrolera have not won in four straight matches. The only previous meeting this year ended 1-1, which aligns with the profile of this fixture. Low corner output, tight passing stats, and high foul counts from both teams point to a scrappy, low-scoring affair. We predict a 1-1 draw, backing the draw market at Pinnacle’s 3.17 as the headline bet, with Under 2.5 goals as a supporting option given both teams’ combined average of fewer than two goals per game in recent outings.
