Rafael Nogueira
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Chapecoense sit dead last in Série A with just 18 points from 28 games, and the numbers behind that record look worse than the table itself suggests, a league-worst minus 28 goal difference. Athletico PR arrive in fourth, chasing a top-three finish, and they have already beaten this opponent once this season in the reverse fixture. Chapeco has rarely been a happy hunting ground for the hosts lately, and the visitors’ recent draw with Atletico Mineiro keeps their momentum steady rather than explosive.
Watch Maurício Garcez up front for Chapecoense, the lone forward who has actually found the net in the last five matches and fired nine shots doing it, a rare source of threat in an otherwise blunt attack. For Athletico PR, Kevin Viveros deserves attention, two goals in just two appearances signal he is trusted to start and finish chances when given the minutes.
Hot stat: Chapecoense have scored only 2 goals across their last five matches combined, while Athletico PR have netted 7 in the same span, a gap that mirrors the gulf between 20th and 4th in the standings.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Condá, Chapeco |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Chapecoense vs Athletico PR prediction
We predict Athletico PR to win this one, and comfortably so. Chapecoense have not won a single game in their last 30 days, drawing twice and losing twice, and their home form offers little resistance against sides that actually create chances. Athletico PR average over eleven shots per match across their recent run and have scored seven goals in five games, more than enough firepower to break down a Chapecoense defense that has shipped 57 goals this season.
Chapecoense commit more fouls on paper, 47 across five matches against Athletico PR’s 44, yet their pass accuracy sits lower too, 1129 completed out of a higher attempt volume still trails Athletico PR’s cleaner 942 from fewer attempts, pointing to a team that struggles to retain possession under pressure. Athletico PR’s extra corner output, 19 against 12, backs up a side that spends more time camped in the final third, which should translate into set-piece chances and sustained pressure on the Chapecoense box throughout the ninety minutes.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletico PR to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Chapecoense’s last outing ended 0-4 at Vitoria, a result that exposed every defensive weakness the squad carries into this fixture. Before that they drew 1-1 with Atletico Mineiro and 1-1 with Atletico Nacional, lost 1-2 to Internacional, and beat Corinthians 2-1, a run that nets out to one win in five with goals drying up badly in the most recent match. In our preview of Vitoria vs Chapecoense we called a narrow Vitoria win under 2.5 goals, and the 0-4 scoreline confirmed Vitoria’s victory but blew past our goals total, so the combined angle went against us.
Athletico PR drew 2-2 with Atletico Mineiro most recently, continuing a pattern of games with goals at both ends, following a 2-1 win over Bahia, a wild 3-3 with Coritiba, a 1-3 loss to Cruzeiro, and a 3-3 draw with Fluminense. That is four goals or more in four of their last five matches, a trend that favors backing goals again here. In our preview of Athletico PR vs Atletico Mineiro we leaned on Mineiro avoiding defeat alongside over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes, and the 2-2 final score delivered on both the goals markets while Mineiro held their draw no bet safely.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Chapecoense | Athletico PR |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 3 meetings) | 3 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Chapecoense vs Athletico PR stats page for more info.
Chapecoense. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletico PR the favourite
- Moneyline Chapecoense 3.34 | Athletico PR 1.86
- Draw 3.47
The market leans heavily toward Athletico PR, and rightly so given the standings gap and the recent scoring trends on both sides. Odds around 1.86 for the away win look fair rather than generous, Chapecoense’s home form simply does not support backing an upset here, and the draw price at 3.47 only makes sense if Chapecoense find a defensive solution they have not shown in weeks.
Possible Starting Lineups
Chapecoense possible starting eleven
- GK: Anderson Silva da Paixão
- DF: Eduardo Vinicius Domachowski, Kauan Faria, Bruno Pacheco, Rafael Thyere
- MF: Camilo Reijers de Oliveira, Yago Felipe, Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior, Miguel Carvalho Vianna, Bruno Matias
- FW: Maurício Garcez
Rafael Lacerda sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in recent matches, leaning on Camilo Reijers de Oliveira and Yago Felipe to shield the back four. Maurício Garcez carries the entire attacking burden up top, and how much service he gets from Marcio Antonio de Sousa Junior and Miguel Carvalho Vianna wide will decide whether Chapecoense threaten at all.
Athletico PR possible starting eleven
- GK: Mycael Pontes Moreira
- DF: Lucas Esquivel, Arthur Dias, Carlos Teran, Gilberto
- MF: Jadson Alves dos Santos, Luiz Gustavo, Eduardo Kogitzki Anastacio
- FW: Stiven Mendoza, Kerwin Vargas, Kevin Viveros
Odair Hellmann keeps faith with the 4-3-3, and Jadson Alves dos Santos anchors midfield with the most interceptions on the roster. Kevin Viveros gets the nod up front over players with more minutes purely on output, two goals in two games is hard to leave out, and he lines up alongside Kerwin Vargas and Stiven Mendoza in a front three built to punish a leaky Chapecoense back line.
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Athletico PR. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Athletico PR to win this fixture, perhaps by two goals, given the sheer gap in attacking output and table position between these sides. Chapecoense have scored twice in five matches and sit bottom of the division with the worst defense in the league, while Athletico PR bring seven goals from their last five and a midfield built to control possession in Chapeco. To be honest, the main risk for backers is Athletico PR taking their foot off the gas once the game is settled, so our value lean sits with the win and over 2.5 goals rather than a clean sheet market alone.
