Burgos CF vs Almeria Prediction: 09.05.2026 La Liga 2

Burgos CF face Almeria on 9 May 2026 at Municipal El Plantio, a fixture with direct implications for the La Liga 2 promotion race. Both teams share almost identical win probabilities from bookmakers, underlining just how closely matched this encounter is. Almeria hold second place, while Burgos CF are pushing for playoff security. Sergio Arribas Calvo, whose three goals in four matches make him a decisive threat for Almeria, and Curro, responsible for key Burgos attacks, stand out as players to watch. The hot stat: Almeria have netted twelve goals in their last five matches, a rate more than triple that of Burgos, signaling a clear offensive edge for the visitors.

Burgos CF vs Almeria prediction

We predict Almeria will avoid defeat, with the value on the double chance (Almeria or Draw). Almeria’s superior firepower (twelve goals in their last five) and higher season win rate (63%) provide a measurable advantage, despite Burgos CF’s home resilience and solid recent form. Burgos have only scored three goals in their last five, so expect them to struggle to match Almeria’s offensive output. Both teams average high foul counts (Burgos 50, Almeria 56 in the last five), so the rhythm could be choppy, with possible cards impacting both sides. Almeria are more effective in attack and transition, shown by a larger number of total shots (57 vs 36). Burgos, while defensively disciplined, may lack the clinical finishing to keep up if the game opens up. The high number of corners and interceptions for both signals end-to-end spells and set-piece chances.

Team Analysis

Burgos CF’s last five: 2W, 2D, 1L, with just three goals scored. Their previous match, a 0-0 draw against Real Sociedad B, highlighted defensive discipline but exposed their lack of attacking cutting edge. Curro remains their most productive player, scoring two of their last three goals. Defensively, Grego Sierra and Florian Miguel anchor a backline that rarely collapses but offers little threat going forward. Midfielders like Atienza keep possession tidy but rarely advance the ball into dangerous areas. The absence of consistent goalscorers up front hampers Burgos’ ability to turn tight games into wins.

Almeria’s last five: 4W, 0D, 1L, scoring twelve and conceding eight. Their last outing was a 4-2 win over Mirandes, a game that reinforced the team’s attacking depth with Arribas, Baptistão, and Embarba all on the scoresheet in recent matches. The team thrives in high-tempo scenarios, pressing well and capitalizing on errors. Their defense, while aggressive and sometimes prone to conceding, is balanced by a midfield that transitions quickly. Embarba and Arribas both contribute decisively in the final third, giving Almeria several avenues for goals. The team’s aggressive style also results in frequent yellow cards and fouls.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Burgos CF vs Almeria stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Tight margins

• Moneyline Burgos CF 2.69 | Almeria 2.74
• Draw 3.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.80
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.85 | No 1.90

Bookmakers rate both sides nearly equally, with Burgos CF and Almeria offered at near-parity. The draw sits slightly longer, reflecting the slightly higher likelihood of a winner emerging. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both well-priced, indicating market anticipation of an open, attacking game. We see value in over 2.5 and BTTS based on recent Almeria form and both sides’ defensive frailties.

Possible Starting Lineups

Burgos CF possible starting eleven

This lineup reflects Burgos CF’s preference for a 4-2-3-1. Cantero is the clear first-choice goalkeeper. Grego Sierra and Miguel anchor the back four, with Buñuel and Brais Martinez as fullbacks. The midfield sees Atienza, Morante, and González for ball retention and defensive cover, while Appin pushes forward. Curro is the main creative outlet, and Niño leads the line as the primary striker. Curro remains the most dangerous attacking threat, while defensive consistency is ensured by Sierra and Miguel.

Almeria possible starting eleven

Almeria also favor a 4-2-3-1. Andrés Fernández is ever-present in goal. Bonini and Ely should provide strength in central defense, flanked by Muñoz and Luna. The midfield offers both steel and creativity with Džodić and Puigmal sitting deeper, Horta and Arribas supporting attacks. Up front, Embarba and Baptistão share the scoring load and offer multiple threats in the box. Arribas and Embarba are the main creative and finishing engines, with Baptistão’s physicality vital up top.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

The Verdict

We predict a high-scoring contest, with both teams finding the net. Almeria’s attack has proven unstoppable in recent weeks and we trust them to score multiple goals again. Burgos CF’s home defense can withstand pressure, but their lack of attacking variety may leave them trailing if forced to chase the game. The most value sits on Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, with Almeria favored to take at least a point, possibly all three.

More useful links for football fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG