Sofia Quijada
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Colombia and Paraguay meet again just over a year after their 2-2 draw in World Cup qualifying, this time in a friendly window that carries far less weight but plenty of curiosity. Néstor Lorenzo’s side arrive off a flat 1-1 draw with Mexico, while Gustavo Alfaro’s Paraguay roll in on the back of a confident 2-0 win over Bolivia. The interesting wrinkle here is defensive fragility on both sides: Colombia shipped four goals to Switzerland two matches ago, and Paraguay conceded four to Germany in a 5-4 thriller just one game before that. Neither side looks settled defensively, which shapes most of our thinking below.
Luis Suárez scored off the bench for Colombia last time out and remains the man most likely to break a deadlock if Lorenzo needs a spark. For Paraguay, Miguel Almirón has been the standout attacking threat, netting twice in the win over Bolivia and offering genuine pace in behind. Watch how Colombia’s back line copes with his movement.
Hot stat: Miguel Almirón scored both goals in Paraguay’s last outing, a 2-0 win over Bolivia, meaning he’s been directly responsible for every Paraguay goal in their most recent match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 03.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 02:00 CEST |
Colombia vs Paraguay prediction
Colombia go in as clear favourites at 55% implied probability, and home advantage plus a deeper squad justify that tag. We lean toward backing Colombia on the moneyline, but not with full confidence in a clean sheet, perhaps the smarter route is Colombia to win combined with both teams scoring, given how porous both defenses have looked in their last two outings apiece.
Colombia’s recent numbers show a side that commits fouls at a moderate rate (18 in their last match) and picks up occasional cards without being reckless, two yellows in the same game. Paraguay play with a touch more physicality, three yellow cards and nine shots in their last outing, suggesting Alfaro’s men are happy to press higher and take more risks going forward. That attacking intent, paired with Colombia’s leaky backline against Switzerland, points toward goals at both ends rather than a cagey script.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Colombia to Win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Colombia’s form over the last five games reads two wins, two draws and one loss, a mixed stretch that ended with the 1-1 stalemate against Mexico. Across the full year they sit at 50% winrate from 10 matches, respectable but unspectacular. The 3-4 defeat to Switzerland two games back remains the glaring red flag, showing a backline that can be opened up by quick combination play, something Paraguay’s front line is capable of exploiting.
Paraguay arrive in noticeably better shape, winning three, drawing one and losing one of their last five, capped by that 2-0 win over Bolivia where Almirón did all the damage. Their year-long numbers back this up, 56% winrate from nine matches, marginally ahead of Colombia’s output. The 5-4 win over Germany two matches prior shows Alfaro’s side can trade goals with anyone, which lines up with our expectation of an open scoreline here.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Colombia | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Colombia vs Paraguay stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Colombia the favourite
- Moneyline Colombia 1.70 | Paraguay 4.93
- Draw 3.55
Pinnacle’s line gives Colombia roughly 59% implied strength once margin is stripped out, with the draw sitting near 28% and Paraguay trailing at 20%. That gap looks fair given home comfort and Colombia’s slightly longer unbeaten stretch across the year, though the odds on Paraguay look a little generous considering how sharp their attack has been in recent weeks. We’d rather stake on goals markets than the outright price at these numbers.
Possible Starting Lineups
Colombia possible starting eleven
- GK: Álvaro Montero
- DF: Daniel Muñoz, Davinson Sánchez, Jhon Lucumi, Álvaro Angulo
- MF: Gustavo Puerta, Kevin Castaño, Richard Ríos
- FW: Jhon Arias, Luis Suárez, Andrés Gómez
Lorenzo tends to stick with his 4-3-3 and the data backs the regulars who log 90 minutes most often. Suárez’s goal threat off the bench makes a case for a starting role this time, and Arias remains the creative outlet on the right. Ríos offers the engine in midfield that Colombia needs against a Paraguay side that likes to press.
Paraguay possible starting eleven
- GK: Gastón Olveira
- DF: Juan Caceres, Alexandro Maidana, Gustavo Gómez, José Canale
- MF: Julio Enciso, Diego Gomez, Mauricio Magalhães Prado
- FW: Miguel Almirón, Ramon Sosa, Alex Arce
Alfaro’s 4-3-3 mirrors Colombia’s setup and gives Almirón freedom to drift centrally after his double against Bolivia. Enciso’s creativity from midfield, backed by an assist in the same match, should feed the front three directly, and Caceres playing a full 90 minutes last time out confirms his spot at right back.
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Colombia. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Colombia edge this one at home, but not without conceding at least once. Both sides have shown recently that their defenses crack under sustained pressure, Colombia against Switzerland, Paraguay against Germany, and that pattern should repeat here. To be honest, the safer value lies in goals rather than the result itself: Colombia to win with both teams scoring and the total creeping past 2.5 covers the most likely version of this match.
