Criciuma vs Cuiaba Prediction: 05.09.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B

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Criciuma host Cuiaba at Estadio Heriberto Hülse in a top-half Série B clash that carries real promotion weight. Sitting third in the table with 37 points, Criciuma are locked in a tight race with Juventude and Vila Nova, while Cuiaba sit seventh on 32 points and need a result to stay in contention. What makes this fixture particularly sharp is the contrast in recent form: Cuiaba arrive unbeaten in their last five league outings, while Criciuma have won just once in that same span.

Two players stand out ahead of this fixture. Jean Dias da Costa leads Cuiaba’s attack with two goals and 14 total shots across his last five appearances, making him the most direct threat Eduardo Barros’ side carries. For Criciuma, Waguininho has been the most productive forward, registering a goal and seven free kicks in four outings, adding an aerial and set-piece dimension to Eduardo Baptista’s attack.

The hot stat from recent matches: Cuiaba have scored eight goals across their last five games compared to Criciuma’s three, a near 3:1 output ratio that reflects a significant difference in attacking efficiency heading into this match.

Criciuma vs Cuiaba Prediction

Criciuma’s home advantage and their strong season record (46% win rate across 35 matches) give them a structural edge, and the bookmakers back them at roughly 48% probability. That said, Cuiaba’s form over the last 30 days is hard to ignore: three wins and two draws from five, with zero defeats. Criciuma have lost three of their last five, including back-to-back home losses to Athletic Club and CRB. The home side’s defense has been leaky at precisely the wrong time.

Criciuma average 15 yellow cards and 68 fouls across their last five matches, making them notably aggressive in the press. Cuiaba are cleaner with eight yellows and 64 fouls, suggesting they are better equipped to exploit free-kick situations when the home side over-commits. Criciuma’s pass accuracy sits at 1,810 completed passes versus Cuiaba’s 1,548, so Criciuma control possession more, but possession has not translated to goals recently. With Cuiaba generating the same number of total shots (80) on far fewer touches, their conversion rate is more efficient.

We predict Cuiaba to score in this match. The value bet here is on Cuiaba or Draw (double chance), given their unbeaten run and Criciuma’s defensive fragility at home lately.

Team Analysis

Criciuma’s last five results show one win, three losses and one draw. Their most recent match ended in a 1-2 home defeat to CRB, a side sitting sixth in the table. Before that, they lost 0-2 to Fortaleza and 0-2 to Athletic Club. Their only win in this stretch came against Goias (1-0). The pattern is clear: Criciuma struggle to find goals and their defense has been consistently breached by mid-table sides. César Martins leads the backline with 14 interceptions in five games, providing some stability, but the team as a whole has managed only three goals in five outings.

Cuiaba’s run of form tells a very different story. Their last five results include three wins and two draws with no losses. The most recent fixture was a 2-1 win over Botafogo SP, followed by a 1-1 draw with Goias and a 1-0 win over Operario PR. Jean Dias da Costa has been central to their attack with two goals and the highest shot volume on the team. Vitor Mendes adds a goal from defense and leads with seven interceptions, giving Cuiaba a balanced threat at both ends. Their 3-4-2-1 shape mirrors Criciuma’s, which sets up a direct tactical battle in the middle third.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

The most recent head-to-head in this competition ended 0-0, though looking back across six meetings, Cuiaba hold the better record: two wins to Criciuma’s two, with two draws, and a notably dominant 5-2 win in the 2024 Série A. Criciuma won the reverse fixture earlier this season 1-0, so the rivalry is tightly balanced across the full picture.

🚨Check out our dedicated Criciuma vs Cuiaba stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Criciuma the Favourite

• Moneyline Criciuma 1.86 | Cuiaba 4.50
• Draw 3.15
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The odds peg Criciuma as clear favorites at around 1.86, which reflects their home status and overall season record. To be honest, those odds feel tight given their recent form. Cuiaba at 4.50 represents the kind of value that their current unbeaten run and attacking output justify. The draw at 3.15 is also worth noting, as four of the last six head-to-head meetings have ended level or within one goal. We lean toward backing Cuiaba or the draw rather than taking Criciuma at short odds on the back of three losses in five.

Possible Starting Lineups

Criciuma Possible Starting Eleven

Eduardo Baptista has consistently deployed a 3-4-2-1 shape, and this lineup reflects the players with the most appearances across the last five matches. Airton starts in goal with 17 saves to his name. César Martins anchors the back three with 14 interceptions. In attack, Diego Gonçalves and Waguininho carry the most direct goal threat, with Gonçalves scoring once and generating three shots in five games. Guilherme Teixeira Lobo warrants attention despite picking up three yellow cards, as he contributes six shots and 173 passes from midfield.

Cuiaba Possible Starting Eleven

Eduardo Barros also lines up in a 3-4-2-1. João Carlos has made 10 saves in five games and is the clear first-choice keeper. The defensive unit is anchored by João Basso and Vitor Mendes, who together account for 15 interceptions. Jean Dias da Costa is the standout name up front: 14 shots and two goals in five appearances make him the player Criciuma’s backline must account for. Pedro Henrique adds 13 shots of his own and has been a consistent runner in behind, making the Cuiaba front two a genuine problem for a defense that has been shaky recently.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Criciuma hold home advantage and a decent season-long record, but their last five matches paint a worrying picture: three defeats, only three goals scored, and a defense that has been undone by sides of similar quality. Cuiaba arrive in the better shape of the two, unbeaten in five with eight goals scored and a more efficient attack despite lower possession numbers. The head-to-head record is close, and the 3-4-2-1 mirror setup means the match will likely be decided by individual moments rather than tactical dominance.

We predict a Cuiaba win or a low-scoring draw as the most probable outcomes. The best value play is Cuiaba or Draw on the double chance market at around 3.15 for the draw or backing Cuiaba outright at 4.50 for the more adventurous punter. Both teams to score is also a reasonable add given that Criciuma have conceded in four of their last five and Cuiaba have scored in all five of theirs.

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