Chapecoense vs Flamengo RJ Prediction: 23.07.2026 Brasileirão Preview

Flamengo RJ arrive at Arena Condá in Chapecó as the clear favourites and second-placed side in the Brasileirão, carrying momentum from a 4-2 win over Olimpia Asuncion and a 2-1 victory against Benfica in their most recent outings. Chapecoense sit bottom of the table with just 9 points from 18 games, and their attacking output has been dire, scoring zero goals in the last recorded match.

One player to watch is Flamengo’s Samuel Lino, who registered both a goal and an assist in the last match and leads the recent attacking returns among the squad. For Chapecoense, Yannick Bolasie remains their most direct threat, generating 3 shots and 10 lost balls in his last appearance, suggesting he takes risks in forward areas but needs better support around him.

Hot stat: Flamengo outpassed Chapecoense by a margin of 473 to 264 in their respective last matches, with Flamengo’s pass accuracy reaching 409 completed passes compared to Chapecoense’s 221 — a dominance in possession that signals a likely one-sided contest at Arena Condá.

Chapecoense vs Flamengo RJ Prediction

Flamengo are second in the Brasileirão with 34 points from 17 games, scoring 31 goals in the process. Chapecoense have the worst defensive record in the division, conceding 35 goals in 18 matches. The gap in quality is stark, and Leonardo Jardim’s side have won 3 of their last 4 games across all competitions. We predict a comfortable Flamengo away win, and the Asian handicap market of Flamengo -1.5 offers solid value given Chapecoense’s inability to score, let alone keep games close.

Flamengo commit a moderate 16 fouls per match and carry just 1 yellow card in their last outing, suggesting disciplined play that keeps them in games without disruption. Chapecoense foul more frequently at 17 per match and have been disorganised defensively, conceding from open play regularly. With Flamengo’s superior ball circulation and Chapecoense’s low press efficiency, expect Flamengo to control tempo and create multiple scoring chances. The total goals market leans over, given Flamengo’s firepower and Chapecoense’s leaky backline.

Team Analysis

Chapecoense have had a difficult season under Rafael Lacerda, collecting only 9 points in 18 league matches and sitting 11 points adrift of safety. Their last five matches paint a mixed picture: a 2-1 win over Gremio stands out, but they were beaten 0-2 by Bahia and suffered a 0-3 loss to Avai. The 7-5 win over Avai is an anomaly that masks a fragile defensive structure rather than reflecting genuine progress. In their most recent match, they failed to register a single goal against Bahia, managing just 10 total shots and 6 corners. The squad lacks depth, and several players in the last lineup logged under 30 minutes, pointing to rotation issues or fitness concerns.

Flamengo RJ have been in strong form across competitions. A 4-2 win over Olimpia Asuncion in their last match, followed by a 2-1 win over Benfica and a 2-0 win over Lausanne, shows they are capable of performing at a high level against varied opposition. Their only blemish recently was a 2-2 draw with River Plate, a respectable result against a top South American side. In the league, they beat Coritiba 3-0 in their last Brasileirão fixture. With 31 goals in 17 league games, their attack is among the most productive in the division. Jorginho recorded an assist in the last match, and Bruno Henrique and Samuel Lino both found the net, underlining the squad’s attacking depth.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Flamengo RJ stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Flamengo RJ the favourite

• Moneyline Chapecoense 7.18 | Flamengo RJ 1.44
• Draw 4.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —

The market firmly backs Flamengo, with odds as short as 1.44 at some bookmakers. Pinnacle’s 7.18 on Chapecoense reflects the true gap between these sides. The draw at 4.40 carries no real value given Chapecoense’s inability to keep clean sheets and Flamengo’s attacking form. The best odds on Flamengo sit at 1.48 with Bovada and bet365, which is reasonable for a side that has won 10 of 17 league games and scored 31 goals. We see no reason to back the hosts at any price.

Possible Starting Lineups

Rafael Lacerda is likely to deploy his familiar 4-3-3 shape. Matheus Aurélio Palhares Guimarães starts in goal after logging 90 minutes recently. Bruno Pacheco and Rafael Thyere anchor the defensive line with the most playing time among defenders. In midfield, Giovanni Augusto provides the most passing volume. Yannick Bolasie leads the line as the most direct attacking option, and his ability to take on defenders will be Chapecoense’s primary outlet against a well-organised Flamengo backline.

Leonardo Jardim will likely field a 4-2-3-1 or a narrow 4-3-3. Agustín Rossi starts in goal with 69 minutes in the last outing. The back four selects itself, with Vitão and João Souza as the central pairing and Ayrton Lucas providing width from left back. Jorginho anchors midfield and contributed an assist in the last match, showing his continued influence. Samuel Lino, who scored and assisted in the most recent game, is the standout attacking threat, operating from the left. Pedro leads the line as centre forward.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Flamengo RJ are the standout pick here. Chapecoense are the worst team in the Brasileirão by points and by goal difference, conceding 35 in 18 games. Flamengo’s recent form across club and cup competitions is strong, and their passing and shooting numbers dwarf those of the hosts. We predict Flamengo to win by at least two goals, making the -1.5 Asian handicap the best value play. To be honest, the only scenario where this gets close is if Flamengo rotate heavily, but even then their squad depth should be enough. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS No round out a sensible betting approach for this match.

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