Rafael Nogueira
Chapecoense and Novorizontino meet in the Copa Sul-Sudeste semifinals at Arena Condá, with both sides seeking a place in the final. Chapecoense’s home advantage and recent head-to-head dominance create a compelling narrative. The last encounter ended 2-0 for Chapecoense, a result that reflects their sharper edge in this fixture. João Paulo anchors Chapecoense’s defense, while Robson provides Novorizontino’s main attacking spark. For midfield influence, Rafael Carvalheira’s energy stands out, capable of dictating tempo and breaking up Novorizontino’s rhythm.
Hot stat: Chapecoense have registered 48 total shots across their last five games, outpacing Novorizontino’s 41. This attacking intent, paired with defensive discipline, has shaped their recent results.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026 Semifinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Condá, Chapeco |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Chapecoense vs Novorizontino prediction
We predict Chapecoense to win. The team’s structured 4-2-3-1 system under Fábio Matias has produced balance between attack and defense, especially at home. Novorizontino struggle away from home and have only managed 38% win rate in their last eight matches. Chapecoense’s aggressive pressing and ability to generate shots from wide areas, alongside robust defensive work—38 interceptions in their last five—will likely keep Novorizontino’s chances to a minimum.
Chapecoense’s style: disciplined, high-tempo, not afraid to commit numbers forward. They average over 11 fouls per match, with 15 yellows in the last five, showing physicality in midfield. Novorizontino lack defensive bite, reflected in only 14 interceptions over the same period. This mismatch in intensity and defensive organization could be telling. Expect Chapecoense to dominate possession, force turnovers, and exploit Novorizontino’s defensive lapses.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Chapecoense to win & Under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Chapecoense’s recent matches show a side resilient but not immune to lapses. Their last game was a 1-2 home defeat to Cruzeiro, where defensive gaps were exploited by a high-caliber opponent. Before that, they beat Novorizontino 2-0, showing superior efficiency and control in midfield transitions. They concede goals under pressure but maintain attacking output regardless of the opposition.
Novorizontino, under Enderson Moreira, have mixed results. They defeated Ceara 2-1, holding composure late in the match, but fell 0-2 to Chapecoense, struggling to break lines or create clear opportunities. Their defensive approach relies heavily on set pieces and direct play, which is less effective against organized, pressing teams.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chapecoense | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
| Total shots | 12 | 6 |
| Free kicks | 14 | 8 |
| Corner kicks | 5 | 7 |
| Total fouls | 13 | 11 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82 | 76 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 5 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.
Bookmakers favor Chapecoense, likely due to home strength and head-to-head superiority. Novorizontino’s away inconsistency and lower conversion rate reduce their implied probability. Draws remain possible given both teams’ recent conservative play in knockout games, but Chapecoense’s physical dominance and midfield control swing the odds in their favor.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chapecoense possible starting eleven
- GK: Anderson Silva da Paixão
- DF: João Paulo, Bruno Pacheco, Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, Everton Souza da Cruz
- MF: Rafael Carvalheira, Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Bruno Leonardo, Jean Carlos
- FW: Neto Pessoa, Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior
Anderson Silva da Paixão starts in goal, offering reliability. João Paulo and Bruno Pacheco provide experience and width in defense, while Rafael Carvalheira and Camilo dictate play from midfield. Neto Pessoa, supported by Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior, leads the attack. The 4-2-3-1 maximizes both defensive solidity and transition play, with Carvalheira and João Paulo the main players to watch.
Novorizontino possible starting eleven
- GK: César
- DF: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Carlinhos, Nilson Castrillón, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
- MF: Juninho, Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Leonardo Naldi de Matos
- FW: Robson, Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito, Ronald Barcellos Arantes
César provides stability as goalkeeper. The defense is anchored by Patrick and Carlinhos, with Nilson and Maykon providing cover. Juninho and Bianqui hold the midfield, with Robson as the focal point of attack. This 4-2-3-1 aims for compactness, but lacks creative depth, making Robson the player most likely to influence Novorizontino’s fortunes.
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Chapecoense. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Chapecoense to win with a low-scoring outcome. Their superior shot creation, pressing intensity, and structured defense give them an edge, especially at home. Novorizontino may struggle to break through, with Robson their only consistent threat. Expect Chapecoense to control the match tempo, limit clear chances, and edge this semifinal.
