Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo Prediction: 24 August 2026 Brasileirão Série A

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Chapecoense host Sao Paulo at Arena Condá on Monday night in a Brasileirão Série A fixture that carries very different stakes for each side. The hosts sit bottom of the table with just 11 points from 22 games, while Sao Paulo occupy 13th place and are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone. The reverse fixture earlier this season ended 2-0 to Sao Paulo, and the visitors will be confident of repeating that result. What makes this match interesting is that Chapecoense’s last five games included a 3-3 draw against Bahia, suggesting they can score but remain defensively fragile.

Two players to watch closely: Giovanni Augusto has been Chapecoense’s most creative outlet, registering 3 assists and 1 goal across the last five matches from midfield. For Sao Paulo, Jonathan Calleri leads the line with 2 goals in 5 appearances and has generated the most shots among his teammates, making him the primary attacking threat.

Hot stat: Sao Paulo have committed 81 fouls across their last five matches, averaging over 16 per game. That level of physical aggression can disrupt Chapecoense’s rhythm but also invites set-piece danger and card accumulation.

Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Sao Paulo are the clear pick to win this match. They are the stronger side on paper, they won the reverse fixture 2-0, and Chapecoense have not won a single game in their last seven. The visitors’ bookmaker probability of 46% reflects a side that, despite some inconsistency, is far better equipped than a team rooted to the bottom of the table.

Chapecoense’s defensive record is alarming: they have conceded 46 goals in 22 league games, the worst in the division. Sao Paulo have scored in four of their last five matches and carry enough attacking variety through Calleri, Luciano, and Pablo Maia to find the net here. We predict a Sao Paulo win, and the odds around 2.00-2.08 across most bookmakers represent fair value for a side that should be dominating this fixture.

Chapecoense average 12.6 fouls per game over their last five, while Sao Paulo average 16.2. Both teams foul frequently, which should generate a high free-kick count and slow the pace of play in midfield. Sao Paulo’s pass accuracy is notably higher (1821 accurate passes versus Chapecoense’s 1433), and they create significantly more shots (65 vs 44). That dominance in possession and shot volume points toward a comfortable Sao Paulo performance. Chapecoense have shown they can score, as the Bahia draw demonstrated, so a clean sheet for the visitors is not guaranteed, but the scoreline should favour Sao Paulo clearly.

Team Analysis

Chapecoense have gone seven matches without a win, recording four losses and three draws in that run. Their most recent game was a 3-3 home draw against Bahia, a result that encapsulates their season: capable of scoring, incapable of keeping a clean sheet. Before that, they lost 1-2 to Coritiba and 0-2 to Cruzeiro, with a goalless draw against Cruzeiro sandwiched in between. The 2-2 draw with Santos earlier in the run is the only other points return. Camilo Reijers de Oliveira has been busy defensively with 8 interceptions in 5 games, but his 3 yellow cards show the defensive pressure the team operates under. Anderson Silva da Paixão, who has started four of the five games in goal, has made 15 saves, which underlines how frequently Chapecoense are being tested.

Sao Paulo’s recent form is mixed but shows more quality than their opponents. They beat Bolivar 3-1 in their most recent outing, a confidence-boosting result after a 1-1 draw at Coritiba. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 with Bolivar, lost 1-2 to Gremio, and drew 1-1 with Flamengo. One win from five in domestic play is modest, but the Bolivar result showed they can score freely when the opposition allows space. Rafael in goal has made 12 saves across the five games, meaning Sao Paulo’s defence has also been tested, which supports the case for both teams to score. Lucas Ramon’s 10 fouls in 5 games from the back line and his 2 yellow cards are a minor concern regarding discipline.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Sao Paulo the Favourite

• Moneyline Chapecoense 3.80 | Sao Paulo 2.08
• Draw 3.44
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

Pinnacle’s 3.80 on Chapecoense and 2.08 on Sao Paulo align well with the bookmaker average of 26% vs 46%. The draw at 3.44 is priced fairly given both sides’ recent inability to produce dominant performances. Sao Paulo at around 2.00-2.08 is the most actionable line: the range is consistent across the market, which suggests sharp money has settled here. There is no standout value on the draw, and backing Chapecoense at any price given their current form and defensive record is difficult to justify.

Possible Starting Lineups

Chapecoense Possible Starting Eleven

Rafael Lacerda is likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, consistent with the last five matches. Anderson Silva da Paixão holds the goalkeeper spot having started four of those games. Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski and Rafael Thyere are the most reliable defensive options by appearances. Giovanni Augusto is the key man in the number ten role: his 3 assists and 1 goal make him Chapecoense’s most productive player, and he will need to link play effectively if the hosts are to threaten. Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior leads the attack with 2 goals from 5 games.

Sao Paulo Possible Starting Eleven

Dorival Júnior should deploy the familiar 4-2-3-1, with Rafael a certain starter in goal. Pablo Maia and Marcos Antonio provide the double pivot, with Maia’s 1 goal and 9 shots in 5 games showing he contributes beyond just defensive duties. Calleri leads the line and is the main goal threat with 2 goals in 5 appearances. Luciano, despite 8 fouls conceded against him, remains active with 16 shots in 5 games, the highest among Sao Paulo forwards. Robert Arboleda’s goal contribution from the back adds another dimension to set pieces.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Sao Paulo should win this match. Chapecoense are the worst defensive side in the Série A this season, having conceded 46 goals in 22 games, and they have not won in seven. Sao Paulo carry enough quality through Calleri, Luciano, and Pablo Maia to exploit those defensive gaps, and the 3-1 win over Bolivar showed they can score freely when confidence is up. The reverse fixture ended 2-0 to Sao Paulo, and we see no reason for a different outcome here.

We predict a Sao Paulo win, with both teams to score given Chapecoense’s recent 3-3 against Bahia and Sao Paulo’s own defensive exposure. Over 2.5 goals is the natural companion to that call. The corner market also looks interesting: Sao Paulo averaged 4.6 corners per game across the last five, and Chapecoense will be forced to defend deep, inviting sustained pressure and wide deliveries throughout the 90 minutes.

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