Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
CSKA Sofia host OFI Crete at Vasil Levski National Stadium in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League 2026/27 Playoff tie. The Bulgarian side arrives at this match with a mountain to climb: OFI Crete delivered a commanding 3-0 win in the first leg, making this a near-elimination fixture for Hristo Yanev’s men. A three-goal deficit means CSKA must score at least four times without conceding to advance through normal time, which makes this one of the more lopsided second-leg situations in this round of the competition.
OFI Crete’s Taxiarchis Fountas has been in red-hot form, registering four goals across the last three matches, and he will be the biggest threat to any CSKA recovery attempt. For the home side, Stefano Sensi carries the creative burden in midfield and his ability to dictate tempo will be central to whether CSKA can even make a game of this.
A hot stat worth noting: OFI Crete scored eight goals across their last five matches while conceding just once in the most recent outing against Volos. That attacking output makes life extremely difficult for any team needing a big scoreline.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27, Playoffs |
| 🏟 Venue: | Vasil Levski National Stadium, Sofia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
CSKA Sofia vs OFI Crete Prediction
The aggregate score entering this second leg is 0-3 in OFI Crete’s favour. CSKA Sofia need a miracle result to advance, and the bookmakers reflect that reality with the home win priced around 1.43 on average. The win probability of 65% for CSKA Sofia covers the match result only, not the tie outcome, and that distinction matters here.
OFI Crete’s priority will be game management. Christos Kontis will set his side up to absorb pressure and hit on the counter, and that approach suits the Greek side’s recent style perfectly. CSKA will push men forward, which naturally opens space behind their defensive line. A CSKA win on the night is possible given the home pressure and crowd, but OFI scoring at least once in this environment is equally likely given how they operate.
We predict OFI Crete to score in this match. Their attacking structure, led by Fountas and supported by Lorenzo Dickmann’s runs from deep, has produced goals consistently. CSKA’s defensive stats from their last five matches show two red cards and 11 yellow cards, which points to a backline under stress that could be exploited. CSKA’s passing accuracy and interception data is also largely absent from recent games, suggesting defensive organisation is not their strength right now.
OFI’s disciplined midfield, anchored by Andreas Bouchalakis and Aitor Cantalapiedra with two interceptions each, will look to disrupt CSKA’s build-up play early. CSKA’s 3-4-3 formation gives them attacking width, but their midfield may struggle to win second balls against a more organised OFI unit. Sensi’s yellow card accumulation across four games adds a suspension risk if he pushes too hard in the press.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | OFI Crete to score in the second half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
CSKA Sofia enter this second leg in difficult form at the worst possible time. Their last five results include a 3-0 loss to OFI Crete in the first leg, a 5-0 win over Botev Vratsa, a 1-3 defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv, a 3-0 win over Septemvri Sofia, and a 3-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv in the earlier round. The domestic wins are encouraging in isolation, but the European record tells a different story. CSKA have been beaten by both Maccabi Tel Aviv and OFI Crete in competitive UEFA matches, conceding six goals across those two defeats. Their last 30 days show a 67% win rate across nine matches, but the quality of opposition in those wins was largely domestic.
OFI Crete arrive at this fixture with confidence. Their most recent result was a 2-0 home win over Volos, a clean sheet that follows the dominant 3-0 first-leg performance against CSKA. Before that, they suffered a 1-2 loss to Willem II and a 2-3 defeat to NAC Breda, plus a 0-4 loss to GA Eagles. The Greek side’s form has been inconsistent in friendlies and domestic warm-up fixtures, but they have clearly peaked at the right moment for this European tie. Their 40% win rate over the last 30 days across five matches understates their current momentum, given those losses came against strong Dutch opposition.
🚨Check out our dedicated CSKA Sofia vs OFI Crete stats page for more info.
OFI Crete. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: CSKA Sofia the favourite
- Moneyline CSKA Sofia 1.43 | OFI Crete 6.55
- Draw 4.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The moneyline odds reflect the match result only, and CSKA Sofia at 1.43 is a fair price for a home win on the night. To be honest, the aggregate situation makes OFI Crete the real favourites to advance, even if CSKA win this leg. The draw price of 4.40 is generous given OFI’s likely conservative approach. A draw would still send OFI Crete through, which means Kontis has every reason to sit deep and protect the lead. Backing OFI Crete at 6.55 carries real value for those who believe the Greek side will manage the game well enough to sneak a goal or hold out for a draw.
Possible Starting Lineups
CSKA Sofia possible starting eleven
- GK: Fedor Lapoukhov
- DF: Facundo Rodriguez, Andrey Yordanov, David Samuel Custódio Lima
- MF: Jean-Philippe Gbamin, Stefano Sensi, Max Ebong, James Eto’o
- FW: Santiago Godoy, Ioannis Pittas, Joel Zwarts
This 3-4-3 setup mirrors CSKA’s most used formation from recent matches. Fedor Lapoukhov starts in goal ahead of Dimitar Evtimov, having logged the full 360 minutes across the last four games. Stefano Sensi is the key figure in midfield despite his yellow card accumulation, and his passing range will be essential if CSKA are to create enough chances to threaten OFI’s backline. Max Ebong provides a direct goal threat from midfield. Santiago Godoy and Ioannis Pittas offer movement in behind, and their combination play could be the best route to goal against an OFI side that will look to stay compact.
OFI Crete possible starting eleven
- GK: Nikolaos Christogeorgos
- DF: Christos Sielis, Achilleas Poungouras, Konstantinos Kostoulas, Lorenzo Dickmann
- MF: Andreas Bouchalakis, Aitor Cantalapiedra, Georgios Kanellopoulos
- FW: Taxiarchis Fountas, Thiago Nuss, Giannis Theodosoulakis
OFI Crete line up in their familiar 4-3-3 shape. Nikolaos Christogeorgos gets the nod in goal based on his playing time across the last three fixtures. Christos Sielis and Achilleas Poungouras form a solid central defensive partnership with strong pass accuracy between them. In attack, Taxiarchis Fountas is the standout name with four goals in three recent appearances. Thiago Nuss adds a secondary goal threat, and Lorenzo Dickmann’s attacking runs from right back have directly contributed two goals this run. Kanellopoulos will need to manage his yellow card carefully in an atmosphere that will push CSKA to press high.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
CSKA Sofia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
CSKA Sofia will push for goals from the first whistle, and the home crowd at Vasil Levski will generate real pressure. Despite that, the task is simply too large. OFI Crete have shown in the first leg and in recent matches that they can absorb pressure and punish teams on the break. Fountas is too dangerous to ignore, and OFI’s defensive structure with Sielis, Poungouras, and Bouchalakis shielding the back four is genuinely difficult to break down.
We predict a CSKA Sofia win on the night by a narrow margin, perhaps 2-1, but OFI Crete will advance on aggregate. Both teams to score looks the standout market here, and over 2.5 goals follows naturally from CSKA’s need to attack relentlessly. OFI scoring at least once on the counter is a near certainty given their recent output and CSKA’s defensive vulnerabilities. The second half is where this match will open up most, as CSKA chase the tie with increasing desperation.
