Liam Duckstein
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Celje host Ararat-Armenia at Stadion Z’dežele in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Third Qualifying Round, needing to overturn a 1-2 deficit from the away fixture played just days ago. The Slovenian side must win to stay alive in Europe, while Ararat-Armenia arrive knowing a draw or better sends them through. That scoreline from the first leg changes everything about how both teams will approach this match.
Mario Kvesić is the man Celje will rely on. The midfielder has scored four goals across the last five matches and brings a direct, attacking threat that Ararat-Armenia will need to account for from the first whistle. For the visitors, Karen Muradyan has featured in every one of their recent games and provides the engine in midfield that keeps Ararat-Armenia structured and difficult to break down.
A hot stat worth noting: Celje have produced 47 total shots across their last five matches, compared to Ararat-Armenia’s 30. The Slovenians are generating chances at a higher volume, yet their conversion rate has been inconsistent, which explains why the first leg ended the way it did despite Celje’s territorial presence.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Champions League 2026/27 Third Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Z’dežele, Celje |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:15 CEST |
Celje vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction
Celje are the home side carrying the pressure of elimination. They have to score at least twice without conceding, which forces them into an open, attacking shape. Ararat-Armenia, on the other hand, have been one of the more active sides in recent weeks, winning four of their last six matches, and they are comfortable in transitional play.
The first leg showed that Ararat-Armenia can defend a lead and hit on the counter. Celje’s 4-3-3 will push high and commit numbers forward, and that leaves space behind. We predict Celje to score, but Ararat-Armenia to find the net at least once in this tie, making both teams to score a strong lean. Given the aggregate pressure and the open nature this second leg demands, over 2.5 goals looks well-supported.
Celje commit fouls at a higher rate across their recent matches and have collected nine yellow cards in five games, compared to Ararat-Armenia’s five. That discipline gap matters in a knockout match. Celje’s aggression will increase as the match progresses, and if Ararat-Armenia absorb the early pressure, the visitors are capable of punishing tired legs late on. The 3-4-3 formation Ararat-Armenia deploy also means they carry genuine width and forward presence even when defending a lead.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ararat-Armenia to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Celje have been inconsistent over the past month. They managed just one win from seven matches, drawing five times and losing once, which reflects a team that struggles to convert territorial advantage into decisive results. Their win over Olimpija Ljubljana on 5 August gave some confidence heading into this second leg, but before that, they drew with Maribor and drew twice with Egnatia, a team ranked far below them. The first leg loss to Ararat-Armenia at home was the low point of that sequence.
Across the last five matches, Celje have scored six goals and registered 18 corners, the latter figure pointing to a team that attacks wide areas frequently. Kvesić’s four goals in that span are the clearest individual bright spot, and his ability to arrive late into the box from a central midfield position makes him genuinely dangerous. Coach Vítor Campelos will need to find a way to create cleaner chances rather than relying on volume.
Ararat-Armenia come into this second leg in strong form. Four wins from six matches in the last 30 days, with no draws, shows a team that plays to a result. Their win over Urartu on 7 August was a 2-1 result, and the first leg win over Celje was also 2-1, a scoreline that reflects their ability to do just enough without overextending. The earlier 4-3 win over Gandzasar shows they are capable of high-scoring matches, but their recent pattern favours tight, controlled victories.
They have scored seven goals across their last five matches and created 30 shots, a lower volume than Celje but with better efficiency. Their 12 corners in five games also suggests they do not over-rely on wide delivery, preferring central combinations. Coach Tulipa has built a side that adapts well to different phases of a match, and the 3-4-3 gives them genuine flexibility in both directions.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
The only recorded meeting between these two sides is the first leg of this very tie, which Ararat-Armenia won 2-1. The stats from that match set the context for everything that follows in the second leg.
| Statistic | Celje | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Celje vs Ararat-Armenia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Celje the favourite
- Moneyline Celje 1.44 | Ararat-Armenia 6.48
- Draw 4.41
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The bookmakers price Celje as clear favourites at around 1.44, which reflects home advantage and the aggregate pressure forcing them forward. Ararat-Armenia at 6.48 looks generous for a team that won the first leg and only needs a draw to go through. The draw price sitting above 4.40 is also notable, as a draw here eliminates Celje, meaning the market is not pricing in the possibility of Ararat-Armenia sitting deep and grinding one out. To be honest, the Armenian side’s odds represent value given the context of the tie.
Possible Starting Lineups
Celje possible starting eleven
- GK: Zan Luk Leban
- DF: Damjan Vuklisevic, Artemijus Tutyskinas, Pijus Sirvys, Leonardo Koutris
- MF: Mario Kvesić, Mark Zabukovnik, Darko Hrka, Milot Avdyli
- FW: Yaya Dukuly, A. Kučys
Celje are likely to line up in their preferred 4-3-3, though the need to chase the tie may push Campelos toward a more attacking 4-2-3-1 shape as the match progresses. Zan Luk Leban gets the nod in goal on the back of his consistent minutes. The back four picks itself, with Koutris offering attacking width from left back. Kvesić is the standout name in midfield and the player most likely to make the difference if Celje are to turn this tie around. Kučys provides a direct option up front alongside the pacey Dukuly.
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Ararat-Armenia. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Celje need to win and will push forward from the start. Their high shot volume and corner count across recent matches confirms they will dominate territorial phases at Stadion Z’dežele. Kvesić scoring four goals in five games makes him the most likely source of a Celje goal, and the home crowd will demand an early response.
Ararat-Armenia, though, have the composure and structure to absorb that pressure. They won four of their last six, conceded only when necessary, and their 3-4-3 gives them real width to exploit the spaces Celje leave behind their attacking fullbacks. The first leg showed Ararat-Armenia are comfortable winning tight matches, and they have every reason to stay disciplined and wait for their moments here.
We predict both teams to score, with Celje getting a goal to make it competitive, but Ararat-Armenia finding the net to effectively end the tie. Over 2.5 goals is our main market recommendation, backed by the open nature of a must-win second leg and the attacking output both sides have shown recently. Our hot tip of Ararat-Armenia scoring in both halves reflects their counter-attacking threat and the spaces that will open up as Celje chase the game.
