Liam Duckstein
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The second leg of this UEFA Conference League Third Qualifying Round tie takes place on 11 August at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo, with the aggregate score locked at 1-1 after the first leg ended in a draw in Athens. CSKA 1948 Sofia need a win to progress, while Panathinaikos will back themselves to get the job done away from home given the bookmakers’ clear preference for the Greek side. What makes this interesting is that the first leg was played at Panathinaikos’ ground, and the Bulgarian side left with a point, so confidence in the home camp is not without foundation.
Two players stand out heading into this match. Adriano Jagusic has been the driving force in Panathinaikos’ attack over the last five games, scoring three goals and generating 12 shots, making him the most dangerous presence on the pitch. For CSKA 1948 Sofia, Georgi Rusev is the man to watch, with two goals in three appearances and the most shots among his teammates, giving the hosts their most credible attacking threat.
A hot stat from Panathinaikos’ recent run: they recorded 66 total shots across their last five matches compared to CSKA 1948 Sofia’s 48, and their pass accuracy of 2,089 out of 2,442 attempted passes dwarfs anything the Bulgarian side has produced. That level of control in midfield is hard to ignore.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:30 CEST |
CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos Prediction
With the tie level on aggregate, Panathinaikos carry the greater European experience and the stronger squad depth into this second leg. The first leg showed that CSKA 1948 Sofia are capable of competing, but Panathinaikos have now had a close look at their opponents and coach Jacob Neestrup will have made adjustments. The Greek side’s superior passing volume and defensive structure, with Stefan de Vrij leading from the back and Pedro Chirivella dictating from midfield, points toward a controlled away performance.
We predict Panathinaikos to win this match. The Bulgarian side has been hard to beat domestically, going unbeaten in their last seven games before this tie, but European football against a side of Panathinaikos’ calibre is a different challenge. The Greeks’ 4-1 loss to SK Rapid Wien earlier in their European campaign is the one blemish, but they have responded well since then, winning their two Paksi playoff legs and drawing the first leg here. Expect them to create more and convert in Karlovo.
CSKA 1948 Sofia commit fouls at a lower rate across their last five matches (22 total fouls) compared to Panathinaikos (44), which suggests the hosts may sit in a compact defensive shape and try to hit on the counter. Panathinaikos’ high foul count reflects their aggressive pressing style. With 50 free kicks earned in five matches, the Greek side will look to use set pieces as a weapon, and their five offsides recorded show they push a high line regularly. CSKA’s direct forward play from Rusev and Mamadou Diallo could test that line, but the overall quality differential is hard to overcome over 90 minutes.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Panathinaikos to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
CSKA 1948 Sofia arrive at this second leg on a solid domestic run. In the five matches before the first leg, they beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-1 and Botev Vratsa 2-1, with Arda also falling 2-1. A goalless draw against Spartak Trnava in European qualifying was the only blank. That domestic form shows a team that scores regularly against Bulgarian opposition and knows how to grind out results. Georgi Rusev’s two goals in three games are the standout output, and Hector Cuellar’s two assists indicate the team has a functional creative link between midfield and attack. The first leg draw, where they held Panathinaikos to 1-1 away from home, was arguably their best European result in recent memory.
Panathinaikos’ recent European campaign has been mixed but ultimately productive. A heavy 4-1 defeat to SK Rapid Wien was a concerning result, but they responded by beating Grasshopper 3-0 and then eliminating Paksi over two legs with a 2-1 win followed by a 2-2 draw. The first leg against CSKA 1948 Sofia ended 1-1, which keeps the tie alive but also means Panathinaikos know that a single goal in this second leg could be enough if they keep it clean. Adriano Jagusic’s form is the most encouraging factor, three goals in four European appearances, and Santino Andino’s two assists show the midfield can create consistently. Iñaki Peña has made five saves across four matches, suggesting the defence is not completely watertight but is managing pressure.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have only recently met in European competition, with the first leg of this very tie providing the most relevant reference point. The stats from that match are reflected below.
| Statistic | CSKA 1948 Sofia | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Panathinaikos stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Panathinaikos the Favourite
- Moneyline CSKA 1948 Sofia 4.30 | Panathinaikos 1.77
- Draw 3.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The odds paint a clear picture. Panathinaikos at around 1.77 reflects their superior squad and the fact that a draw here sends the tie to extra time, giving them a safety net. CSKA 1948 Sofia at 4.30 is a fair price for a side that held their own in Athens but faces a much harder task at home needing to win. The draw at 3.40 carries some value if you believe CSKA will defend deep and Panathinaikos struggle to break them down, but to be honest, the Greek side’s attacking output over recent matches makes a goalless draw unlikely. The Panathinaikos win line at 1.77 looks like the most straightforward play given everything the data points toward.
Possible Starting Lineups
CSKA 1948 Sofia Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Dimitar Sheytanov
- DF: Lasha Dvali, Andre Hoffmann, Ognjen Gasevic, Fourat Soltani
- MF: Jules Meyer, Hector Cuellar, Moataz Zemzemi
- FW: Georgi Rusev, Atanas Iliev, Frederic Maciel
Aleksandar Aleksandrov is expected to set up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, which the team has used consistently in their last five matches. Lasha Dvali and Andre Hoffmann form the central defensive partnership, both logging full 300-minute appearances across the last three games. Hector Cuellar is the key creative outlet with two assists and will need to find Georgi Rusev, who is the team’s most productive attacker. Frederic Maciel offers experience and movement across the front line, while Moataz Zemzemi provides balance in midfield. Dragan Grivić is likely to miss out despite recent appearances, with Gasevic preferred at right back given his interception numbers.
Panathinaikos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Iñaki Peña
- DF: Stefan de Vrij, Triantafyllos Tsapras, Giorgos Kyriakopoulos, Rick Van Drongelen
- MF: Pedro Chirivella, Etiene Camara, Adam Gnezda Čerin, Santino Andino
- FW: Adriano Jagusic, Elmin Rastoder
Jacob Neestrup has leaned on a 4-2-3-1 shape and is unlikely to change it for a second leg where a draw advances his side. Stefan de Vrij brings composure and has contributed an assist from deep, while Triantafyllos Tsapras has accumulated four yellow cards across four matches, meaning he needs to be careful here. Pedro Chirivella and Etiene Camara form a disciplined holding midfield, with Chirivella’s seven interceptions in four matches showing his defensive awareness. Adriano Jagusic is the man to watch, operating as the number ten or second striker behind Rastoder. Santino Andino’s two assists make him a constant threat from wide midfield positions. Facundo Pellistri and Anass Zaroury provide options off the bench if the game opens up.
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Panathinaikos. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
This second leg carries real tension given the 1-1 aggregate score, but the data points firmly toward Panathinaikos. Their passing volume, shot output, and individual quality in the final third are all superior. CSKA 1948 Sofia have been hard to beat domestically, but their attacking statistics across the last five matches are modest, with just two goals and limited shot creation outside of Rusev’s efforts.
Panathinaikos showed in the Paksi tie that they can manage a two-legged European contest intelligently. We predict they win this match by a single goal margin, with Jagusic or Andino the most likely source. CSKA may grab a goal of their own given how this tie has played out, which makes both teams to score a reasonable secondary bet alongside the Panathinaikos win. The over 2.5 goals market also looks attractive given both sides have been involved in open matches in recent weeks.
