Liam Duckstein
Charleroi welcomes Leuven to Stade du Pays de Charleroi for a Pro League Conference League face-off that holds weight for both sides, but in very different ways. Charleroi still has a glimmer of hope for European football, sitting 3rd and just a point off Genk. Leuven are rooted to the bottom of the group, pride and contract futures on the line for many players. This fixture has seen both tactical chess matches and shock results in the past. The last meeting was all Charleroi—a clinical 2-0 away win.
Keep an eye on Charleroi’s versatile forward Antoine Bernier, who has been both creator and finisher, and Leuven’s Henok Teklab, a wide attacker with a knack for forcing defensive errors and drawing fouls. Neither side’s goalkeeper has been particularly standout in the last five matches, so mistakes or heroics could shape the result.
Hot stat: Charleroi are averaging over 13 total shots per game in their last five, while Leuven’s passing accuracy has quietly improved to above 82%—an uptick despite poor results.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Pro League 2025/26 Conference League (Belgium) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi |
| 🗓️ Date: | 19.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Charleroi vs Leuven prediction
We predict Charleroi to win this match. The home side has been more consistent, both in their results and underlying stats—50% win rate in their last six, plus a solid defensive record in recent home games. Leuven struggle away, with just one win in their last six and a goal difference of -6 in the Conference League group. Charleroi’s 3-4-3 system allows them to flood the midfield, making transitions quick and giving creative players space. Leuven’s 4-2-3-1 often leaves their back line isolated, especially when chasing the game.
Both teams have shown a willingness to contest aggressively—yellow cards are high for both, with Leuven’s 11 to Charleroi’s 9 in their last five. Fouls are frequent, and we expect the referee to get busy early. Charleroi are more disciplined in their pressing and win more interceptions, while Leuven’s higher foul and card counts hint at some desperation. Ball possession is fairly balanced, but Charleroi’s more direct play may create more final third entries and set pieces, increasing the likelihood of corners and shots on target.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Charleroi to win & Over 8.5 corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Charleroi’s last match saw them fall 0-1 to Westerlo, an encounter where their attacking intent failed to translate into goals. Their previous games, though, included strong wins over Antwerp (1-0) and Genk (2-0), proving they can contain stronger opposition while taking their chances. Defensively, they are rarely overrun; their three-man defense and disciplined midfield shield have kept games tight, with only seven goals conceded in the group phase. Look for Kevin Van Den Kerkhof to influence play from wingback, both defensively and in attack.
Leuven, meanwhile, come off a surprising 3-0 win over Antwerp, a result that snapped a losing run and may provide a mental lift. Their campaign overall has been rocky: five losses in eight group matches, and their defensive lapses have cost them. In the last five, they’ve conceded at least twice in three matches, but their recent improvement in passing and shot creation is worth noting. Teklab and Abdoul Karim Traoré bring attacking spark, but support has been inconsistent from midfield.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Charleroi | Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 7 |
| Total shots | 67 | 53 |
| Free kicks | 0 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 27 | 27 |
| Total fouls | 66 | 68 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82 | 82 |
| Interceptions | 45 | 50 |
| Offsides | 7 | 14 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Charleroi vs Leuven stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Charleroi the favourite
- Moneyline Charleroi 1.70 | Leuven 4.30
- Draw 3.90
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.70
Bookmakers make Charleroi clear favourites, and we agree—home form and defensive strength give them an edge. The draw odds are on the higher side, showing faith in Charleroi’s ability to finish the job. Over 2.5 goals offers good value if Leuven are forced to chase, but our punters see under 2.5 as more likely, given both teams’ recent scoring rates. Both teams to score? We say no: Charleroi’s defense should hold, and Leuven’s attack is inconsistent away from home.
Leuven. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Charleroi possible starting eleven
- GK: Mohamed Koné
- DF: Mardochée Nzita, Cheick Keita, Aiham Ousou
- MF: Kevin Van Den Kerkhof, Etiene Camara, Yassine Khalifi, Lewin Blum
- FW: Antoine Bernier, Aurelien Scheidler, Parfait Guiagon
The lineup reflects coach Kohnen’s consistent back three and reliance on wingbacks for width. Van Den Kerkhof is the engine on the right, racking up assists and shots. In attack, Bernier and Scheidler are the main threats. The 3-4-3 allows plenty of flexibility—expect Guiagon to roam between lines and test Leuven’s fullbacks.
Leuven possible starting eleven
- GK: Tobe Leysen
- DF: Ewoud Pletinckx, Takahiro Akimoto, Roggerio Nyakossi, Oscar Gil Regaño
- MF: Siebe Schrijvers, Lukasz Lakomy, Youssef Maziz, Mathieu Maertens
- FW: Henok Teklab, Kyan Vaesen
Coach Mazzù is likely to stick with his 4-2-3-1, hoping the midfield can link to Teklab and Vaesen. Schrijvers and Maertens will need to control possession and transition quickly. The back four has looked shaky, but Pletinckx and Nyakossi have the most minutes and experience. Teklab is the clear danger man, both for his direct runs and ability to win fouls in advanced areas.
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Charleroi. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Charleroi to win in a controlled match, probably keeping a clean sheet. Leuven may create some chances, but their away form and lack of cutting edge will limit them. Charleroi’s midfield press, combined with quick wing play, is set to overwhelm Leuven’s shape. Expect a low-scoring but one-sided affair, with Charleroi edging the xG and shot counts.
