Cagliari vs Roma Prediction: 07.12.2025 Serie A 2025/26 Preview

This weekend, Unipol Domus in Cagliari prepares to host a fascinating Serie A contest with Roma making the journey across the peninsula. The Giallorossi, under the tactical stewardship of Gian Piero Gasperini, are keen on consolidating their top-four position, while Cagliari, helmed by Fabio Pisacane, are searching for vital points to lift them away from the bottom end of the table. While Roma boast a formidable away form and squad depth, Cagliari’s resilience at home—and their recent knack for frustrating higher-ranked sides—adds a layer of intrigue and unpredictability to this tie.

Two players to keep a close eye on: for Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito has rediscovered his scoring touch with three goals in his last four outings, offering hope in the final third. For Roma, creative hub Lorenzo Pellegrini has pulled the strings in midfield—his two goals and an assist over recent weeks highlight his growing influence.

Hot stat: In the last five matches, Roma have accumulated a striking 24 corners—averaging nearly five per game—showcasing their persistent offensive pressure and ability to stretch defences wide. Cagliari, meanwhile, have struggled, with only one win in 11 league appearances and a tendency to leak goals late.

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Cagliari vs Roma prediction

Roma are clear favourites in this fixture—and rightfully so. With a 57% win-probability from bookmakers and a vastly superior win-rate this calendar year (67% versus Cagliari’s 26%), all stats are pointing toward an away win. Roma’s capacity to manage possession and create abundant chances—evident from a staggering 60 shots in their last five matches—sets them well ahead of a Cagliari side lacking in attacking consistency and defensive solidity.

Expect Roma to control the tempo with their 3-5-2 system, dominating ball possession and looking to exploit Cagliari’s vulnerabilities, especially on the flanks. Cagliari, often set up in a 3-4-2-1, will rely on robust midfield energy and defensive organisation, but discipline could become an issue as they’re not shy of racking up yellow cards (12 in the last five matches, compared to Roma’s 10). With both teams capable of incisive transitions, there’s just enough in Cagliari’s resilience to expect them on the scoresheet, though Roma’s attacking quality should ultimately prevail.

Team Analysis

Cagliari emerge from a patchy run of form—three draws and two defeats in their last five league outings. Their latest performance, a 1-1 draw against Napoli, showcased their characteristic grit; Esposito’s early goal was cancelled out, but Cagliari limited Napoli’s opportunities, boasting improved defensive shape. Previously, they battled to a 3-3 stalemate with Genoa, hinting at latent attacking threat. However, the lack of a clinical edge and frequent defensive lapses continue to hamper progression.

Roma are coming off an impressive run, notching four wins from their last six across Serie A and Europe. Most recently, they brushed aside Cremonese 3-1 at home, following a composed 2-1 triumph over Midtjylland in continental play. Gasperini’s men are blessed with attacking variety; whether it’s Pellegrini’s orchestrations or Matias Soule’s goal-scoring prowess, they find ways to unlock deep defences. Roma’s only blip, a 1-0 defeat to Napoli, will sting, but their high pass accuracy (averaging 73% in the last five) and attacking impetus make them clear favourites here.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Cagliari vs Roma stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Roma the favourite

• Moneyline Cagliari 5.50 | Roma 1.68
• Draw 3.75
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.93 | Under 2.5 1.87
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.06 | No 1.81

Bookmakers are pricing Roma as convincing favourites on all markets—the away win hovers around 1.68 on average, which is testament to current form, quality, and squad depth. Cagliari, despite home advantage, are out at 5.50, reflecting concerns with their winless stretch and defensive vulnerabilities. With both sides showing a penchant for conceding (Cagliari in particular), over 2.5 goals looks appealing, especially given recent Roma scorelines. The BTTS ‘yes’ market is tempting too, considering Cagliari’s knack for grabbing a goal, even in adversity.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Cagliari possible starting eleven

Cagliari should line up in their familiar 3-4-2-1, anchoring the backline with Luperto and Obert. Expect Adopo and Deiola to feature centrally to provide steal and distribution, with Palestra likely to push forward from wing-back. Esposito and Borrelli are the main sources of goals, while Luvumbo’s pace will be the X-factor out wide. Defensive organisation will be crucial, and watch for Prati breaking up Roma attacks in midfield—he’s a rising presence. Injuries and squad rotations could force Pisacane’s hand, but this eleven gives the most reliable mix based on recent appearances.

Roma possible starting eleven

Roma’s expected 3-5-2 provides width and attacking flexibility. Svilar is a steady hand in goal; in defence, Mancini and NDicka bring composure, with França’s athleticism a useful asset. The midfield five is anchored by Cristante and Koné, both breaking up play and driving possession, while Pellegrini is the creative force and set-piece leader. Çelik and Hermoso regularly join attacks from wing-back. Up front, Soule and El Shaarawy blend guile and goals—expect Roma to transition quickly from midfield, seeking to catch Cagliari on the break. The returning Dybala from injury could come into the mix from the bench if required.

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My take on the Match

Backing Roma to win is the clear call—while Cagliari are plucky at home and have improved in recent weeks, the gulf in quality and current form is simply too large to ignore. Esposito’s recent heroics aside, Cagliari lack a consistent threat, and their defensive frailties are likely to be punished by a Roma side who know how to seize control and capitalise on chances, especially from wide areas and set pieces. Expect Roma’s tactical discipline and depth to see them through a potentially tricky opening spell, before pulling away after the break. Prediction: Roma to win 3-1 with Pellegrini starring and set-pieces proving decisive.

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