Sofia Quijada
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Burgos CF welcome a Ceuta side that sits rock bottom of the La Liga 2 table with zero points after four rounds. The hosts have stumbled through a run of draws themselves, but the gap in quality and confidence between these two clubs looks wide. The interesting angle here is Ceuta’s finishing: across their last five matches they have scored just a single goal, a number that tells you almost everything about why they occupy 22nd place with a goal difference of minus eleven.
Watch Álex Forés for Burgos, he has netted twice in the last five outings and remains the focal point of Sergio Francisco’s attack. For Ceuta, Kuki Zalazar is the one to monitor, he leads his side with ten shots in that span, a lone bright spark in an otherwise blunt attack.
Hot stat: Ceuta have managed only 1 goal across their last five matches while shipping 12 in return during that stretch, the worst attacking output in the entire division right now.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Municipal El Plantio, Burgos |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Burgos CF vs Ceuta prediction
Burgos CF are the clear pick here, priced around 1.62 by most books, and we back that price with confidence. The hosts are unbeaten in five (1W-3D-1L run over the last month), while Ceuta arrive on a four-match losing streak with a goal difference that ranks last in the whole competition. We predict a home win, and given Ceuta’s inability to find the net, a comfortable one at that.
Style-wise, Burgos foul slightly more (65 vs 62 fouls in the last five games) but pick up fewer cards (8 yellows against Ceuta’s 9), suggesting a disciplined defensive shape rather than reckless challenges. Passing accuracy sits close between the two sides (roughly 81% each), but Burgos convert possession into shots more efficiently, 48 total shots to Ceuta’s 47 despite scoring five times more. Ceuta actually edge the corner count (19 to 17), which hints at a side forced deep and defending set pieces rather than dictating territory. That defensive fragility, combined with an attack producing almost nothing, points toward a low-scoring, one-sided contest.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ceuta fail to score (Burgos clean sheet) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Burgos CF have drawn three of their last five games, including back-to-back stalemates against Real Sociedad B (2-2) and Real Oviedo (0-0), their most recent outing. That 0-0 followed a 0-1 defeat to Sporting Gijon, but sandwiched between those results was a 3-2 win over Cordoba and a goalless draw with Cultural Leonesa. The pattern shows a team capable of scoring, five goals across five matches, but one that has struggled to close games out at home this early in the season, a trend our team expects to break against weaker opposition.
Ceuta’s form reads far worse. Their last match ended in a 0-2 loss to Celta Vigo B, extending a run that includes a 0-3 defeat to Mallorca, a 0-2 loss to Las Palmas and a 1-5 collapse against Andorra. The only positive result in this stretch was a 2-1 win over Malaga, five matches ago. Four straight losses, conceding multiple goals in three of them, paint a picture of a side low on confidence heading into Burgos, and perhaps low on morale too.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Burgos CF | Ceuta |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Burgos CF vs Ceuta stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Burgos CF the favourite
- Moneyline Burgos CF 1.62 | Ceuta 5.25
- Draw 3.75
The market leans heavily toward Burgos, and given Ceuta’s zero wins and worst goal difference in the division, that price looks fair, perhaps even a touch generous. We see little value in backing the away side or the draw here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Burgos CF possible starting eleven
- GK: Ander Cantero
- DF: Grego Sierra, Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios, Brais Martínez, David Gonzalez
- MF: Sergio González, Alberto Dadie, José Gragera, Pablo Galdames
- FW: Curro, Álex Forés
Sergio Francisco tends to stick with his 4-4-2 shape, and the players above have logged the most minutes across the last five rounds. Álex Forés leads the line as the main goal threat, while Sergio González and Alberto Dadie anchor the midfield with heavy passing loads.
Ceuta possible starting eleven
- GK: Guillermo Vallejo Delgado
- DF: Carlos Hernández, Yann Bodiger, Carlos Redruello Nimo, José Matos
- MF: Alejandro Meléndez, Kuki Zalazar, Marino Illesca
- FW: Cedric Teguia, Jordi Escobar, Alejandro Camacho Ramírez
José Juan Romero’s 4-3-3 relies on Kuki Zalazar to create from midfield, though the front three of Teguia, Escobar and Camacho Ramírez have offered little firepower recently. Guillermo Vallejo Delgado gets the nod in goal on recent minutes and save volume over his rotation partner.
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Ceuta. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Burgos CF should have enough to see off a Ceuta side that has lost four straight and scored only once in that time. The hosts’ own draw-heavy form is a mild concern, but against opponents shipping goals at this rate, we expect the difference in quality to show. Our staff backs Burgos CF to win, with Under 2.5 goals and BTTS No offering the best combined value given Ceuta’s scoring drought.
