Rafael Nogueira
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The Copa do Brasil 2026 Quarterfinals deliver one of Brazilian football’s most charged derbies as Cruzeiro host Atletico Mineiro. These two sides met twice at this exact stage a year ago, with Cruzeiro winning both legs 2-0, making this rematch a direct shot at revenge for Eduardo Domínguez’s side. Cruzeiro enter as bookmakers’ favourites at 48%, yet Atletico arrive unbeaten in their last 8 matches, and that form is hard to ignore.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Tomás Cuello has been Atletico Mineiro’s most dangerous attacker across the last five matches, contributing 4 goals with 9 total shots, and his movement in behind will test Cruzeiro’s defensive line. For Cruzeiro, Keny Arroyo leads the forward line with 2 goals, 11 shots, and a relentless pressing work rate that has caused problems for every side he has faced recently.
Hot stat: Tomás Cuello has scored 4 goals in just 5 matches for Atletico Mineiro, averaging a goal every 72 minutes, making him the most in-form attacker in this fixture by a considerable margin.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa do Brasil 2026, Quarterfinals |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Cruzeiro vs Atletico Mineiro Prediction
Cruzeiro’s home advantage, superior win rate over 30 days (56% vs 50%), and their historical dominance in this specific Copa do Brasil matchup all point toward a Cruzeiro win. Artur Jorge’s side has scored 9 goals across their last 5 matches with 75 total shots, showing clear attacking intent. Atletico, to be honest, have been more cautious, with 57 shots in the same period, and their draw-heavy recent form (4 draws in 8 games) suggests they are difficult to beat but not always clinical enough to win.
Cruzeiro commit more fouls on average (65 in 5 matches vs Atletico’s 57), which reflects a more aggressive pressing structure under Artur Jorge. Atletico’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors Cruzeiro’s shape, so the midfield battle will be tight. Cruzeiro’s pass accuracy data (1813 accurate from 2144 attempts) matches Atletico’s exactly, meaning neither side dominates possession; transitions and set pieces could be decisive. Atletico earn fewer yellow cards (9 vs 14), suggesting a more disciplined defensive approach, which may help them contain Cruzeiro’s wide threats.
- We predict Cruzeiro to win this first leg at home, with their attacking depth and Copa do Brasil pedigree against this opponent giving them the edge.
- A low-scoring match is plausible given Atletico’s unbeaten run and disciplined shape, but Cruzeiro’s home record makes them the clear selection.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Cruzeiro to Win & Under 3.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Cruzeiro have won 5 of their last 9 matches, losing 2, and their recent run includes back-to-back Copa do Brasil wins against Flamengo RJ (2-1) and a 2-1 league win over Corinthians. The Flamengo scalp is particularly notable given Flamengo’s strong recent form. They did drop a 1-2 result against Flamengo in the middle of that sequence, showing they are not invincible, but the response was immediate. With 9 goals across 5 matches and 75 shots, their attack has been productive, and Keny Arroyo and Bruno Rodrigues both contributing goals and assists from wide areas adds variety to their build-up play.
Atletico Mineiro are unbeaten in 8 matches, though 4 of those ended in draws, including a 2-2 against Bragantino and a 0-0 against Internacional most recently. Their last result, a 0-0 draw with Internacional, is the only concern heading into this fixture as it points to a team that can be contained. Their standout performance was a 3-0 win over Gremio, and Tomás Cuello’s 4 goals across the campaign make him the key threat. Everson has made 20 saves in 5 matches, which is a high number, meaning Atletico have relied on their goalkeeper at times to maintain their unbeaten run.
🚨Check out our dedicated Cruzeiro vs Atletico Mineiro stats page for more info.
Atletico Mineiro. Source: Official Facebook
The head-to-head record is split, with Cruzeiro holding a 4-2-3 edge across these 9 meetings. Cruzeiro’s Copa do Brasil record against Atletico is perfect, with four wins from four legs at this specific stage in 2025. Atletico have, though, beaten Cruzeiro twice in Série A and once in the Mineiro regular season this year, showing they are more than capable of taking points from their rivals in league football. The Copa context seems to suit Cruzeiro.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Cruzeiro the Favourite
- Moneyline Cruzeiro 1.94 | Atletico Mineiro 4.33
- Draw 3.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The market strongly favours Cruzeiro, and the average 48% win probability reflects their home advantage and Copa do Brasil pedigree. Atletico at 4.33 with Bet365 represents some value given their unbeaten run, but their tendency to draw rather than win away from home limits the appeal. The draw at 3.20 is perhaps worth a small interest given Atletico’s defensive solidity, yet Cruzeiro’s Copa track record against this exact opponent makes backing the hosts the cleaner selection at around 1.94.
Possible Starting Lineups
Cruzeiro Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Otávio Costa
- DF: Jonathan Jesus, Fabrício Bruno, João Marcelo, William
- MF: Lucas Silva, Matheus Henrique, Gerson, Matheus Pereira
- FW: Keny Arroyo, Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro’s 4-2-3-1 sets up with Otávio Costa in goal after appearing in all 5 recent matches. Fabrício Bruno and João Marcelo form a reliable central partnership, with Jonathan Jesus and William providing width from the full-back positions. Lucas Silva and Matheus Henrique screen the defence, freeing Gerson and Matheus Pereira to operate as the more creative central options. Keny Arroyo, with 2 goals and consistent shot output, is the main wide threat, while Kaio Jorge leads the line. Matheus Pereira is the player to watch, combining 1 goal, 10 shots, and 214 passes across 5 matches to be Cruzeiro’s most complete midfielder.
Atletico Mineiro Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Everson Felipe Marques Pires
- DF: Ruan Tressoldi, Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza, Natanael Moreira Milouski, Renan Lodi
- MF: Alan Franco, Maycon de Andrade Barberan, Mamady Cisse, Reinier Jesus Carvalho
- FW: Tomás Cuello, Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte
Atletico line up in a mirroring 4-2-3-1. Everson is an automatic starter after 20 saves in 5 matches, and Ruan Tressoldi anchors the defence with 239 passes and 5 interceptions showing his composure under pressure. Alan Franco and Maycon provide the double pivot, with Reinier Jesus and Mamady Cisse supporting from wider positions. Tomás Cuello is the undisputed danger man at 4 goals in 5 matches, and Bernard adds physical presence and creativity on the other flank. Renan Lodi, with 7 shots and 1 assist, adds attacking output from left-back and could cause problems for Cruzeiro’s right side.
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Cruzeiro. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Cruzeiro are the pick for this Copa do Brasil Quarterfinal first leg. Their 56% win rate over the past 30 days, a perfect Copa record against Atletico Mineiro at this exact stage, and Tomás Cuello’s form as the single biggest individual threat are all factored in here. Atletico’s unbeaten run is built on draws more than wins, and away from home against a Copa-confident Cruzeiro side, we predict that trend to continue. Both teams should score, given the attacking quality available on both sides, but Cruzeiro’s home intensity and Keny Arroyo’s direct running should be enough to edge a 2-1 result. We predict Cruzeiro to win, both teams to score, and the match to stay under 3.5 goals.
