Rafael Nogueira
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Cruzeiro welcome Bahia to the Mineirão sitting third in the table, four points above their visitors despite a rockier away record. Bahia arrive on the back of a mixed month, two wins and two losses in their last five, but their 3-2 win over Sao Paulo last weekend showed the attack still has teeth. The sharper detail here is Kaio Jorge: he has scored five goals in Cruzeiro’s last five matches, meaning he is personally responsible for half of the team’s entire goal tally in that stretch.
Kaio Jorge is the player to track up front for Cruzeiro, a striker in red hot form who leads every shot and goal column in the squad data. For Bahia, Alejo Veliz carries the most shot volume of any forward on the roster and looks their likeliest source of a goal threat against a Cruzeiro defense that has still shipped 46 goals in 33 league games.
Hot stat: Kaio Jorge’s five goals in five appearances give him a scoring rate matched by nobody else in this fixture, a stat our team at TipsGG considers the single biggest factor in this preview.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio Mineirão |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:30 CEST |
Cruzeiro vs Bahia prediction
We predict Cruzeiro to win this one outright. They sit third in the standings, have won four of their last five matches and are backed by a home crowd that has seen them score 10 goals across their last five outings. Bahia’s 40% winrate over the same stretch, including a loss to Flamengo and a scare against Santos, suggests their away form does not match Cruzeiro’s current output. Perhaps the smartest structured play pairs Cruzeiro’s win with Over 2.5 total goals, since both sides have shown they can score against anyone this month.
Cruzeiro average 87 shots and 32 corners across their last five games, a fouls count of 64 and a pass accuracy hovering in the mid-80s, numbers that point to a controlling, front-foot side. Bahia foul more often, 72 times in their last five, and their pass accuracy trails Cruzeiro’s, a gap that usually shows up in sustained pressure and set piece opportunities for the home side. Expect a physical edge from Bahia’s midfield, Jean Lucas and Nicolas Acevedo both carry multiple cards already, which could invite set piece chances for Cruzeiro.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Kaio Jorge to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Cruzeiro’s last match brought a 1-0 win over Atletico Mineiro, continuing a run that has seen them win four of their last five. Before that came wins over Remo and Gremio, a loss to Bragantino, and a win over Sao Paulo, a stretch that shows goals flowing consistently with Kaio Jorge doing most of the finishing. In our preview of Atletico Mineiro vs Cruzeiro we called Cruzeiro’s double chance paired with BTTS Yes, and the 1-0 away win delivered the double chance portion even though Atletico failed to get on the scoresheet.
Bahia’s last fixture was a 3-2 win over Sao Paulo, snapping a run of draws and giving Rogério Ceni’s side some late momentum heading into this trip. Before that a draw with Santos, a heavy 0-3 loss to Flamengo, and wins over Mirassol and Palmeiras’s opponents round out a stretch that looks solid on paper but has been inconsistent defensively. In our preview of Bahia vs Sao Paulo we called Sao Paulo’s double chance alongside BTTS Yes as the value angle, and the 3-2 Bahia win went against that double chance call even though goals arrived at both ends as predicted.
🚨Check out our dedicated Cruzeiro vs Bahia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Cruzeiro the favourite
- Moneyline Cruzeiro 1.67 | Bahia 4.45
- Draw 4.08
The market puts Cruzeiro clearly ahead, with bookmakers giving them roughly a 56% implied chance against 21% for Bahia. That gap tracks with the form table, Cruzeiro sit three places and four points higher, and their home scoring output has been the strongest storyline of their recent run. We see this as fair value rather than an overpriced favorite, Bahia’s away form simply has not matched their home numbers this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Cruzeiro possible starting eleven
- GK: Otávio Costa
- DF: William, Jonathan Jesus, Gabriel Rojas, Matías Viña
- MF: Lucas Silva, Gerson, Matheus Pereira, Zé Lucas, Keny Arroyo
- FW: Kaio Jorge
Artur Jorge keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that has delivered most of Cruzeiro’s recent wins. Gerson and Lucas Silva shield the back four while Matheus Pereira pulls the strings behind Kaio Jorge, who our team expects to be the most dangerous player on the pitch given his scoring rate this month.
Bahia possible starting eleven
- GK: Ronaldo
- DF: David Duarte, Marcos Victor, Marco Moreno, Kanu
- MF: Caio Alexandre, Jean Lucas, Rodrigo Nestor, Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho, Cristian Olivera
- FW: Alejo Veliz
Rogério Ceni also lines up in a 4-2-3-1, with Caio Alexandre and Jean Lucas protecting the back line. Alejo Veliz leads the shot count among Bahia forwards and will need a big performance to trouble a Cruzeiro defense playing with confidence at home.
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Bahia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Cruzeiro to win carries the strongest statistical backing here, four wins from their last five, a home attack averaging two goals a game, and a head-to-head record tilted firmly in their favor over the last two years. Bahia’s capacity to score, evidenced by their 3-2 comeback over Sao Paulo, keeps BTTS and Over 2.5 goals live markets worth considering alongside the straight win. To be honest, Bahia’s defensive lapses this season make a clean sheet unlikely for either side, so our team leans toward Cruzeiro Win combined with goals at both ends as the shape of this result.
