Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction: 22.11.2025 English Premier League

As Turf Moor prepares to host Burnley and Chelsea for this Premier League clash, the match offers an intriguing contest rooted in contrasting recent form. While Burnley aim to climb out of the lower reaches of the table, Chelsea arrive as clear favourites, boasting strong away results and renewed attacking verve under the guidance of Enzo Maresca. With Chelsea currently positioned third in the league and Burnley struggling at seventeenth, this fixture provides an opportunity for both teams to reinforce their respective ambitions — be it survival or a title charge.

A couple of players who could shape this contest are Zian Flemming, Burnley’s in-form forward with 3 goals in his last 3 matches, and Estêvão Willian, Chelsea’s dynamic attacker who has netted twice across Chelsea’s recent triumphs. Their performances could directly impact this match’s outcome, especially given current form and the tactical approaches of both sides.

Hot stat: Chelsea have amassed a remarkable 33 corners in their last 5 matches, highlighting their sustained attacking pressure from wide areas — a trend that could spell trouble for Burnley’s defensive unit, which has conceded 22 goals in just 11 league games.

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Burnley vs Chelsea prediction

The value in this fixture leans distinctly towards Chelsea to win. The Londoners’ blend of efficiency in attack (11 goals in their last 5 games) and ability to control possession, against a Burnley side that’s defensively vulnerable (conceding 22 in 11 league games, 8 goals in last 4 matches), gives Chelsea a significant edge. With a win rate of 71% across the past month and a 4-2-3-1 system that maximises width and ball progression, Chelsea’s high probability of victory (average 64% bookmaker prediction) aligns with statistical trends and form guides.

From a tactical viewpoint, Burnley under Scott Parker still favour transitional play but struggle with cohesive pressing and defending set pieces. They average 6 fouls per match and maintain a lower ball possession rate, which could see them on the back foot for extended stretches. Chelsea, meanwhile, rack up both fouls (14 per match on average across the last 5) and yellow cards (11 in last 5), suggesting occasional sloppiness when defending quickly in transition. However, their superior ball retention (2351 passes, 86% pass accuracy), and potency from corners (33 corners, 1 goal) highlight strengths Burnley may find hard to counter.

Team Analysis

Burnley’s recent games: After a tough period marked by a three-match losing streak, Burnley responded with wins over Leeds (2-0) and Wolves (3-2). However, the recent losses to Arsenal (0-2) and West Ham (2-3) have exposed ongoing defensive frailties. Against West Ham, despite scoring twice, Burnley conceded three and were frequently undone by set-pieces and wide deliveries. Zian Flemming continues to provide attacking spark, but Burnley’s inability to maintain control in midfield and their susceptibility to quick transitions remain concerns. Set against Chelsea, these shortcomings could prove costly.

Chelsea’s recent games: The Blues enter this fixture in confident mood, with a standout 3-0 victory over Wolves and a high-scoring 4-3 result in their previous fixture against the same opponent. Their only blip was the 1-2 home loss to Sunderland, a match where defensive focus momentarily lapsed. Recent draws (notably 2-2 against Qarabag) indicate occasional vulnerability, but overall, Chelsea’s attack spearheaded by Estêvão Willian, João Pedro, and the creative supply from Enzo Fernández and Andrey Santos suggests a side in ascendance. Their pressing intensity and set-piece efficacy, as reflected in corners and shots, underpin an offensive strategy that Burnley may struggle to match.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Burnley vs Chelsea stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Chelsea the favourite

• Moneyline Burnley 6.50 | Chelsea 1.48
• Draw 4.50
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.87 | Under 2.5 1.93
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.95

These odds reflect Chelsea’s status as strong favourites, not only due to their top-three positioning but also their superior attacking stats and demonstrably higher pass accuracy and possession metrics. Moreover, their success on the road, paired with Burnley’s shaky defensive record (conceding nearly 2 goals per game), justifies the short price on an away win. However, Burnley’s recent attacking improvement means a high-scoring contest with both teams on target is a reasonable scenario.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Burnley possible starting eleven

Scott Parker is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that delivered recent attacking improvement. Dúbravka will provide experience in goal, while the full-back pairing of Hartman and Walker offers a balance of youth and tactical nous. Key to Burnley’s hopes is Flemming’s form in attack, ably supported by Anthony and Mejbri. Burnley’s midfield must stay disciplined, as Chelsea’s pressing could otherwise overwhelm them. Watch for Quilindschy Hartman’s energetic overlaps and Zian Flemming’s movement in advanced areas.

Chelsea possible starting eleven

Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea are likely to continue with their 4-2-3-1, maintaining a solid midfield core. Robert Sanchez is a reliable presence in goal. The backline, led by James and Fofana, will anchor the team’s defensive resilience while enabling fullbacks to join attacks. Expect Fernández and Caicedo to orchestrate possession, with Santos supporting late runs. The attacking trio of Estêvão Willian, João Pedro, and Garnacho, all in form, ensure Chelsea pose a threat both centrally and from the flanks. João Pedro’s movement between the lines and Willian’s directness will test Burnley’s defense throughout.

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The Verdict

Backing Chelsea to win convincingly looks the best route — their superior technical quality, sharpness in the attacking third, and set-piece dominance are set to tip the contest in their favour. Burnley, while capable of finding the net — especially through Zian Flemming — have shown defensive frailties under sustained pressure. Expect Chelsea’s creative midfield to control proceedings and open up Burnley, especially down the flanks. For punters, Chelsea -1 Asian Handicap and Over 2.5 Goals provide strong value, with both teams likely to score given Burnley’s recent attacking improvement even if Chelsea look primed for a clear victory.

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