Chapecoense vs Bahia Prediction: 16 August 2026 Brasileirão Série A

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Chapecoense sit rock-bottom of the Série A table with just 10 points from 21 matches, and they host a Bahia side that already beat them 2-0 earlier in this same campaign. Rafael Lacerda’s team has gone winless in their last six league games, while Rogério Ceni’s Bahia occupy fifth place and are pushing for a top-four finish. The first meeting between these sides this season ended with Bahia winning comfortably, making this a tricky proposition for the hosts at Arena Condá.

Two players to track closely: Rodrigo Nestor has been Bahia’s most productive midfielder over the last five matches, contributing one goal and two assists while leading the team in both shots and interceptions in midfield. For Chapecoense, Giovanni Augusto is the most active creative outlet, registering the most passes and shots from midfield and providing one assist across the last five games.

Hot stat: Chapecoense have conceded 43 goals in 21 Série A matches this season, the worst defensive record in the entire division by a considerable margin. Their last five games produced only 3 goals scored against 10 conceded.

Chapecoense vs Bahia Prediction

Bahia are the clear pick here. They arrive with superior quality, a winning record against Chapecoense this season, and a defensive structure that has kept four clean sheets across their last five league matches. Chapecoense have not won in six games and carry the division’s worst goal difference at -23. The value sits firmly with the away side.

Chapecoense have committed 73 fouls across their last five matches, the highest total in this fixture sample, and they have picked up 10 yellow cards, which is more than Bahia’s eight. This suggests Chapecoense defend with aggression and desperation, which could open spaces for Bahia on the counter. Bahia hold a 1,876 pass accuracy figure against Chapecoense’s 1,750, and their 71 total shots to Chapecoense’s 55 confirm the control they tend to exert. With Chapecoense also carrying a red card in their last five games, discipline is a genuine concern for the hosts.

• Main prediction: Bahia to win
• Value pick: Bahia to win to nil

Team Analysis

Chapecoense have collected zero wins from their last six league fixtures, dropping four and drawing two. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 home defeat to Coritiba, a result that continued a run where they have conceded in five consecutive matches. The prior game saw them lose 0-2 to Cruzeiro, and before that a 0-0 draw with the same opponent offered brief defensive stability. A 2-2 draw with Santos and a heavy 0-4 loss to Flamengo complete the picture of a team struggling to find any consistency. Their goal tally of just 3 across five games, combined with 10 yellow cards and a red card, points to a squad under serious pressure.

Bahia have not lost in their last five league matches, with four draws and one win recorded. Their most recent outing was a goalless draw at home to Vasco, which kept their unbeaten run intact. Before that, they drew 0-0 with Fluminense, 1-1 with Corinthians, and 1-1 with Atletico Mineiro. The one win in that stretch came directly against Chapecoense, a 2-0 away victory. While the draw count is high, Bahia have been defensively disciplined, conceding just once across four of those five matches. Ronaldo in goal has made 19 saves over five games, showing how Bahia’s backline and keeper have functioned as a unit.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Bahia stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Bahia the Favourite

• Moneyline Chapecoense 3.70 | Bahia 1.96
• Draw 3.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The bookmakers’ average gives Bahia a 46% win probability against Chapecoense’s 27%, and the outright odds reflect that gap clearly. Bahia at around 2.00 represents fair value given their form, their head-to-head record this season, and the state of Chapecoense’s campaign. The draw at 3.40 is not worth chasing given how little Chapecoense have offered offensively. We predict Bahia win is the sharpest play at these prices.

Possible Starting Lineups

Chapecoense Possible Starting Eleven

Chapecoense are likely to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape under Rafael Lacerda. Matheus Aurelio starts in goal after the most appearances among the three goalkeepers listed. Camilo Reijers de Oliveira anchors the midfield double pivot and has the most interceptions of any Chapecoense outfield player across the last five matches. Giovanni Augusto operates behind the striker and is the team’s primary creative threat. Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior leads the line as the only forward with a goal in this period.

Bahia Possible Starting Eleven

Rogério Ceni deploys a 4-2-3-1, with Ronaldo as the undisputed first-choice goalkeeper after five consecutive appearances. Román Gómez has been a threat from the right side of defence, contributing one goal and nine shots across five games. Rodrigo Nestor is the most dangerous midfielder with three goal contributions and 13 shots. Ademir provides energy and end product up front with one goal and a high shot volume. Nicolas Acevedo controls the tempo with 332 passes and six interceptions over five matches.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Chapecoense are the worst team in the Série A this season by points and by goal difference. They have not won in six games, they concede freely, and they already lost to Bahia 2-0 in the reverse fixture. Bahia arrive in fifth place, unbeaten in five, and with a well-organized defensive structure that has limited opponents to very few goals in recent weeks. The head-to-head from earlier this season showed Bahia were comfortable winners, and there is little evidence that Chapecoense have improved enough to change that dynamic at home.

We predict a Bahia win, most likely by a single goal margin given their recent tendency to grind out controlled results. The “Bahia to win to nil” market carries strong appeal given Chapecoense’s attacking output of just 3 goals across five games. Under 2.5 total goals also aligns with Bahia’s disciplined defensive approach and Chapecoense’s inability to score consistently.

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