Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense Prediction: 06.08.2026 Copa do Brasil 2026

This Copa do Brasil Round of 16 second leg comes after both sides played out a goalless draw in the first meeting, meaning everything is still to play for at Estádio Mineirão. Cruzeiro enter as heavy favorites on home soil, backed by a 68% win probability, but Chapecoense’s defensive resilience in that first leg cannot be ignored. Matheus Pereira is the man to watch for Cruzeiro, with 2 goals in 4 appearances and the highest shot volume among their midfielders. For Chapecoense, Camilo Reijers de Oliveira pulls the strings in central midfield with 15 interceptions across 5 matches, making him key to disrupting Cruzeiro’s build-up play.

Hot stat: Chapecoense have recorded 59 interceptions across their last 5 matches compared to Cruzeiro’s 41, showing a disciplined, defense-first approach that kept Cruzeiro scoreless in the first leg.

Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense Prediction

With a 0-0 aggregate scoreline and Cruzeiro at home, Artur Jorge’s side needs a win to advance without penalties. Their 4-5-1 shape gives them midfield control, and Matheus Pereira alongside Gerson creates a creative duo that Chapecoense will struggle to contain over 90 minutes. Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 6 matches and carry 75 total shots across their last 5 games to Chapecoense’s 54. The volume advantage is clear.

Chapecoense’s 4-2-3-1 is built to absorb pressure. With 61 fouls and 59 interceptions in 5 matches, Rafael Lacerda’s side fouls early and often to disrupt rhythm. That style tends to generate bookings, and Cruzeiro’s own 11 yellow cards across 5 games suggests both benches will see card activity. Cruzeiro’s pass accuracy sits at 2038 accurate passes from 2387 attempted, while Chapecoense managed just 1353 from 1639, confirming the possession gap. Expect Cruzeiro to dominate the ball, create chances, and eventually break through, though a second clean sheet for Chapecoense is not impossible.

• We predict Cruzeiro to win in regulation, given their home advantage, superior squad depth, and the pressure of a knockout tie that finished 0-0.
• Total goals lean toward Over 1.5 rather than 2.5, as Chapecoense’s defensive block is organized and Cruzeiro have scored only 3 goals in 5 matches.
• Both teams to score looks unlikely given Chapecoense’s low attacking output and Cruzeiro’s solid defensive record in recent games.

Team Analysis

Cruzeiro’s last 5 matches show a mixed but encouraging picture. They beat Coritiba 1-0 and Internacional 2-1 in their most recent competitive wins, showing they can grind out results. The loss to Botafogo RJ (0-1) and a heavy 1-3 defeat to Gremio earlier are the blemishes, but both came against high-ranked opposition. The Copa do Brasil first leg against Chapecoense ended 0-0, a match where Cruzeiro carried the statistical advantage but lacked the final ball. Kaio Jorge leads the forward line with 10 shots in 5 appearances, and Fagner’s 2 assists from right back show Cruzeiro’s attacking intent comes from wide areas. Their 4-5-1 structure packs the midfield, and with Matheus Henrique and Lucas Romer providing defensive cover, the team is hard to break on the counter.

Chapecoense arrive at Mineirão having drawn 0-0 in the first leg and drawn 2-2 with Santos before that, but their recent form also includes a 0-4 hammering by Flamengo RJ and a 0-2 loss to Bahia. Their only win in the last 5 came against Gremio, a 2-1 result that shows they can produce when motivated. Yannick Bolasie leads their attacking threat with 8 shots across 5 matches, and Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior is their only scorer in this run with 1 goal. The midfield trio of Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Giovanni Augusto, and Bruno Matias provides industry but limited creativity. Their goalkeeper situation is worth noting: Matheus Aurelio has 12 saves in 270 minutes, suggesting he has been tested regularly and will need to be sharp again here.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Cruzeiro the favourite

• Moneyline Cruzeiro 1.37 | Chapecoense 9.00
• Draw 4.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

Cruzeiro’s moneyline odds around 1.35 to 1.38 across most books reflect the near-certainty the market assigns to a home win. The draw at 4.50 and Chapecoense at 9.00 are long prices, though the draw has some value given both sides’ low-scoring tendencies. To be honest, the tight odds on Cruzeiro leave little room for value on the 1X2 market. The “Cruzeiro to win to nil” angle, supported by Chapecoense scoring just 2 goals in 5 matches, offers better value as a same-game option.

Possible Starting Lineups

Cruzeiro possible starting eleven

Cruzeiro line up in their familiar 4-5-1, with Otávio Costa as the undisputed starter between the sticks. The back four picks itself: William and Fagner at fullback, with Fabrício Bruno and Jonathan Jesus as the central pairing. Jonathan Jesus carries 8 interceptions in 5 matches, making him the defensive anchor of the unit. Matheus Pereira is the standout creative force, capable of arriving late into the box. Kaio Jorge leads the line alone and needs service from wide to be effective. Keny Arroyo’s 20 shots across 4 matches makes him a constant threat from the left channel.

Chapecoense possible starting eleven

Chapecoense deploy a 4-2-3-1 with Matheus Aurelio in goal. Rafael Thyere and Bruno Pacheco form the central defensive partnership, with Thyere contributing 7 interceptions and Pacheco 5 across 5 games. Camilo Reijers de Oliveira sits deep as the primary defensive midfielder with 15 interceptions, his work rate the foundation of their press resistance. Yannick Bolasie operates from the right of the attacking three and is their biggest direct threat with 8 shots. Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior leads the line as the lone striker, the only player on the roster to score in this run of form.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Cruzeiro hold every structural advantage in this tie: home ground, superior passing volume, more shots, more corners, and a squad ranked far above Chapecoense on any objective measure. Artur Jorge’s side posted 75 shots across 5 matches to Chapecoense’s 54, and their corner count of 32 to 24 suggests they consistently force teams back. The first leg was goalless, but that was away from home where Cruzeiro tend to be more cautious. At Mineirão, with a knockout place at stake, we predict Cruzeiro to win 1-0 or 2-0. Chapecoense’s attack has produced just 2 goals in 5 games, and their best defensive performance already came in the first leg. A second clean sheet on the road in a hostile environment against a superior side seems unlikely. We back Cruzeiro to win and keep a clean sheet as the primary bet, with over 8.5 corners as a strong secondary market given Cruzeiro’s tendency to dominate territorial play.

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