Liam Duckstein
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Crvena Zvezda face a must-win second leg at Rajko Mitić Stadion after losing the first leg 0-1 to Hapoel Beer Sheva. Dejan Stankovic’s side must overturn a one-goal deficit at home, where they have been dominant in domestic competition. The pressure is entirely on the Serbian giants, and Hapoel arrive knowing that even a draw could be enough to send them through depending on away goals rules. One thing to keep an eye on: Aleksandar Katai has registered four assists in his last six appearances, making him the most influential creator in Crvena Zvezda’s attack heading into this decisive night.
Zahi Ahmed has been Hapoel Beer Sheva’s most clinical performer in recent weeks, scoring three goals in four matches despite registering zero shots in the data. His movement off the ball and positional awareness make him a constant threat that Crvena Zvezda’s backline cannot afford to ignore. On the home side, Osman Bukari brings two goals and an assist from his last six games, and his direct running on the wing will be key to breaking down a disciplined Israeli defensive shape.
A hot stat worth flagging: Crvena Zvezda registered 123 total shots across their last five matches compared to just 48 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. That’s a gap of 75 attempts, which underlines just how dominant in terms of volume the Serbian side tends to be when playing at home.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Rajko Mitić Stadion, Belgrade |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction
Crvena Zvezda need a win to progress, and their home record supports the case for them delivering one. Over the last 30 days they won five of seven matches, and across the full year they carry a 68% win rate from 38 games. Hapoel Beer Sheva, by contrast, won just two of their last five, with three defeats in that run.
The aggregate situation forces Zvezda to attack from the first whistle. Their 4-3-3 system generates high shot volumes, and against a Hapoel side that has been inconsistent in recent weeks, the home side should find enough space to score. We predict a Crvena Zvezda win and the match to produce goals at both ends, given Hapoel’s ability to hit on the counter as they showed in the first leg.
Crvena Zvezda commit fouls at a rate of roughly 19 per five games and have picked up 16 yellow cards in that stretch, showing an aggressive pressing style. Hapoel are considerably more conservative with just 10 fouls and 16 yellow cards across five games, but they also win far fewer second balls. Their 85% pass accuracy in their own right is solid, but their total pass count of 425 over five games reveals a team that plays compact and direct rather than dominant. That suits a counter-attacking approach, which is exactly the threat Zvezda must manage.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Crvena Zvezda to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Crvena Zvezda’s recent domestic form has been convincing. They beat Novi Pazar 2-0 in their most recent league outing, and before that they dismantled Larne 5-0 and 4-0 in consecutive European legs, demonstrating ruthless finishing when the opposition is within reach. The 3-1 win over Vojvodina also showed their ability to manage games that get complicated. The only real blot in the recent run is the 0-1 loss to Hapoel in the first leg, which came as a genuine shock given that Zvezda were considered heavy favourites at 80% going into that match.
Hapoel Beer Sheva earned their narrow first-leg win, but the wider recent picture is less flattering. They lost 1-3 to both Maccabi Tel Aviv and Legia in their last five matches, and their only positive European result before the first leg was a 2-0 win over Vikingur Reykjavik after losing the first leg of that tie 1-2. Their away form in competitive knockout football has been inconsistent, and facing a Crvena Zvezda side desperate for a result on home soil is a different challenge entirely.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have only met in this qualifying campaign, with Hapoel taking the first leg 1-0 in Belgrade. The second leg is the fixture we are previewing here.
| Statistic | Crvena Zvezda | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Crvena Zvezda vs Hapoel Beer Sheva stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Crvena Zvezda the Favourite
- Moneyline Crvena Zvezda 1.29 | Hapoel Beer Sheva 8.08
- Draw 5.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market has Crvena Zvezda as clear favourites at around 1.25 to 1.33 across bookmakers, which reflects the 73% win probability attached to them. Those odds are short, but the context justifies the price. Zvezda are at home, they need to win, and they carry significantly more firepower than their opponents. The draw and Hapoel win odds in the 5.00 to 9.90 range are generous and reflect the bookmakers’ assessment that a Hapoel progression would be a genuine upset. To be honest, the best value here is likely found in the both teams to score market rather than the straight win, given Hapoel’s counter-attacking threat.
Possible Starting Lineups
Crvena Zvezda Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matheus
- DF: Seol Young-woo, Strahinja Erakovic, Franklin Tebo Uchenna, Nikola Stankovic
- MF: Nayair Tiknizyan, Timi Elsnik, Mohammad Abu Fani
- FW: Aleksandar Katai, Marko Arnautović, Osman Bukari
Matheus starts in goal having appeared in six of the last six matches. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Seol Young-woo operating as a consistent presence at right back and Erakovic anchoring the left side of central defence. In midfield, Abu Fani’s range of passing and Elsnik’s work rate provide the engine, while Tiknizyan offers defensive cover on the right. Katai is the key man in attack given his four assists in recent weeks, and Arnautović’s physical presence up front should cause problems for Hapoel’s centre-backs. Zvezda will likely line up in their familiar 4-3-3.
Hapoel Beer Sheva Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Ofir Marciano
- DF: Miguel Vitor, Matan Baltaksa, Ofir Davidzada, Guy Mizrahi
- MF: Lucas de Souza Ventura, Kings Kangwa, Eilel Peretz
- FW: Igor Zlatanović, Zahi Ahmed, Amir Chaim Ganah
Ofir Marciano has been ever-present in goal with four saves registered, and he will be busy at Rajko Mitić. Baltaksa has accumulated two red cards in five matches, which is a concern for a side that needs to defend with discipline. Kings Kangwa is the most dynamic presence in midfield with two goals and an assist in three games, and his energy could be decisive in transition. Zahi Ahmed leads the line and remains the primary goal threat. Hapoel will look to hold their 4-2-3-1 shape and absorb pressure before striking on the break.
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Hapoel Beer Sheva. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Crvena Zvezda have the firepower, the home crowd, and a tactical obligation to attack. Their shot volume across recent matches dwarfs that of Hapoel Beer Sheva, and Stankovic’s side have shown they can score freely when the occasion demands it, as the Larne ties proved. Hapoel are compact and disciplined, but they have lost three of their last five and their away resilience in high-pressure knockout environments is untested at this level.
We predict Crvena Zvezda to win 2-1, overturning the aggregate deficit and progressing to the next round. Both teams to score looks like the smart accompanying market, and Zvezda scoring in both halves at around the 38 corners they have generated in five games suggests they will dominate territory throughout. Hapoel’s counter threat is real, so a clean sheet for Zvezda seems unlikely, but a home win feels like the most probable outcome on the night.
