Sofia Quijada
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Chivas Guadalajara sit second in the Apertura table and welcome a Queretaro side that has quietly put together one of the better recent runs in the league. Chivas have lost just once in nine league games this campaign, while Queretaro arrive unbeaten in their last three, a stretch that included a draw against high-flying Club Leon. The interesting angle here is discipline: Queretaro have picked up almost three times as many yellow cards as Chivas over their last five matches despite committing a near-identical number of fouls, a sign the visitors play on the edge without necessarily fouling more often.
Watch Ricardo Marín up front for Chivas, he has scored twice and set up another in his last four appearances and leads the home attack in output. For Queretaro, Santiago Homenchenko has been their most productive midfielder with two goals and an assist, and his set-piece delivery has been a genuine weapon.
Hot stat: Chivas have completed more than double the passes of Queretaro over their last five matches, 2,228 against 998, yet Queretaro still managed nearly as many shots, 39 to 37. Volume of possession clearly hasn’t translated into a proportional shot advantage for the hosts, which matters for how open we expect this game to play.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Akron, Guadalajara |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:07 CEST |
Chivas Guadalajara vs Queretaro prediction
We predict Chivas Guadalajara win this one at home, though perhaps not by a wide margin. Their home form has been the backbone of a nine-game unbeaten league run, and Queretaro’s away record, while respectable, has leaned heavily on tight, low-event games rather than statement wins on the road. The value, in our view, sits with backing Chivas combined with goals at both ends rather than a heavy-margin outright bet.
Chivas control the ball far more, their pass accuracy and volume dwarf Queretaro’s numbers from the last five games, yet Queretaro’s discipline problems, 11 yellow cards against Chivas’ 4 in that same stretch, could hand the hosts set-piece opportunities in wide areas. Fouls are close (42 to 43), so this shouldn’t be a stop-start match, but Queretaro’s card count suggests referees have been quick to caution their challenges, which plays into Chivas’ favour given their set-piece routines produced 51 free kicks in five matches.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Chivas Guadalajara win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Chivas drew 2-2 with Club America in their most recent outing, a game where they twice let a lead slip against a rival with a shaky defensive record. That draw followed three straight wins over Pumas, Atletico San Luis and Pachuca combined with a comfortable 5-2 win over Tijuana, so the underlying form remains strong even if the last result papered over some late defensive lapses. In our preview of Club America vs Chivas Guadalajara we called an away win for Chivas built on their defensive solidity, and the 2-2 result went against us since America pulled level twice, though the game did produce the goals and BTTS outcome we also flagged.
Queretaro drew 1-1 with Club Leon last time out, a result that fits their pattern this season of grinding out points rather than blowing teams away. Before that they beat Tijuana 1-0 and Atlas 3-1, and they haven’t lost since a narrow defeat to Toluca back in August. In our preview of Queretaro vs Club Leon we backed a narrow home edge for Queretaro built on their defensive numbers, and the 1-1 scoreline went against that outright pick, though it landed on the BTTS side of our call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chivas Guadalajara | Queretaro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 5 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chivas Guadalajara vs Queretaro stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Chivas Guadalajara the favourite
- Moneyline Chivas Guadalajara 1.38 | Queretaro 6.13
- Draw 4.58
Bookmakers price Chivas as heavy home favourites, matching the roughly 65% implied win chance from our data provider. The gap between the moneyline prices for the two sides, 1.38 against 6.13, tells us markets aren’t giving Queretaro much credit despite their solid away form, which we think slightly undervalues the visitors’ recent defensive discipline even against a strong Chivas attack.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chivas Guadalajara possible starting eleven
- GK: Raúl Rangel
- DF: Diego Campillo, Richard Ledezma, Luis Rey, Bryan Gonzalez
- MF: Luis Romo, Omar Govea, Roberto Alvarado, Fernando González, Santiago Sandoval
- FW: Ricardo Marín
Milito tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and the double pivot of Romo and Govea gives Marín protection to press higher. Sandoval and Alvarado both carry goal threat from midfield, and Marín’s recent scoring form makes him the player defenders need to track closest.
Queretaro possible starting eleven
- GK: Guillermo Allison
- DF: Diego Reyes, Daniel Parra, Lucas Abascia
- MF: Carlo Garcia, Santiago Homenchenko, Enzo Giménez, Erik Duenas, Mateo Coronel, Iker Benito Sánchez
- FW: Ali Ávila
González’s 3-4-2-1 relies on Garcia’s interception numbers, 14 in his last three games, to shield the back three, while Coronel and Iker Benito Sánchez rotate behind Ávila as the direct attacking outlets. Homenchenko’s set-piece quality gives Queretaro a route to goals even without controlling possession.
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Queretaro. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Chivas’ home form, unbeaten record and superior possession numbers make them the clear side to trust, though we expect Queretaro to find the net given their recent scoring spread across Coronel, Homenchenko and Iker Benito Sánchez. To be honest, a 2-1 or 2-2 finish looks the most realistic script based on how open both defenses have been in recent weeks. We predict a Chivas win with goals at both ends, backed by the corner count given Chivas’ 21 corners won across their last five home-style displays against Queretaro’s 14.
