Levi Rothermund
After a chaotic 3-3 draw in the first leg, Celje and Egnatia meet again at Stadion Z’dežele to decide who advances in the UEFA Champions League Second Qualifying Round. The aggregate is level, and Celje hold home advantage, but this tie is far from settled. What makes this second leg genuinely interesting is that both sides have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, yet managed to produce six goals between them at the first meeting. Egnatia’s Fernando Medeiros stands out as the biggest individual threat, contributing two goals and four assists across his last four matches. For Celje, Mario Kvesić has been the standout performer with four goals in his last two appearances, and his ability to dictate the tempo from midfield will be central to how the home side approaches this.
Hot stat: Egnatia scored 13 goals across their last five matches, compared to Celje’s six. That attacking output, combined with Egnatia’s 28 total shots to Celje’s six in the same period, tells a clear story about which side has been more dangerous in front of goal recently.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27, Second Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Z’dežele, Celje |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:15 CEST |
Celje vs Egnatia prediction
Celje are heavy favorites here, with bookmakers giving them a 67% win probability. Playing at home, with a crowd behind them and a settled 3-5-2 shape under Vítor Campelos, they have the structural advantage. Their year-to-date record of 15 wins from 28 matches (54% win rate) is the stronger of the two sides on paper, and they have lost just once in their last seven outings.
Egnatia, managed by Nevil Dede, have only won two of their last four matches and drew the other two. Their overall 2026 win rate sits at 39% from 31 games. The first leg showed they can score goals away from home, but they also conceded three, and their defensive discipline in an away second leg at a hostile venue is a real question mark.
We think Celje will edge this over 90 minutes, but Egnatia’s attacking firepower makes a clean sheet unlikely. Both teams scored freely in the first leg, and with Celje needing a win to advance and Egnatia needing at least a draw, expect both sides to commit forward.
Celje commit to a 3-5-2 shape, which gives them width through the wing-backs and numbers in midfield. Their foul count is low and their discipline has been good over the last five matches, with only two yellow cards. Egnatia, by contrast, have picked up nine yellow cards and one red card in the same period, suggesting they play with more aggression and edge. That tendency to foul could hand Celje set-piece opportunities in dangerous areas, which suits a side that has Leonardo Koutris delivering from wide positions with two assists in his last two games.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Celje to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Celje come into this second leg on a run that includes five draws in their last seven games, with one win and one loss mixed in. Their most recent league results show a side that is hard to beat but has found it difficult to put games to bed. The 2-2 draw with Mura and 1-1 against Istra 1961 both point to a team that creates enough but struggles to hold leads. The 0-0 against MTK Budapest and 1-1 with Cukaricki reinforced that pattern. The first leg against Egnatia was their most open performance in recent memory, and Campelos will likely want more defensive structure this time while still pressing for the goal that could settle the tie.
Egnatia arrive in much better scoring form. Their 6-1 demolition of Petrocub was a statement result, and even their 3-1 win over FC Botosani showed a team capable of scoring multiple goals when they get going. The 0-0 against FC Ballkani and a 1-1 draw with Petrocub in an earlier fixture show they are not always in that mode, though. The 3-3 first leg was their most recent outing, and they scored three goals away from home against a side ranked far above them in European competition. Honestly, Dede’s side has more attacking quality than their modest world ranking suggests.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Celje | Egnatia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 12 | 23 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Celje vs Egnatia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Celje the favourite
- Moneyline Celje 1.43 | Egnatia 6.82
- Draw 4.90
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The 1.43 on Celje reflects genuine home advantage and their stronger overall record, but it is short given how open the first leg was. Egnatia at 6.82 carries real value if you believe in their attacking ability to cause problems again. The draw at 4.90 is worth a look for those who think the tie stays level across 90 minutes and heads to extra time. We think the goals market is where the real value sits, given six goals in the first leg and both teams clearly capable of scoring.
Egnatia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Celje possible starting eleven
- GK: Zan Luk Leban
- DF: Damjan Vuklisevic, Alpha Richard Diounkou, Leonardo Koutris
- MF: Darko Hrka, Mario Kvesić, Milot Avdyli, Pijus Sirvys, Artemijus Tutyskinas
- FW: A. Kučys, Yaya Dukuly
Campelos has been consistent with his 3-5-2 shape, and the personnel picks itself based on minutes played. Zan Luk Leban starts in goal with 180 minutes under his belt in recent fixtures. The back three of Vuklisevic, Diounkou, and Koutris provides a solid base, with Koutris also contributing two assists from deep. Mario Kvesić is the one to watch, four goals in his last two appearances makes him the most dangerous player on the pitch. Kučys supports well up front with two goals of his own.
Egnatia possible starting eleven
- GK: Mario Dajsinani
- DF: Arbenit Xhemajli, Eljon Sota, Guillem Jaime, Andrey Yago da Silva Mesquita Almeida
- MF: Fernando Medeiros, Altin Kryeziu, Karim Loukili, Enea Bitri
- FW: Alessandro Albanese, Ildi Gruda
Dede has used a 4-4-2 shape in recent matches, and Dajsinani is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with 360 minutes played. The back four of Xhemajli, Sota, Jaime, and Almeida has been largely settled, though Xhemajli and Sota have each picked up two yellow cards and are walking a disciplinary line. Fernando Medeiros is the creative engine with two goals and four assists, and he will be the player Celje most need to contain. Ildi Gruda adds a goal and an assist from the forward line and will look to exploit space behind Celje’s wing-backs.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Celje. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This second leg has goals written all over it. The first meeting ended 3-3, both squads have attacking players in form, and Egnatia’s defensive discipline has been shaky across their last five matches with nine yellow cards and a red. Celje’s home advantage is real, and Kvesić in particular gives them a match-winner capable of deciding this tie on his own.
We think Celje win this one, but Egnatia score at least once. Their 28 shots in the last five games compared to Celje’s six is a gap that does not disappear overnight, and Medeiros operating in behind a high Celje defensive line will cause problems. The corners market also looks interesting given Egnatia’s 23 corners in five matches.
Our main prediction is Celje to win with both teams scoring. The total goals market leaning over 2.5 also looks well-supported by the evidence from the first leg and both teams’ recent attacking output.
