Burnley vs Crystal Palace Prediction: 03.12.2025 English Premier League

Tuesday night at Turf Moor brings together two sides living remarkably different narratives in the current campaign. Burnley, mired in a frustrating run of defeats and finding goals painfully hard to come by, are eyeing this clash as a possible turning point to ignite their season. In contrast, Crystal Palace—under Oliver Glasner’s stewardship—are flying high, mixing defensive discipline with bursts of incisive attacking play. The inside story? Last time out at Turf Moor, Palace left with the points, and they’ll be confident of further success against a Burnley side desperate to reverse their fortunes.

For Burnley, much of their hope will lean on creative midfielder Josh Cullen, who showed composure in the middle of the park despite the mire, while Zian Flemming’s knack for finding space may just be the spark the Clarets need. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, look to the surging runs of Ismaila Sarr and the link-up threat of Jean-Philippe Mateta to keep their purple patch rolling.

Hot stat: Across their last five matches, Crystal Palace have attempted a remarkable 71 shots—more than double Burnley’s 30. That sort of attacking ambition could well define the outcome!

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Burnley vs Crystal Palace prediction

Based on current form, squad depth, and the all-important momentum, Crystal Palace arrive at Turf Moor as rightly installed favourites. Burnley’s attacking play has lacked bite—only 3 goals in their last five, with just one solitary win from their last ten outings. Palace have shown greater control in midfield, better shot conversion, and genuine ability to unlock stubborn back lines.

Notably, Palace’s aggressive pressing—reflected in their 49 interceptions and 60 fouls in five matches—indicates they’ll challenge Burnley’s attempt to build from the back. Glasner’s men boast 71 shots, 19 corners, and solid pass accuracy of 75 percent, balancing risk with control. Meanwhile, Burnley have been profligate, attempting fewer shots and struggling to impose their midfield presence. Their fouls count (33 in 5) suggests the pressure could mount quickly, particularly in transition.

Given this disparity, the smart value is on a Palace win, with additional consideration for both teams scoring—Palace’s open play style does leave them exposed to swift counters, which could help Burnley find the net. However, Palace’s superior attacking metrics, combined with their disruptive midfield energy and variety in set-pieces, should shine through.

Team Analysis

Burnley: The Clarets’ woes deepened with a recent 1-3 defeat to Brentford, in which defensive lapses and a lack of sustained threat up front proved costly. Prior to that, Burnley were blanked by Chelsea (0-2), struggled to keep pace in a five-goal thriller against West Ham (2-3), and fell to Arsenal (0-2). Their lone bright spot was a dramatic 3-2 win over Wolves, which showcased flashes of resilience and attacking verve. But the pattern has been clear: Burnley are struggling for end product, and their ability to close matches has let them down again and again.

Crystal Palace: Palace’s recent form tells a far different tale. Despite a narrow 1-2 loss to Manchester United, they’ve claimed victories over Wolves (2-0) and in Europe against AZ Alkmaar (3-1). Their goalless draw with Brighton was a showcase of disciplined, controlled football, and their only stumble came against Strasbourg in a competitive continental outing. Palace’s midfield, led by Adam Wharton and Daichi Kamada, has been dynamic in both recovery and distribution, while the wide threat of Sarr and the finishing of Mateta give opponents pause with every attack.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Burnley vs Crystal Palace stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Crystal Palace the favourite

• Moneyline Burnley 4.50-4.82 | Crystal Palace 1.74-1.82
• Draw 3.60-3.88
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.97 | Under 2.5 1.83
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.79 | No 1.94

Given Palace’s superior recent form, greater attacking threat, and Burnley’s worrying defensive record, the bookies’ odds make sense—Palace justifiably favourites at most sites. Burnley’s long odds reflect their slump and inability to stem goals against top-half opposition. The tight odds on over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring suggest this could be an open contest, especially with Palace keen to impose their game early.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Burnley possible starting eleven

Expected to appear in a 3-4-2-1 or potentially 4-4-2 for added defensive coverage, Burnley lean on Dúbravka’s experience in goal. Josh Cullen will try to dictate the tempo in the middle, with Flemming pushing for creativity up front. Kyle Walker brings both authority and attacking intent from the flanks. Zian Flemming is one to watch for late runs into the box—Burnley’s best hope for unlocking Palace’s defence.

Crystal Palace possible starting eleven

Palace have steadily built around a strong 4-2-3-1 formation, with Dean Henderson an anchor between the posts. Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell provide width, while Lacroix brings physical presence in central defence. Sarr and Mateta have been consistent goal threats, ably supported by Wharton’s box-to-box energy and Kamada’s vision. Expect Palace to control proceedings with fast transitions and aggressive pressing.

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My take on the Match

If there’s ever a night for Burnley to turn the tide, it’s this. But all evidence points to a strong Palace side too savvy and too sharp for the hosts. Expect Palace to set the tone with early pressing and direct play—Mateta and Sarr likely to trouble Burnley’s defence with their positioning and pace. Burnley are capable of striking back, especially on the counter, but Palace’s shot volume and midfield tenacity make them deserved favourites.

Main pick: Crystal Palace to win (and value on both teams to score). The underlying numbers, passing tempo, and recent sharpness of Palace’s attack suggest they have the tools to break down a vulnerable Burnley. Yet the hosts, with home support, could make this a lively contest!

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