Bulgaria vs Georgia Prediction: 18.11.2025 FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification 2026 Preview

As Group E draws to its dramatic close, Bulgaria welcomes Georgia to the Vasil Levski National Stadium for a World Cup qualification match with contrasting stakes and narratives. While both teams are coming in off defeats, the visitors eye a strong finish after a mixed campaign, and Bulgaria is desperate to salvage pride after a bruising run.

The duel features Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Georgia, whose flair and creativity add a potent edge to their attack, and Bulgaria’s midfield engine, Ilia Gruev, whose battling qualities provide resilience in a squad in search of form. Both sides have seen their keepers tested frequently, particularly Giorgi Mamardashvili for Georgia, who, despite scorelines, has been one of the standout performers in the group.

A “hot stat”? Bulgaria are still hunting for their first win in 2025 and have scored only once in five group matches, while Georgia thumped Bulgaria 3-0 in their previous head-to-head—clearly, the away side holds the psychological edge.

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Bulgaria vs Georgia prediction

The best value play for this contest is backing Georgia to win. Their recent 3-0 victory over Bulgaria in this group stage, complemented by an objectively higher win rate this year (44 percent), positions them as clear favorites. While their own defense has shown some frailty, Bulgaria’s lack of attacking edge and an abysmal group record (zero wins, one goal from five games, -17 goal difference) suggest their struggles will continue.

Both teams have struggled to control matches—Bulgaria averaging 283 passes per recent game with low accuracy, Georgia clocking in at a stronger but not elite 400, yet both suffer from turnovers under pressure. Bulgaria also commits more fouls on average (12 per game) and this lack of composure frequently gifts set-piece chances to their opponents. Yellow cards are not a chronic issue, but Bulgaria’s discipline is slightly shakier. Expect Georgia to dominate possession, probe Bulgaria’s often disjointed back line, and seize on Bulgarian mistakes.

Team Analysis

Bulgaria:
Bulgaria’s campaign has played out in a near-nightmarish fashion. Their last fixture saw them fall 0-2 at home to Turkey, again failing to muster much threat in front of goal. The statistics are stark: just one goal scored across five group games and vulnerabilities in every sector. Passing accuracy was painfully low, and the side took just nine shots with only a solitary effort on target. The 0-4 loss to Spain before that, as well as a 1-6 defeat to Turkey earlier, only exacerbates their current crisis. Only Gruev has consistently shown composure, but he cannot stem the tide alone.

Georgia:
Georgia, while inconsistent, have at least managed to collect wins and posed a greater offensive threat. Although their latest outing was a heavy 0-4 loss to Spain (mirroring Bulgaria’s), their earlier 3-0 win over this same Bulgarian side showcased their attacking upside—Kvaratskhelia’s movement and Mamardashvili’s silk between the posts were instrumental. Facing Turkey and Spain in quick succession has exposed some defensive limitations, but Georgia’s game plan of solid shape and fast transitions has brought rewards, especially against lesser opponents.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Bulgaria vs Georgia stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Georgia the favourite

• Moneyline Bulgaria 5.65 | Georgia 1.57
• Draw 4.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.68
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.29 | No 1.60

It’s no surprise bookmakers have Georgia as significant favorites. Their past dominance against Bulgaria, much better recent win rate, and a positive attacking edge are reflected in the short odds for an away win. The market sees little hope for Bulgaria, indicated in the long price for a home win, and the value in the “No” for both teams to score is a reflection of Bulgaria’s enduring scoring drought.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Bulgaria possible starting eleven

Mitov remains a stalwart presence in goal, while defenders like Dimitrov and Bozhinov anchor a backline that needs leadership. The midfield will likely revolve around Gruev’s work rate and Despodov’s immediacy in transition. Expect a 4-2-3-1 formation prioritizing defensive solidity but reliant on sharp counters for any chance of a breakthrough.

Georgia possible starting eleven

Mamardashvili starts between the sticks with a reliable back four centered around Kashia and Lochoshvili. The 4-5-1 gives Kvaratskhelia license to roam, and the five-man midfield ensures cover against Bulgarian counters while allowing Davitashvili and Kiteishvili to support in attack. Look for Kvaratskhelia’s creative spark to be central to Georgia’s offensive plans.

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My take on the Match

This looks set to be Georgia’s game to lose, as their superior attacking talent and greater match sharpness should prove decisive. Bulgaria’s fight is more about damage limitation and confidence rebuilding. Assuming Georgia sticks to their recent game plan and Kvaratskhelia enjoys space, expect them to control the rhythm and leave Sofia with a comfortable win—in line with the hot streak they showed in the previous meeting.

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