Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: 31.12.2025 A-League Men 2025/26 Preview

As the A-League Men’s regular season nears its halfway mark, Central Coast Mariners host Brisbane Roar at the Polytec Stadium on New Year’s Eve. While Brisbane Roar are vying for the playoff places with a strong run, the Mariners will be desperate to reverse their recent fortunes and kickstart their 2026 ambitions. What stands out is a fascinating clash in tactical approaches, with both teams at pivotal moments in their campaign: the Roar pushing for further consolidation of their top-three status, while the Mariners seek to halt a concerning slide at home.

The spotlight will be firmly fixed on attacking midfielder Jay O’Shea for Brisbane Roar, whose dynamism and ball progression could unsettle the Mariners’ midfield, and young striker Sabit James Ngor for Central Coast Mariners, who despite his team’s collective struggles, remains a glimmer of directness up front. Both have a point to prove in a fixture that has produced drama in recent years.

This time, “hot stat” honours go to Brisbane Roar, whose 47 total shots and 15 yellow cards in their last five outings signal aggressive territory play and an edge that has sometimes bordered on recklessness. Will their risk-taking pay off, or will it open up spaces for the Mariners to exploit?

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Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar prediction

Given the gulf in recent form and Brisbane Roar’s robust showing in attack and tenacity to grind out results, the visitors enter this contest as deserved favourites. Their ability to generate high shot volume and create moments via Jay O’Shea and Christopher Long’s forward play points towards a Brisbane Roar victory. Central Coast Mariners, meanwhile, are winless in their last five and haven’t quite settled their defensive line—leaving gaps that the Roar’s front line are likely to exploit.

Stylistically, expect the Mariners to be compact defensively, as suggested by their 4-4-2 structure in most recent matches. However, their 39 fouls and only 4 yellow cards indicate a team that is reactive, struggling to control possession and often caught chasing the game. Brisbane Roar, in contrast, favour a 4-2-3-1, promoting swift transitions and a physical edge (47 fouls, 15 yellow cards). The Roar’s passing accuracy is marginally better as well, and their greater comfort in midfield could tip the balance—though their aggression may also see them leave themselves open to the counter.

Team Analysis

The Central Coast Mariners come into this with their confidence battered after a 1-3 defeat to Wellington Phoenix. Despite securing an early goal, lapses at the back and a lack of cutting edge up front saw them overwhelmed. Over their last five, they have managed only three goals, conceding a worrying eleven, and draws have been hard to scrape out. Their midfield, spearheaded by Harrison Steele and Alfie McCalmont, has struggled to link play with the forwards, which has left Sabit James Ngor isolated more often than not. Defensive stalwarts like Storm Roux and Lucas Mauragis are working overtime, but the lack of support in transition leaves Redmayne in goal exposed.

For Brisbane Roar, the 1-2 home defeat against Macarthur stung, following a run of resilient results, including a crucial 1-0 victory over Adelaide United and a hard-fought 1-1 draw with Auckland FC. O’Shea’s midfield dynamism and Samuel Klein’s goal-scoring impetus have been vital, while the Roar’s defensive set-up marshaled by Lucas Herrington and James McGarry has given them a platform to build on. The Roar’s recent ability to close out narrow games, combined with a good pass accuracy and a knack for winning fouls high up the pitch, means they’ll look to take the initiative—and press any error the Mariners allow.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Brisbane Roar the favourite

• Moneyline Central Coast Mariners 3.40 | Brisbane Roar 2.09
• Draw 3.41
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.98 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.76 | No 2.01

It’s evident bookmakers read this as a match where Brisbane Roar hold a clear edge—driven by their superior form, attacking creation, and a better points return. However, the Mariners’ ability to fight back late in games should not be underestimated. The slightly shorter odds on Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score reflect the defensive fragility both sides have exhibited at times this season. This all points to an open contest, with the Roar more likely to shade proceedings.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Central Coast Mariners possible starting eleven

• GK: Andrew Redmayne
• DF: Storm Roux, Nathan Paull, Lucas Mauragis, James Donachie
• MF: Harrison Steele, Alfie McCalmont, Brad Tapp, Arthur De Lima
• FW: Sabit James Ngor, Christian Theoharous

The Mariners are likely to stick with their 4-4-2 approach, relying on the experience of Redmayne in goal and the defensive leadership of Donachie and Mauragis. In midfield, Tapp’s energy and McCalmont’s passing range will be crucial if they are to match the Roar’s central trio. Up front, Sabit James Ngor and Theoharous will need to forge quick link-up play, as both have the pace to exploit gaps on the counter. Keep an eye on Brad Tapp, whose box-to-box running and set-piece threat could be pivotal in a tight contest.

Brisbane Roar possible starting eleven

• GK: Dean Bouzanis
• DF: James McGarry, Lucas Herrington, Austin Ludwik, Dimitri Valkanis
• MF: Jay O’Shea, Samuel Klein, Youstin Salas, Justin Vidic, Quinn MacNicol
• FW: Christopher Long

Expect Roar to continue with their favoured 4-2-3-1 set-up. Bouzanis will marshal a settled back four, with McGarry’s overlaps adding an extra dimension. Jay O’Shea’s creativity and Vidic’s recent displays warrant their selection, while Samuel Klein brings the forward impetus from midfield. Up front, Christopher Long—who has scored and provided consistent movement—remains their best hope for unlocking the Mariners. The Roar’s midfield workrate and combination play out wide could stretch the Mariners’ backline if they move the ball quickly through the centre.

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My take on the Match

Given both momentum and squad depth, my main pick is for Brisbane Roar to secure at least a draw—if not an outright win—via the Draw No Bet market, with over 2.5 goals a tempting side angle. Although the Roar are not watertight at the back, their attacking potential—epitomised by O’Shea’s playmaking and Long’s sharpness—gives them the initiative. The Mariners may rally and have their moments at home, but unless they find a creative spark and shore up their defensive lapses, it is difficult to see them taking the full three points. This encounter could be lively, and for fans of both sides, another emotional rollercoaster. Can the home crowd make enough of a difference in this one?

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