Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga 2 2025/26 Match - 10.04.2026

As La Liga 2 enters a decisive phase, Ceuta face Real Sociedad B at the historic Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta on April 10, 2026, with kick-off at 21:30 CEST. Given their mid-table positions and contrasting recent form, this regular season encounter carries significant implications for both sides’ aspirations. Under the guidance of coaches José Juan Romero (Ceuta) and Ion Ansotegi (Real Sociedad B), these squads bring tactical nuance and youthful verve to the Spanish second division stage, all while the passionate home crowd aims to push Ceuta onwards.

Among the players, the spotlight falls on Ceuta’s versatile forward Marcos Fernández—who has shown a knack for crucial goals despite a challenging campaign—and Real Sociedad B’s creator Tomy Carbonell, whose midfield dynamism and passing range offer hope for an away upset. Interestingly, neither side’s goalkeepers have managed a clean sheet in their past five fixtures, suggesting we can expect attacking intent from both.

The “hot stat” from recent encounters: Real Sociedad B have registered a league-high 10 corners per match over their last five games, signaling an aggressive approach down the flanks.

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Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B predictions

Me best bet: Ceuta to win. With a notable home advantage—bolstered by their strong support and greater points tally this season—Ceuta enter this fixture as narrow favorites. Despite defensive frailties, their superior midfield organization and the creative spark provided by Marino Illesca and Youness Lachhab are likely to tip the balance. Real Sociedad B, though energetic, have struggled for consistency away from San Sebastián and recently faltered against disciplined defences. Ceuta’s slightly higher winrate at home matches this year, alongside their victory in the reverse fixture, underpins this selection.

Both teams deploy structured formations—Ceuta often in a 4-2-3-1 with an emphasis on ball retention (over 70 percent pass accuracy), while Real Sociedad B lean into a 4-3-3, accentuating their width. However, the encounter could turn physical: Ceuta average four yellow cards per match and Real Sociedad B a striking eight, suggesting potential disruptions and set-piece opportunities. Ball progression from both midfields is strong, but the high foul count (24 for Ceuta and 26 for Real Sociedad B over the last five games) may limit free-flowing play and test squad discipline late in the season.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B Most recent H2Hs

In their previous head-to-head this season, Ceuta asserted themselves at home, dominating both the possession and overall rhythm en route to a 3-1 victory. The shot tally and free kick count reflect a competitive encounter, but Ceuta’s advantage in execution—particularly with set-pieces and accurate passing—proved decisive. Real Sociedad B’s physicality was evident in their higher foul total but also led to dangerous situations for their own backline.

🚨Read our full Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Ceuta have won 40 percent of their matches in 2026, compared to Real Sociedad B’s 44 percent win rate overall—yet Ceuta’s home record is notably stronger.
• Real Sociedad B average 10 corner kicks per match in their last five games, the highest in the division.
• Ceuta have conceded five goals in their last two home matches, underlining defensive vulnerabilities.
• Marino Illesca leads Ceuta in passing accuracy (over 80 percent) and is crucial for midfield control.
• Real Sociedad B have committed the most yellow card offences per match in La Liga 2’s last five gameweek averages (eight per game).

Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B score prediction: 1-0

A tense, low-scoring affair is anticipated, with both teams likely prioritizing defensive cohesion. Marcos Fernández should provide the edge for Ceuta in front of their supporters, while Tomy Carbonell can be a creative outlet for Real Sociedad B. However, the home side’s slightly more settled lineup and tactical continuity suggest they have what it takes to snatch a narrow win. Strong midfield battles and disciplined defending will shape the narrative, but expect key moments from these highlighted performers to prove decisive.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ceuta the favourite

The odds place Ceuta as moderate favourites at home, with an implied win probability of approximately 47 percent. The value for a draw (3.38) reflects expected parity, while the longer odds for an away win (3.70+) mirror Real Sociedad B’s inconsistent recent performances. Notably, bookmakers expect a tight match, with under 2.5 goals more likely, echoing both teams’ recent inability to score prolifically and Ceuta’s resilient—if imperfect—defensive line.

Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B Over/Under Analysis

• Ceuta’s last three matches have all resulted in under 2.5 goals.
• Real Sociedad B have scored just once in their past three fixtures—underlining a lack of attacking potency.
• Both teams have conceded early goals in recent games, so a first-half goal line of under 1.5 may also offer value.
• With high foul and yellow card averages, expect interruptions to rhythm, suppressing goal chances.

Ceuta Preview

Ceuta’s last five matches have exposed defensive shortcomings—a heavy 0-3 defeat to Eibar and a wild 2-5 reverse at home to Leganes stand out—but there is resilience in grinding narrow wins and holding off better opponents, shown in a comeback victory against Cadiz (2-1) and a battling draw with Burgos CF (1-1). The team, coached by José Juan Romero, thrives on structured buildup and seeks to capitalize on midfield control by Marino Illesca and Youness Lachhab. Recent statistics also emphasize their set-piece strength and physicality; although discipline remains a work in progress, evidenced by recurring yellow cards.

Ceuta possible starting eleven

• GK: Pedro Lopez
• DF: Diego Gonzalez Cabanes, José Matos, Carlos Hernández, Albert Caparrós
• MF: Marino Illesca, Youness Lachhab Didi, Aisar Ahmed, Kuki Zalazar
• FW: Marcos Fernández, Kialy Abdoul Kone

Real Sociedad B Preview

Under Ion Ansotegi, Real Sociedad B rely on youth, tempo, and pressing in a flexible 4-3-3 formation. Their last five matches capture the highs and lows—shutout defeats against Gijon and Almeria (0-1, 1-5), a clean win in an international friendly (3-0 over Crystal Palace U21), and a close, competitive loss to Eibar (0-1). Their attacking units generate multiple corners and shots yet often see progress break down in the final third. Consistent midfield contributions from Tomy Carbonell and reliability at the back from Jon Balda and Kazunari Kita will be vital as they look to improve their away record and convert pressure into points.

Real Sociedad B possible starting eleven

• GK: Egoitz Arana
• DF: Kazunari Kita, Jon Balda, Luken Beitia, Unax Agote
• MF: Tomy Carbonell, Mikel Rodriguez, Alberto Dadie
• FW: Arkaitz Mariezkurrena, Gorka Carrera Zarranz, Dani Diaz

Our prediction: Who Wins?

The Tips.GG team backs Ceuta to secure a narrow home victory. Based on current form, home advantage, and the ability to produce decisive moments in tight matches, Ceuta look better equipped to overcome Real Sociedad B’s youthful exuberance. Expect a low-scoring match tightly contested in midfield, with limited clear-cut chances. Our dedicated AI prediction engine gives Ceuta a 47 percent win probability, Real Sociedad B 25 percent, and the draw 28 percent—a forecast closely mirrored by the bookmakers, reinforcing confidence in this expert analysis.

How to watch Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B

When?
10 April 2026, kick-off at 21:30 CEST.

Where?
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta.

How to watch: Official La Liga 2 broadcaster, online streaming via select betting partners.
Favorite: Ceuta

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