Arjun Menon
CSKA Sofia and Qarabag meet again at the Vasil Levski National Sports Academy in Sofia for the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2026/27 Second Qualifying Round tie. The first leg ended 0-0 in Baku, which means everything is still to play for. A single goal tonight could be enough to send one side through, and that makes the match tense from the opening minute.
CSKA Sofia striker Ioannis Pittas is the man to watch for the hosts. He has scored 3 goals in the last 4 matches and will be central to any attacking threat CSKA produces. For Qarabag, Zakaria Sawo stands out with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 4 appearances, making him the most dangerous player on the visiting side.
Hot stat: Qarabag racked up 38 corner kicks across their last 5 matches compared to CSKA Sofia’s 16, which signals a significantly more aggressive and possession-oriented attacking style from the Azerbaijani side.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Vasil Levski National Sports Academy, Sofia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 30.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction
With a 0-0 scoreline from the first leg, both teams know that a draw tonight sends the tie to extra time or penalties, but neither side will be fully comfortable with that. CSKA Sofia have home advantage and a strong recent run of form, winning 5 of their last 7 matches. Qarabag, on the other hand, have been inconsistent over the past month, winning only 2 of their last 5. Playing at home in a European knockout tie gives CSKA a real edge.
The bookmakers see this as a genuinely open match, with CSKA Sofia edging the probability at 38%. We agree that the home side carries a slight advantage. The first leg was cautious and tight, but a second leg at home often opens up more space, particularly when the home team needs to push for a result. We predict CSKA Sofia to score at least once, and the match to stay under 3 goals given how organized both defenses have been.
CSKA Sofia average only 8 yellow cards across 5 matches, which is notable but not extreme. Qarabag have been far more disciplined with just 2 yellow cards in the same period. Qarabag’s 4-4-2 shape tends to sit in two compact banks of four, absorbing pressure before transitioning quickly. CSKA’s 4-3-3 gives them width and pressing ability, which should create some openings. The corner kick disparity is worth factoring in for side markets, with Qarabag generating significantly more attacking set-piece situations.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | CSKA Sofia to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
CSKA Sofia come into this match in solid form. Over the last 30 days they have won 5 and drawn 2 from 7 games, with no defeats. Their most recent match was a 3-2 win over Botev Plovdiv, a result that showed their ability to score in bunches when given space. Before that, the goalless draw in Baku against Qarabag demonstrated defensive discipline on the road. They also beat Derry City twice in the Europa League qualifying rounds, 3-2 and 2-1, which shows they can handle the pressure of two-legged ties.
Qarabag’s recent record is more mixed. They won just 2 of their last 5 matches, with 2 losses and a draw in that run. Their last outing was a 3-0 win over Vestri, but that came against very modest opposition. Before the first leg against CSKA, they suffered a heavy 2-6 defeat against FC Kharkiv Metalist 1925, which raised questions about their defensive structure. A 0-1 loss to Ferencvaros also showed they can struggle against organized European opposition. Zakaria Sawo has been their brightest performer, but the team as a whole has been inconsistent.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have now met twice in this qualifying round, with both matches ending 0-0. The stats from the most recent encounter reflect the cautious approach both teams have taken.
| Statistic | CSKA Sofia | Qarabag |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: CSKA Sofia the Favourite
- Moneyline CSKA Sofia 2.50 | Qarabag 2.75
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds reflect a genuinely tight match. CSKA Sofia at around 2.50 represents fair value given their home advantage and better recent form. Qarabag at 2.75 is not without merit given their European pedigree, but their inconsistency over the past month makes backing them harder to justify. The draw at 3.25 is the least attractive option from a value perspective, though it remains a real possibility given how the first leg played out. We lean toward CSKA Sofia to win at home.
Qarabag. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
CSKA Sofia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dimitar Evtimov
- DF: David Samuel Custódio Lima, Facundo Rodriguez, Ángelo Martino, Andrey Yordanov
- MF: Stefano Sensi, Bruno Jordão, Georgi Chorbadzhiyski
- FW: Ioannis Pittas, Santiago Godoy, Isaac Solet Bomawoko
Dimitar Evtimov takes the gloves having featured in 4 of the last 5 matches. Facundo Rodriguez has been a regular starter but carries 3 yellow cards, so he will need to be careful in a tie this tight. Stefano Sensi brings creativity from midfield with an assist in recent games, and Bruno Jordão has chipped in with a goal. Up front, Ioannis Pittas is the focal point with 3 goals in his last 4 appearances. CSKA are expected to line up in their familiar 4-3-3.
Qarabag Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Mateusz Kochalski
- DF: Matheus Silva, Bence Várkonyi, Bruno Langa, Badavi Huseynov
- MF: Marko Janković, Pedro Bicalho, Kady Iuri Borges Malinowski, Oleksii Kashchuk
- FW: Zakaria Sawo, Abdellah Zoubir
Mateusz Kochalski has been Qarabag’s first-choice goalkeeper across the last 4 matches. Matheus Silva and Bence Várkonyi have both played the full 90 minutes in every recent game and form the defensive backbone. Zakaria Sawo is the standout name going forward, with 2 goals and 3 assists in his last 4 games. Abdellah Zoubir adds a goal threat from wide. Qarabag are expected to stick with their 4-4-2 shape, looking to stay compact and hit on the counter.
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CSKA Sofia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This second leg is set up for a tight, low-scoring affair. Both defenses have already proven they can keep a clean sheet against each other, and neither side showed much attacking ambition in Baku. CSKA Sofia’s home record and current form make them the side more likely to find a goal, and Pittas has been sharp in front of goal lately.
Qarabag’s 2-6 loss to Metalist 1925 is a concern at the back, but they will approach this differently, with more structure and defensive intent. We predict CSKA Sofia to win 1-0, advancing on aggregate. The corner market is also worth targeting given Qarabag’s tendency to generate set-piece situations in volume. Back Under 2.5 goals as the primary market, with CSKA Sofia to win as the match outcome pick.
