Liam Duckstein
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Serie A reaches matchday 11 with Cagliari hosting Frosinone at the Unipol Domus, and the market has done something rare. An away side sits as favourite in Sardinia, with Frosinone priced around 2.45 against Cagliari’s 2.70. The table explains why. Frosinone hold sixth place on 20 points and own the third-best attack in the division, 24 goals in ten rounds. Cagliari sit 12th on 13 points and have scored just nine times all season. The form gap is wider still: Cagliari are winless in five with four straight defeats, while Frosinone have taken 10 points from their last five and scored 15 goals in that run. Antonio Raimondo, four goals in five matches for the visitors, and Daniel Maldini, Cagliari’s joint top scorer this month, are the two names to watch.
The hot stat from recent weeks belongs entirely to the visitors. Frosinone have fired 108 shots across their last five matches, better than 21 per game, and converted that volume into 15 goals. Cagliari managed 52 shots and four goals in the same span. That contrast shapes this whole fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season (Italy) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Unipol Domus, Cagliari |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Cagliari vs Frosinone prediction
We predict Frosinone to win, and at odds around 2.45 this is the best value on the board. Cagliari have lost four in a row, conceding 12 goals across those defeats, and their last five games produce four goals scored against 13 conceded. Frosinone arrive with three wins in five, a 60% winrate over the past month, and an attack that put five past Lecce, four past Sassuolo and four past Atalanta. To be honest, home advantage is the only real counterargument, yet Cagliari’s problems run deeper than venue. Their passing volume actually edges the visitors, 1992 attempts to 1797 over five games, but all that possession produces very little: 52 shots, four goals, zero free-kick goals. Frosinone do far more with less of the ball, and across the calendar year they have won 22 of 38 matches against Cagliari’s 13 of 37.
Style matters here too. Cagliari commit 73 fouls across their last five matches and collected ten yellow cards plus a red, the signature of a side chasing games and lunging into tackles. Frosinone foul less, 62 in five, and took just five bookings, so they should keep eleven men on the pitch and force Cagliari to break them down. Expect the hosts to see more of the ball and expect Frosinone to punish every loose touch against a defence that has leaked in every recent outing.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Frosinone to score over 1.5 team goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Cagliari’s last five results read like a slow-motion collapse. A 1-1 draw with Juventus now looks like their high point. Since then came 0-4 against Monza, 0-2 against Bologna, 2-4 against Roma and, most recently, a 1-2 defeat at Lazio where the defence buckled in the closing stages. In our preview of Lazio vs Cagliari we called a comfortable Lazio win, and the 2-1 result delivered it, even if the single-goal margin was tighter than we expected. The deeper worry for Fabio Pisacane is the attack. Nine league goals in ten rounds ranks third-worst in Serie A, and M’Bala Nzola and Daniel Maldini, two goals each in this stretch, carry almost the entire scoring burden.
Frosinone keep pouring forward. The latest outing ended 2-0 against Torino, a controlled win where Massimiliano Alvini’s men outshot their guests and never looked in real danger. In our preview of Frosinone vs Torino we tipped the hosts to win with goals at both ends, and the 2-0 result delivered the main call even though the goals angle fell flat. Before that came a 5-1 demolition of Lecce, a wild 4-4 draw with Atalanta, a 4-2 win over Sassuolo and a 0-3 defeat to Napoli, the only blemish in two months. Unbeaten in four since that Napoli loss, they create chances in bunches through Giacomo Calò, four goals from midfield, and Farès Ghedjemis, four assists from 20 shots.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Their most recent competitive meeting came in last season’s Coppa Italia, where Cagliari beat Frosinone 4-1 in September 2025. Current form flips that picture almost completely.
| Statistic | Cagliari | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Cagliari vs Frosinone stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Frosinone the favourite
- Moneyline Cagliari 2.70 | Frosinone 2.45
- Draw 3.65
Those prices imply roughly 35% for Cagliari, 25% for the draw and 40% for Frosinone, and we lean towards the away side being slightly underestimated. A team with three wins in five and 15 goals scored should not be available at similar odds to one that has lost four straight. The total-goals and BTTS lines had not been priced by our odds feed at the time of writing, so we base those calls purely on the underlying numbers.
Possible Starting Lineups
Cagliari possible starting eleven
- GK: Elia Caprile
- DF: Adam Obert, Yerry Mina, Juan Rodriguez, Zé Pedro
- MF: Michel Adopo, Alessandro Romano, Alieu Fadera, Daniel Maldini, Paul Mendy
- FW: M’Bala Nzola
Pisacane has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 and we expect the same shape. Caprile keeps his place after 20 saves in five games, and he will need another busy afternoon behind a back four where Juan Rodriguez, twelve fouls in five, walks a disciplinary tightrope. Maldini and Nzola are the only reliable goal threats, with Mendy offering eight shots and constant work rate from the left. Alessandro Deiola and Harry Winks are the likeliest fresh legs if the midfield tires.
Frosinone possible starting eleven
- GK: Lorenzo Palmisani
- DF: Gabriele Calvani, Anthony Oyono, Gabriele Bracaglia, Ilario Monterisi
- MF: Giacomo Calò, Patrizio Masini, Romano Schmid, Farès Ghedjemis, Giorgi Kvernadze
- FW: Antonio Raimondo
Alvini also runs a 4-2-3-1, and this selection almost picks itself on minutes played. Palmisani has covered every minute and made 20 saves. Calò and Masini screen, Schmid and the wide pair of Ghedjemis and Kvernadze supply Raimondo, whose four goals in five make him the focal point. Alessio Zerbin and Daniel Birligea wait on the bench should the game stretch open.
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Cagliari. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Everything points one way. Frosinone score 3.0 goals per game over their last five, Cagliari concede 2.6 in the same period, and the hosts have not tasted victory in five attempts. We predict a 1-2 away win, perhaps even 1-3 if Cagliari’s legs fail late again, with Raimondo and Calò doing the damage and Maldini or Nzola grabbing a consolation. The 4-1 Coppa Italia win Cagliari recorded last season feels like ancient history given the direction of both squads. Back Frosinone on the moneyline, add over 2.5 goals, and take the hot tip on the visitors scoring at least twice.
