Casa Pia vs AVS Prediction: 23.01.2026 Primeira Liga

When Casa Pia and AVS meet at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior on January 23rd, 2026, it’s more than just a clash at the bottom of the Primeira Liga table. Both teams are in search of redemption after disappointing campaigns, with Casa Pia desperate to add to their slender win column—and AVS still without a single victory this season. The context makes for a tense, high-stakes encounter, not least because AVS’ resilience, despite recent losses, has earned them a reputation as stubborn opponents.

Among the players to watch, Casa Pia will look to striker Claudio Mendes, whose solitary goal in their recent home stretch hints at a capacity for crucial breakthroughs. On AVS’ side, all eyes are on Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola—the forward’s work rate and dynamism offer rare sparks in a team hungry for inspiration. These individuals could be decisive in a game shaped by nerves and necessity.

A standout stat: AVS have now failed to score in three consecutive Primeira Liga matches, underlining their attacking difficulties. This “hot stat” says as much about the hosts’ chances as it does about the visitors’ struggles.

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Casa Pia vs AVS prediction

The most valuable match prediction centers on a home win for Casa Pia. Their odds hover between 1.91 and 1.96 across major bookmakers, a fair reflection of both their superior (albeit modest) form and AVS’s ongoing winless streak in the league.

Casa Pia’s pragmatic 4-3-3 setup emphasizes midfield stability, but their games have frequently descended into physical affairs—reflected in a high tally of yellow cards (seven in their last five matches) and 58 total fouls. Both teams are battling for every inch, but while Casa Pia have managed to produce 26 total shots in recent outings, AVS, with 28, have shown little cutting edge and frequently fail to convert pressure into goals (zero in last three).

With both squads averaging fewer than a goal per game and committing a combined 99 fouls in their last five (Casa Pia 58, AVS 41), expect a scrappy, low-scoring battle, likely settled by a single moment of individual brilliance.

Team Analysis

Casa Pia come into this match following a tough 0-3 home defeat to Sporting CP—an elite side, yet the loss underlined Casa Pia’s current defensive fragility, with six goals shipped in their last two matches. Nevertheless, there are positives: in their 2-1 win over Tondela, Casa Pia showcased resilience and a sharper attack, and their 0-0 draw against Vitoria Guimaraes proved they can frustrate even stronger mid-table sides when defensively focused. While the goals have dried up recently, their discipline and shot volume indicate that with the right finishing, a positive result is attainable against weaker opposition.

AVS are entrenched in a more severe crisis. After falling 0-1 to Arouca, their losing streak extended to three, and they sit rock-bottom with just four points from 18 matches. Their only recent success was a 2-2 draw against Nacional, where defensive lapses undermined otherwise spirited attacking moves. Defensive lapses, discipline issues (nine yellow cards in last five matches), and a toothless attack have hampered AVS’ ability to change the story. Still, their compact 4-2-3-1 can occasionally frustrate, even if their transition game almost never delivers on its promise.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Casa Pia vs AVS stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Casa Pia the favourite

• Moneyline Casa Pia 1.91-1.96 | AVS 4.00-4.46
• Draw 3.25-3.44
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.35 | Under 2.5 1.61
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.20 | No 1.63

Bookmakers justifiably rate Casa Pia as favourites. Not only do AVS have the lowest win probability in the Primeira Liga, but their blunt attacking output and fragile defence also support the short odds on a home win and on “Under 2.5” goals. The low “BTTS: No” price emphasizes the expectation for Casa Pia to keep AVS at bay, with recent performances and head-to-head stats reinforcing this outlook.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Casa Pia possible starting eleven

Casa Pia are expected to deploy their preferred 4-3-3, with Patrick Sequeira between the posts and the experienced José Fonte leading the back-line. Pérez, Brito, and Nhaga should anchor the midfield, blending defensive grit with transition play. In attack, Mendes’ recent scoring form and Livolant’s creativity will be central. Watch for Fonte’s organization at set-pieces—a key point given AVS’s aerial frailties.

AVS possible starting eleven

AVS should stick to their conservative 4-2-3-1, hoping Bertelli can provide stability in goal. Ponck and Castro pair up as experienced central defenders, while Barros and Grau will need to be disciplined in midfield to prevent quick transitions. Up top, Akinsola’s mobility and physicality make him a potential x-factor, but the attacking trio as a whole must start finding the net if AVS are to reverse their fortunes.

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My take on the Match

My main pick for this fixture is Casa Pia to win. While neither side arrives in high spirits, everything points to a tense, narrow victory for the hosts. Casa Pia at least have recent proof of converting game control into goals—AVS, meanwhile, simply can’t find the net. Expect a scrappy, nervy contest likely decided by defensive discipline and an isolated attacking moment, with Casa Pia’s superior organization and home advantage giving them the edge. If AVS finally break their duck, it could only come from a set piece or a moment of individual improvisation, but the data and trends say otherwise.

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