Criciúma vs Paysandu Pa Prediction: 28.09.2025 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

This regular season clash in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série B brings top-of-the-table Criciúma head-to-head with relegation-threatened Paysandu Pa at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma. With Criciúma riding an impressive unbeaten streak, and Paysandu Pa seeking desperately to reverse their fortunes, this encounter promises not only to shape both teams’ destinies but also to offer rich value for football betting enthusiasts. Notably, Criciúma’s ability to secure clean sheets in tightly contested fixtures has caught expert attention, while Paysandu’s set-piece threat remains their glimmer of hope.

Key players to watch include Criciúma’s versatile defender Rodrigo Fagundes, whose recent scoring exploits from defense have been crucial, and Paysandu’s tireless midfielder Thiago Heleno, whose defensive prowess and passing range provide stability for his side. Though neither team’s goalkeeper has produced headline-grabbing performances lately, these outfield engines could be decisive.

The “hot stat” entering this match: Criciúma have not conceded a goal in their last four games—an outstanding run of defensive solidity.

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Criciúma vs Paysandu Pa prediction

Given Criciúma’s peerless form (four wins and a draw in their last five) and Paysandu Pa’s lack of a win over the same stretch, the hosts are clear favorites. Criciúma demonstrate not only attacking intent but, crucially, have kept four straight clean sheets—signifying a defence that is both disciplined and well-drilled under Eduardo Baptista. Paysandu Pa, conversely, have struggled to find the net, recording only a single goal in five matches. The best value is thus clearly on a Criciúma win and a possible Asian Handicap in their favor.

Style-wise, Criciúma tend to dominate possession (averaging over 75 percent passing success) and build patiently from the back, but they can turn to quick transitions when their defensive line recovers the ball. Their recent low number of fouls and high interception count indicate efficient pressing and control. Paysandu Pa, plagued by profligacy and poor finishing (only one goal from 25 shots in 5 matches), get dragged into fouls and yellow cards—inevitable for a side often chasing the ball. Expect a contest where Criciúma dictate rhythm, force turnovers, and capitalize on defensive frailties.

Team Analysis

Criciúma Recent Games: Criciúma are currently building their promotion campaign on a foundation of steel; they haven’t conceded in four matches and have ground out three 1-0 or 2-0 wins. Their most recent 2-0 win against Coritiba was achieved through defensive patience and clinical counter-attacks, with Rodrigo Fagundes scoring and leading the backline with composure. The midfield, marshaled by Fellipe Mateus and Matheus Trindade, offers a blend of creativity and control while Nicolas Johann shows persistent threat in attack. Their attacking versatility and steady back four underpin their ascent to the league’s summit.

Paysandu Pa Recent Games: Paysandu Pa continue to tread water near the bottom, recent form showing four defeats and a draw from their last five games. Their last outing—a 0-1 home defeat to Novorizontino—encapsulated their season: plenty of effort, a handful of chances (18 shots across five matches by Maurício Garcez alone), but woeful finishing and an error-prone defense. Midfielder Thiago Heleno has tried to stem the tide, but frequent changes in the backline—including appearances by both Gabriel Mesquita and Matheus Vinícius Nogueira in goal—highlight defensive instability. Discipline issues are notable, with 12 yellows and a red across five games.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Criciúma vs Paysandu Pa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Criciúma the favourite

• Moneyline Criciúma 1.54 | Paysandu Pa 6.23
• Draw 3.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.13 | Under 2.5 1.68
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.23 | No 1.58

These odds underline the gulf in current form and firepower: Criciúma are heavy favorites (over 60 percent win probability), while Paysandu Pa’s odds reflect both their struggles in front of goal and their inconsistency away from home. Value can be found in backing the hosts, especially given Paysandu’s poor scoring record and Criciúma’s habit of eking out close, controlled wins. The low odds on “both teams to score: no” also stand to reason, with Criciúma’s defense shining and Paysandu Pa’s attack faltering.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Criciúma possible starting eleven

Criciúma’s projected 4-2-3-1 formation leverages the attacking full-backs and allows creative freedom in midfield for Jean Carlos and Fellipe Mateus. Nicolas Johann’s recent scoring uptick makes him the key forward to watch, while Rodrigo Fagundes marshals an uncompromising defense. Coach Eduardo Baptista will rely on structural discipline with flexibility to rotate between slow buildup and swift transitions, maximizing width against a leaky Paysandu back line.

Paysandu Pa possible starting eleven

Paysandu Pa are likely to opt for their recent 3-4-2-1 setup which becomes a back four in defensive phases. Maurício Garcez remains their main threat over the top, but finishing has let them down. Thiago Heleno’s leadership and experience can steady the defense; however, frequent tactical changes and a lack of offensive cohesion under Márcio Fernandes hinder their prospects. Expect a cautious, compact side aiming to strike via set-pieces or counters.

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My take on the Match

My main pick is a Criciúma win, reinforced by their excellent defensive metrics and offensive consistency at home. The form table, head-to-head superiority, and underlying data all point in the direction of a routine, professional display from Criciúma. Expect Paysandu Pa to focus on containment, but barring a dramatic upturn in finishing or fortune, the hosts’ discipline and attacking intent make them overwhelming favorites. For bettors, the -1 Asian Handicap is both secure and offers superior value, while under 2.5 goals should land in a contest shaped by defense and possession retention.

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